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Gorlak

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Everything posted by Gorlak

  1. Johnson, Reyes, and Bonifcio were seen to be good players, Reyes was aging and Johnson had injury risks, but were still considered good. Alvarez wasn't liked because off his low K rates, Escobar was liked, but he was told to move him. Dickey was liked and so were the prospects that got sent over, but that's what it costs to get a cy young winner on a 5 mil contract. Napoli was never really liked similar to Cruz.
  2. The only one you list that is correct is JPA, the rest were not seen that way at the time or not significant. Napoli was actually considered garbage by analysts, which is probably why he was shipped out so quickly. You could say he took too many risks and went too big, or that he didn't really appreciate injury risk or depth, but the idea that he didn't use advance stats is just made up. Why would he have brought in Estrada if he didn't use peripherals and expect positive regression?
  3. Yeah that was worded too strongly, but it's not likely to happen very often. I would prefer Bautista leadoff, but I don't think he would be happy with that, and if that's the case the difference between Donaldson and Bautista is close enough that I would prefer the guy who walks more often going before the guy who hits more often. Ideally you want Bautista, Donaldson, Edwin to start the lineup so they get the most plate appearances.
  4. Martin would be a better leadoff hitter than batting 3rd due to his OBP, but I wouldn't want to give that many plate appearances to him with the Jays wealth of great hitters.
  5. Just because in close games the Jays will have a disadvantage in matchups, while they rack up runs in games where it doesn't matter. Made the same call last season and before the upgrades they were at .500, that doesn't prove anything because the sample is way too small. I could be wrong, but I think sequencing isn't pure luck, I think there is a small degree to which you can optimize the results.
  6. Yeah, he's too old to expect a bounce back. Depends what he would cost though.
  7. I'd like a spot, Not a troll.
  8. He said if he had one stat to use for pitchers or hitters it would be K% or BB%, Also what players did he trade for that the saber community did not like?
  9. Chapman is not the good guy in the story, may not be the villain, but not definitely not the good guy. His only punishment will come from MLB so the situation will be chill, deservedly or not. MLB doesn't want to mess with his free agency so he will not be made an example of, could see Reyes getting a worse punishment.
  10. You can't drive somebody in with a walk, for that reason Russel works better at other spots in the lineup. I would keep almost the same lineup as last season, but flip Bautista and Donaldson for the same reason. Leadoff goes to whichever of Tulo or Travis has the better spring, although I would lean towards Tulo.
  11. I think the Jays will underperform their run pythag with this bullpen. I have absolutely no proof, but I have always thought a poor bullpen leads to bad sequencing results, and vise versa.
  12. I'm down if there is still room.
  13. Personally, I would have like the Jays to have signed a couple good relievers and traded Cecil. Would have likely gotten more in future surplus value than the money guaranteed and could rinse and repeat with the acquired relievers. Risky, but 35M in dead money for a 3 seasons wouldn't doom the club anyway, and that is worst case.
  14. Agreed, unless they are under .500 at the break, Then they are probably both gone before the deadline.
  15. Seeing what upper end relief pitchers are commanding in trade, I don't see signing 10M guy as that risky. They will probably have to spend a 2-3 for a guy projected around replacement, those guys have no value if they decide to sell. You also can stretch Osuna out to start, which likely has a ton of value long term.
  16. You can't hedge in perpetuity. Who would have guessed a few years ago oil prices would be a major hindrance to the Jays.
  17. They also overpaid Happ, Did the same thing AA did with Navarro.
  18. Just his way of telling EE he is fine with him leaving, basically. I doubt he had any intension of extending EE anyway. Personally I don't think He wants any contracts he couldn't move easily when he starts the rebuild.
  19. They have cheap contracts that would allow almost any team to afford the trade. Either would net a great return, but hard to get a great mlb pitcher from a team that wants to compete anyway.
  20. Hopefully they do, will be at a serious disadvantage if they don't.
  21. If the rates stay where they are it would be like a 30% tax on payroll to Rogers, A budget of 135 mil U.S. would cost Rogers about 175 mil Canadian.
  22. Agreed, but it also would have been dumb of Rogers to try and replace Beeston behind his back. The exchange rate is going to effect the budget going forward, especially since nobody is really expecting a reversal anytime soon.
  23. This is a .500 club with arguably one of the worst rotations in baseball, a decent starter would do this club a lot of good, although I am weary of trading top prospects for a slightly more favourable role of the dice. I personally would prefer some mild upgrades and then just sign an ace in the offseason, But I think the budget will be cut next season and Rogers will bunt on signing off on a big signing.
  24. Having no money means you have to pay more in talent, so it causes much more damage to the teams future. That's what the Dickey trade was.
  25. Starting to get concerned AA will need to overpay with prospects because he is forced to go after players not getting paid.
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