For the most part I agree, except when there are patterns of extremes... I believe these extremes lead to either mental confidence or lack thereof, respectively. And this can lead to "hot or cold" streaks.
Edwin is the perfect example, he's done it on multiple occasions. Basically no HR in long spans and then hordes of HRs in short spans. And of course HRs are also not subject to BABIP so the point is reinforced.