I'll never bet on the Yankees to finish last. Wherever they go, whoever they play, they are the Yankees. I know it's unsexy to talk about intangibles, but I can't help thinking that the pressure on them to win makes for a greater team (e.g. not such selfish, individualistic plate appearances, situational awareness, the higher 'baseball I.Q.')
I like the Orioles. Well-rounded team makes up for the rotation's deficiencies. Not hard to upgrade that and they probably will.
The Rays are fragile. One or two injuries could spell a poor run, so I'll pick them for fifth. The Red Sox have too much of a lead to truly tank, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Farrell honeymoon came to an abrupt end as they come to terms with the general mediocrity and unreliability of their roster.