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jays4life19

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Everything posted by jays4life19

  1. It's pretty fun, I played last year. 10/10. Would recommend.
  2. I think you better say sorry
  3. I dunnoooo man. This is the league where David Jacob went top 10 so I figured I would check.
  4. Is the obvious guy Jones?
  5. Flame thrower Chad Kuhl could be yours!
  6. 28. MacKenzie Gore, SP, Padres Age (on opening day): 19 Where he played in 2017: Rookie Minor-league stats: 1.27 ERA, 0.98 (21 1/3 IP) If I didn't naturally favor hitters to pitchers when assessing long-term Fantasy impact, Gore rather than Royce Lewis would be my top choice from the 2017 draft. He looks like a beast of prospect, having delivered a 0.19 ERA and 19.1 strikeouts per nine innings his senior year of high school thanks to a deceiving leg kick and top-of-the-line stuff.
  7. This has been the most exciting part of my day so far.
  8. We're trying to play the wheel of banning. so STFU. _____ Polar Bear chooses number #13. I cannot wait any longer for him.
  9. 1. Ryan Mountcastle, 3B DOB: 2/18/1997 Height/Weight: 6’3”, 195 lbs. Bats/Throws: R/R Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 36th overall in the 2015 draft, Paul J. Hagerty HS (Oviedo, FL); signed for $1.3 million. Previous Ranking(s): #2 (Org) 2017 Stats: .222/.239/.366, 3 HR, 0 SB in 39 games at Double-A Bowie; .314/.343/.542, 15 HR, 8 SB in 88 games at High-A Frederick The Good: Bat speed. Power. Big muscular dude. Barrel control. Feel for hitting. Projectability. It may sound like a bad scouting word jumble, and lord knows I’ve been responsible for enough of those, but when you toss all of those in a blender to produce your 20-year-old infield prospect, he’s probably quite a hitting prospect. Which Mountcastle is. The Bad: Where is he going to play? Shortstop wasn’t going to work out, and the Orioles finally acknowledged that with a midseason swap to third. Third is probably the ideal spot for Mountcastle’s body and most of his skills and tools, but his arm is well below the ideal strength for the position, and that might force him elsewhere. Can he range in left? Is he destined for first? That’s a lot of pressure to put on a bat that has high upside but isn’t necessarily a lock to reach it; his selectivity and aggressiveness are potential potholes here, and that showed up in his late-season Double-A trial. The Role: OFP 60—First-division third baseman Likely 50—A starting-quality corner infielder straddling a lot of landmines in his profile The Risks: If it goes bad with the bat, it’s probably going to look a lot like his 39 games to finish the season at Double-A—a horrible OBP and over ten times as many strikeouts as walks. So we’ve certainly got some uncertainty here about whether upper-level pitching can eat up his overaggression. Defensively, he could end up nearly anywhere on the diamond, but you simply can’t expect much value to accrue there. —Jarrett Seidler Major league ETA: 2019 Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: If this sounds like a profile geared towards fantasy leagues, that’s because it is. He’ll take a dip in OBP leagues, points leagues, sim leagues and pretty much anything that’s not a standard 5×5 format, but the combination of potential average and power out of a maybe third baseman is very appealing. The upside is there for a .280 hitter with 25-30 homers, especially in that park, and the RBI totals will trend higher because of his willingness to swing. If this sounds like Nick Castellanos part deux, you’re not wrong—for better or worse. 2. Austin Hays, OF DOB: 7/5/1995 Height/Weight: 6’1”, 195 lbs. Bats/Throws: R/R Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 91st overall in the 2016 draft, Jacksonville University; signed for $665,800. Previous Ranking(s): N/A 2017 Stats: .217/.238/.317, 1 HR, 0 SB in 20 games at the major-league level; .330/.367/.594, 16 HR, 1 SB in 64 games at Double-A Bowie; .328/.364/.592, 16 HR, 4 SB in 64 games at High-A Frederick The Good: At our midseason event at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, a reader asked our panel to name an underrated Orioles prospect, a guy not on the lists. Jeff Long, who knows this system as well as anyone, mentioned Austin Hays, which caused Orioles general manager Dan Duquette to suggest that Hays actually should be on the list. Well, here he is, and this might be our only shot at rating him, because he’s already made the majors less than 15 months after the draft. Hays demolished High-A and Double-A with nearly identical lines, showing off unexpected game power and hitting for high average. We project every tool as average or better… The Bad: …but none better than plus, which leads to the age-old question: is there a carrying tool here? He may be tweenered in the outfield, with an arm well-suited for right but perhaps not the range for regular center duty. Does the hit profile hold up? His minor league numbers are better than his tools projection, even as the projection grew this year too. The line between an average or slightly above-average hit and power player vs. a plus hit and power player is so thin, and yet that thin line is likely the difference for whether Hays has enough bat to firmly establish as a high-end starting outfielder, or something a bit short of that. The Role: OFP 60—First-division starting center or right fielder Likely 50—A competent regular corner outfielder The Risks: Like Mountcastle, Hays has an aggressive approach and could fail to reach first enough against the best pitching, although generally we try not to care about walk rates while players are hitting .330. He’s well-rounded enough that he should have a long career as a fourth outfielder or platoon player even if things go poorly, so there’s a pretty high floor. —Jarrett Seidler Major league ETA: Debuted in 2017 Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Third-round picks generally don’t come out of nowhere to establish themselves as clear-cut top-101 dynasty prospects ready for MLB action, but here we are. Hays comes with a lot of the same disclaimers as Mountcastle in terms of being built for 5×5 fantasy leagues, but carries the same distinct advantages. If it all works, he could be the second coming of Adam Jones without the speed, but with the same overplayed concerns about his plate discipline. 3. DL Hall, LHP DOB: 9/19/1998 Height/Weight: 6’0”, 180 lbs. Bats/Throws: L/L Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 21st overall in the 2017 MLB Draft, Valdosta HS (Valdosta, GA); signed for $3 million Previous Ranking(s): N/A 2017 Stats: 6.97 ERA, 7.72 DRA, 10 ⅓ IP, 10 H, 10 BB, 12 K in 5 games at complex-level GCL The Good: Left-handed? Check. Velo? Check. Spin a breaking ball? Check. These are all the things one likes to see in a high school first-rounder. Hall has superb athleticism and an easy delivery, that portends more strikes down the line. The fastball you can easily project to being plus or better given his quality arm speed and arm action. The breaking ball here is a tight curve, one that got positive grades and negative reactions from HS hitters. While he didn’t do so well in his first pro year, he was on a tight innings limit with a long layoff. The Bad: Size? Eh. Consistency? Ehhh. Hall doesn’t have ideal size for a rotation spot and that will be held against him as he moves up the ladder. While there are reasons for his inconsistencies in pro ball, he was also inconsistent during his senior year. There is effort in his delivery, and a lower slot that can leave all of his stuff flat. The changeup is non-existent at this point. The Role: OFP 55—Mid-rotation starter Likely 45—Good bullpen lefty/no. 5 starter The Risks: high school kid, lacks ideal size, inconsistency of stuff, first year in pro ball, this profile can go in a lot of different ways between now and 2021. Major league ETA: 2021 Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: ME: “Let me give you some advice, Orioles pitching prospect. Never forget what you are. The rest of the world will not. Wear it like armor and it can never be used to hurt you.” DL HALL: “What the hell do you know about being an Orioles pitching prospect? ME: “All fantasy baseball writers are Orioles pitching prospects in their father’s eyes.” 4. Chance Sisco, C DOB: 2/24/1995 Height/Weight: 6’2”, 195 lbs. Bats/Throws: L/R Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 61st overall in the 2013 draft, Santiago HS (Corona, CA); signed for $785,000. Previous Ranking(s): #1 (Org), #76 (Top 101) 2017 Stats: .333/.455/.778, 2 HR, 0 SB in 10 games at the major-league level; .267/.340/.395, 7 HR, 2 SB in 97 games at Triple-A Norfolk The Good: The longer he stays at catcher coming up through the chain, the more likely it is that he’ll remain at catcher in the majors. He’s still not going to knock anyone dead with his arm, but we care less about that in the 2010s than we did in most prior eras of baseball, and Sisco has improved receiving skills behind the plate. He retains significant hit tool projection, and up until this year the batting average usually started with three. The Bad: The batting average didn’t start with three this year. Sisco struggled for the first extended run of his professional career, and his profile can’t really afford to lose 50 points across the slash line like that. With power and speed both relative non-factors the profile, he’s going to have to compile nearly all of his value from getting on base and being able to play catcher, and playing catcher regularly has been known to degrade those offensive skills. The Role: OFP 55—A catcher who can hit .300 is still really cool Likely 45—A platoon bat who catches some and plays elsewhere some feels like a role that should exist, but doesn’t The Risks: He still might not be a guy that many teams want to run out at catcher 115 times a year behind the dish. If he combines that with a line that looks closer to 2017 than 2016 or prior, he might be Josh Thole without the special knuckleball catching abilities. This has become a hard profile to keep around as a backup catcher or third catcher/utility player given the shortness of benches, so Sisco really needs to start to guarantee a long-term MLB role. —Jarrett Seidler Major league ETA: Debuted in 2017 Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: For a hitter who’s going to need to rely on his batting average to draw fantasy impact into his profile, a sharp increase in strikeouts at Triple-A is never a good thing. He’s still looking at a potential .290 with 10-15 dingers future, but if that average becomes .260 or .270 instead, it won’t raise him up above the noise that is the glut of uninteresting and unwanted fantasy catchers out there. 5. Cedric Mullins, OF DOB: 10/1/1994 Height/Weight: 5’8”, 175 lbs. Bats/Throws: S/L Drafted/Acquired: Drafted in the 13th round of the 2015 draft from Campbell University (Buies Creek, NC); signed for $100,000. Previous Ranking(s): N/A 2017 Stats: .265/.319/.460, 13 HR, 9 SB in 76 games at Double-A Bowie The Good: Mullins was a buzzy player coming out of camp, and got a surprise aggressive assignment to Double-A to open the season. As you’d expect for his size, he’s a plus-plus runner home-to-first. As you might not expect, the offensive profile is somewhat driven by average to slightly-above power, especially from the left side of the plate. He’s a fine defender capable of playing all three outfield positions, and does possess a lot of the skills you typically associate with smaller players, like good bunting skills and sharp instincts on the field. Toss in a sweet-looking lefty swing with above-average bat speed, and this starts sounding like a player. The Bad: He’s been consistently impotent with the bat from the right side while crushing it from the left side, and multiple looks in our database over his career have noted that his hitting and power just profiles better as a left-handed hitter. We generally don’t suggest switch-hitters give up a side, but it’s unusual to see a “natural” lefty continue to switch-hit if he’s this bad right-handed. He was plagued by hamstring problems for much of the 2017 regular season, and didn’t run as much or quite as well as he had in the past. And, of course, he’s tiny. The Role: OFP 55 — Good starting center fielder that has flu-like symptoms a lot against David Price Likely 45 — Nifty fourth outfielder that does a bit of everything off the bench The Risks: He might be best suited for a super-platoon role, where he could see a healthy amount of right-handed pitching at the top of the order and be a late-inning bench weapon on his off-days, but that role is easier to pull off in simulation leagues than in reality. As with Hays, there are more than enough secondary skills here for a long, long career as a reserve or platoon player if things don’t all come together. —Jarrett Seidler Major league ETA: Late 2018 Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The difference between Mullins being an interesting fantasy outfielder and a really interesting fantasy outfielder is just how much of that power jump is due to a friendly environment in Bowie and how much is actually development of his in-game power. The glimpse of a 15-homer, 25-steal outfielder is there if he can just secure a starting role. 6. Hunter Harvey, RHP DOB: 12/9/1994 Height/Weight: 6’3”, 175 lbs. Bats/Throws: R/R Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 22nd overall in the 2013 draft, Bandys HS (Catawba, NC); signed for $1.9476 million. Previous Ranking(s): Others of Note 2017 Stats: 2.08 ERA, 2.93 DRA, 8 ⅔ IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 14 K in 3 games at Low-A Delmarva; 0.00 ERA, 2.23 DRA, 5 IP, 1 H, 3 BB, 10 K in 2 games at short-season Aberdeen; 0.00 ERA, 2.81 DRA, 5 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 3 games at complex-level GCL The Good: After being expected to miss all of 2017 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, Harvey unexpectedly showed up in the GCL in mid-July, dominating hitters in the lower levels of the minors like he’d never missed a beat and making it back to full-season ball for the first time since 2014. When healthy, he features a mix of three major-league quality pitches: a fastball that runs up to the mid-90s with life, a beautifully-shaped curve that ranks as one of the most impressive righty curves you’ll see, and a change that projects as average and flashes higher. Since he was showing that kind of ability again late in the season, even if just throwing two or three innings once a week, the Orioles had little choice but to add him to the 40-man roster in the offseason. He’s already reported to Sarasota for a rookie minicamp and seems healthy… The Bad: Harvey has only pitched 31 ⅓ innings combined since his initial elbow injury, a span of three-plus seasons now. After being shut down in July 2014 for what seemed like precautionary generic elbow soreness reasons at the time, Harvey broke his leg in spring training in 2015, then experienced further elbow tightness while ramping it up later that summer. He ultimately never made it out of the complex that season. Spring 2016 brought success and apparent health in a stint on the major-league side, but then he pulled his groin in one of his last starts before breaking minor-league camp, an injury that lingered before being rediagnosed as a hernia in May. After finally getting back to affiliated ball on rehab assignment, Harvey only made it five starts before blowing out his elbow and having Tommy John surgery at the end of July. We didn’t even rank him numerically in the org last offseason under the expectation that he’d miss most or all of 2017. The Role: We did decide to rank Harvey this year, but filing grades on him like a normal prospect would be an exercise in insanity. He’s still flashed top-of-the-rotation potential in his rare bouts of health, and if moved to relief he’d profile as a late-inning arm. But the “likely” has to be that he’s too injured to pitch many innings at this point, doesn’t it? Would a grade like OFP 70/Likely 40 really tell you anything? The Risks: Major league ETA: Essentially, the next time he’s healthy for two months in a row. That could easily be as soon as later in 2018. —Jarrett Seidler Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: If the best predictor of future injury is past injury then Harvey was probably moved to the disabled list while you were reading this sentence. The combination of the insane health risk, the bad park/league/division/team and just the fact that he’s an Orioles’ pitching prospect would make me not want to roster Harvey in a league with 200 or fewer prospects owned. If your league is deeper, I guess just keep your fingers crossed. 7. Keegan Akin, LHP DOB: 4/1/1995 Height/Weight: 6’0”, 225 lbs. Bats/Throws: L/L Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 54th overall in the 2016 draft, Western Michigan University; signed for $1.1772 million. Previous Ranking(s): #6 (Org) 2017 Stats: 4.14 ERA, 5.19 DRA, 100 IP, 89 H, 46 BB, 111 K in 21 games at High-A Frederick The Good: The thick-bodied southpaw offers an attractive high-floor back-end starter toolset, albeit one without much upside. He is the consummate “command and control lefty” (CCL) whose ability to locate allows an average repertoire to play up. His sinker settles in at 90-91 mph (t95) with average movement but excellent command low in the zone to the corners against hitters from both sides. It is an above-average pitch with his ability to locate it. His best secondary is a changeup that he locates well down in the zone but is inconsistent at present. He maintains his arm speed and throws it with conviction, allowing it to project to above-average. Add in a fringe-average slider for a workable third look, and you can pencil him in every fifth day as your no.5. With refinement, he could be a bit more. The Bad: As with the general CCL profile, the margin for error here is pretty slim. If the command backs up or the slider is not sharp or the change-up consistency doesn’t come, Akin will fall into a no. 6-7 starter/long relief role. Without a true plus pitch, he’ll be relying on lots of soft contact at the highest level. The Role: OFP 50—No. 4 starting pitcher Likely 45—No. 5 starting pitcher The Risks: Few. Akin is what he is, and it has MLB value. —John Eshleman Major league ETA: Late 2019 Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Yes, the pitcher who’s made 13 appearances over the last three years is sandwiched between a DL and an Akin. It really tells you all you need to know about yourself if you’re staring at a (BAL – SP) on your farm team. 8. D.J. Stewart, OF DOB: 11/20/1993 Height/Weight: 6’0”, 230 lbs. Bats/Throws: L/R Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 25th overall in the 2015 draft, Florida State University; signed for $2.0645. Previous Ranking(s): Others of Note 2017 Stats: .278/.378/.481, 21 HR, 20 SB in 126 games at Double-A Bowie The Good: Stewart has kept himself on the prospect map by hitting, and 2017 was no exception. He has an athletic swing and one of the better approaches in minor league baseball. While some of the power spike this year was likely due to the friendly confines in Bowie, he does have potentially average power as well. The Bad: You’d like Stewart to hit more given the rest of the package. The swing is the only thing you can really describe as athletic here. He’s a below-average runner with a below average arm and the best you can hope for is a fringy left fielder with the glove. So he’ll need to keep hitting. He’s also a bit older than you might expect. The Role: OFP 50—Average left fielder Likely 45—Second-division corner dude The Risks: Medium. Guys that can hit usually find some sort of major-league role, but it’s tough to be a good everyday corner guy without louder offensive tools. Major league ETA: Late 2018 Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Finally, back to the hitters. Stewart has been put up strong plate discipline stats since he came into pro ball, but is no lock to provide the type of power he’ll need to in order to be worth worrying about in shallow mixed leagues. Despite the stat lines (especially last year’s), there’s really not a fantasy carrying tool, which would leave him as a forgettable OF4 even if all works out. 9. Zac Lowther, LHP DOB: 4/30/1996 Height/Weight: 6’2”, 235 lbs. Bats/Throws: L/L Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 74th overall in the 2017 draft, Xavier University; signed for $779,500. Previous Ranking(s): N/A 2017 Stats: 1.66 ERA, 0.71 DRA, 54 ⅓ IP, 35 H, 11 BB, 75 K in 12 games at short-season Aberdeen The Good: Lowther is an analytical darling, breaking out on the Cape in 2016 by striking out a ton of batters and walking almost no one, and he hasn’t looked back. His meteoric rise culminated when the Orioles popped him in the second round last summer and sent him to the NYPL, where he continued to dominate hitters. His sexy numbers aren’t totally backed up when you see him in person, but after enough looks you start get an idea of where it comes from. Despite a funky delivery and arm action, Lowther displays plus control and command. He works heavily off his fastball, throwing it to all parts of the plate, and through a combination of location, deception, high spin rate, and a little something extra, batters simply cannot pick up the ball. The pitch misses a lot of bats and generates weak contact despite its pedestrian velocity (88-92). Lowther will also work in a breaking ball at times that flashes above-average as well. The Bad: The fastball velocity is concerning, and his heavy usage might not stand up to scrutiny at the higher levels. The breaking ball can flash above-average, but it is often inconsistent and loose. His changeup is merely an afterthought, only poking its head out a couple of times per game. His body is totally maxed out, so there nothing else coming physically. If he loses his command, which he might do as he starts receiving longer workloads, he becomes very hittable, very fast. The Role: OFP 50—No. 4 starter Likely 45— Swingman The Risks: Everything about this profile (big body, low velocity, funky arm action, lefty) screams reliever, but take your hand away from the panic button just yet. Lowther will need to prove it at the higher levels, but there is a chance he turns into a decent rotation piece. And even if he doesn’t, the strikeouts and endurance might make him an interesting candidate for a different kind of relief pitcher. Major league ETA: 2020 Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: More like everything about this profile screams pass. 10. Tanner Scott, LHP DOB: 7/22/1994 Height/Weight: 6’2”, 220 lbs. Bats/Throws: R/L Drafted/Acquired: Drafted in the 6th round of the 2014 draft, Howard Junior College (Big Spring, TX); signed for $650,000. Previous Ranking(s): Others of Note 2017 Stats: 10.80 ERA, 2.81 DRA, 1 ⅔ IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 2 games at the major-league level; 2.22 ERA, 4.20 DRA, 69 IP, 45 H, 46 BB, 87 K in 24 games at Double-A Bowie The Good: Premium velocity from the left side. It’s easy upper-90s and when he’s in one inning stints expect triple digits. The slider is potentially average with good tilt in the high-80s. He is more athletic and has less effort in the delivery than you would generally expect from this profile The Bad: Scott made 24 starts this year and threw a nice 69 innings. This was a designed plan to get him some extra work, but does not portend a future in the rotation. He only works from the stretch, and there is not enough changeup here to start. This is a reliever all the way, and you’d like to see a little more slider and a lot more command before you throw a ninth inning grade on him. The Role: OFP 50—Set-up dude Likely 40—Middle reliever The Risks: It’s major league reliever stuff right now, but the guys pitching meaningful innings in major league pens tend to throw more strikes than Scott. If it clicks? He’s a late-inning arm, if it doesn’t? Well you can find 8 fastballs a lot easier nowadays. Major league ETA: Debuted in 2017 Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Remember what it was like to be reading about systems where there wasn’t a straight reliever in the top-10? Like the Padres. That was a great list. Remember how just kept going further and further down and kept thinking to yourself “wow, the fantasy value just keeps going and going” and then you got the to Next Ten and it just didn’t stop. You even got to the end and noticed a couple of recent international signings didn’t make the list who you’d wanted to read about and you weren’t even mad because all of the players who did make the list were interesting. Maybe the next system will be better. *checks Top 10 schedule Okay fine there’s always next year.
  10. "The State of the System: Filled with a bunch of likely relievers and guys without firm positions, this is nevertheless one of the better Orioles systems in recent memory." lol
  11. I'll give polar bear a chance to participate in the banning game and if not, I will post a number within the time frame.
  12. I have a feeling you will be picking a number in the near future.
  13. Hunter Greene is high
  14. Wrong thread friendo.
  15. Well that's one way to lose a ticket.
  16. f*** to the noooooo
  17. Hellssss to the yessssss
  18. ok now its over
  19. Not quite.
  20. OK now it's over.
  21. ...every time you think it's over
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