8. Logan Allen, LHP
DOB: 5/23/1997
Height/Weight: 6’3” / 200 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/L
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted in the 8th round by the Red Sox in the 2015 MLB Draft, IMG Academy (Bradenton, FL); signed for $725,000. Acquired from the Red Sox for Craig Kimbrel.
Previous Ranking(s): #9 (Org)
2018 Stats: 1.63 ERA, 6.12 DRA, 27 2/3 IP, 21 H, 13 BB, 24 K in 5 games at Triple-A El Paso; 2.75 ERA, 3.35 DRA, 121 IP, 89 H, 38 BB, 125 K in 20 games at Double-A San Antonio
The Report: Allen dominated in difficult pitching environments in the upper minors in 2018. He won’t blow you away with his stuff like some of the other Padres prospects, and he has the least gaudy radar gun readings among the arms in this Top 10. Allen’s fastball sits a couple ticks either side of 90, but there’s enough cut to keep it off barrels and the deception in his delivery makes it sneaky fast at times. The delivery has a bit of lefty funk which has impacted his ability to throw strikes at times, but he’ll also show you outings where he’s pumping the bottom of the zone to both sides.
The major difference maker for him in 2018 has been the development of his slider, which he manipulates between cutter action with deceptive late depth and a more traditional two-plane breaker. It tunnels off the fastball well and could be the bat-misser that he previously lacked. Allen also has a high-70s curve that he struggles to wrangle into a consistent shape and a change he uses sparingly.
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9. Michel Baez, RHP
DOB: 1/21/1996
Height/Weight: 6’8” / 220 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Signed December 2016 by the Padres out of Cuba for $3 million.
Previous Ranking(s): #5 (Org), #52 (Top 101)
2018 Stats: 7.36 ERA, 3.22 DRA, 18 1/3 IP, 22 H, 12 BB, 21 K in 4 games at Double-A San Antonio; 2.91 ERA, 4.01 DRA, 86 2/3 IP, 73 H, 33 BB, 92 K in 17 games at High-A Lake Elsinore
The Report: Baez looks like a cardboard cutout of Dellin Betances; he stands a comparable 6-foot-8 with broad shoulders, but without the same supporting width through his hips and lower half. He leverages that height to generate outstanding plane from an unusual angle, and the combination of a fastball that’ll tickle 96 and a tumbling change from on high can give hitters fits when he’s consistent through his progressions to slot. He’ll work two variants of spin into the mix as well, with a tight slider in the low-80s that’ll flash two-plane action and decent bite, along with a mid-70s curve that teases with solid finish and dropping action. The former shows more promise to develop into a solid-average chaser, although there are at present just as many gutters as strikes with both offerings.
The Role:
OFP 60—No. 3 starter or high-leverage bullpen arm
Realistic 50—No. 4 starter or setup
The Risks: The above “when he’s consistent” disclaimer is a big “if,” however. While he indeed flashed better-than-most ability to repeat, the sheer length of his delivery combined with a top-heavy frame lead to periodic struggles maintaining balance and timing through his delivery. There’s reliever risk here if his command never comes together, though his stuff and mound presence would make him an excellent option to emerge from a swinging bullpen gate if it comes to that. —Wilson Karaman