I have a question and this might be silly but I never delved too much into the analytics of it all - but why are certain players, despite doing badly, assumed to do really well down the road while players that are performing well assumed to return to below league average?
I am only asking this because the community here strongly backs Jansen but not Gurriel Jr., in that we firmly expect Jansen to bounce back but have doubts as to whether Gurriel can keep a .290+ BA/.900+ OPS as a LF, as a regular.
Why is that? Is it just metrics from minors? Is there no room for improvement beyond what they are deemed to be by scouts or projections by fangraphs/BA/steamer/w.e?
Similarly, why is it that players like Luke Maile can go on a tear (mid last year?) but all of a sudden completely go ice cold for 1.5 yrs? Is that just luck? Why does someone's approach and attitude towards pitches change so drastically that they go from .300 to .150-.200? Are coaches comparing the two different styles and trying to leverage the player back to how they were, and if they are, why isn't it working or why isn't there growth?
I am just so confused, amazed almost, at why there isn't a growth in character and approach of a lot of these players (aside from our core, no one is even coming remotely close to being remarkable) - like teoscar ... is someone working with him to improve his mechanics? If so, why is he not improving in any shape or manner? Are we simply committing to the assumption that he is a league below average player and will always be - why is that, why simply write him off "FIND A REPLACEMENT!"? Why is baseball, or at least Blue Jays baseball, one of the only sports where improvement is so rare across games, seasons, careers even and the answer to a better team is always find a better player?
P.S. I am not asking about the "X factor" - there will be greats like Trout and probably (hopefully) Vlad; I am just asking of simple improvements and hard work and ethics - improving your BA (I know this is a derpy metric, but its simple to understand for people like me) by say .10 every month until you get to something reasonable like .270.
Anyway, sorry for the whole shenanigan - every time I watch the Jays (and I watch them almost every day, lose or win, rain or shine), I keep wondering these things.