Think 'selling' is the wrong word but, more appropriately phrased, should we relinquish the farm to make a deep playoff run this year or retool?
The latter involves making trades like Jansen to the Astros for their best pitching prospect who is almost MLB-ready as a reliever, possibly a starter, rather than trading Groshans/Martinez/Moreno.
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We have some glaring holes even if we do make playoffs, and they are getting exposed every single time we face a possible postseason candidate (we have a winning record on Astros & Sox, but we haven't faced their resurgence yet and Astros are now projected to have the highest odds to win it all this season).
93% to make the WC berth and then eh, depending on a crapshoot to win a postseason series is a very aggravating way to go through your season.
The most egregious of it is pitching (as a whole) as we only have two starters who have had success (we'll see if Gausman can have two strong back-to-back starts tomorrow) - Berrios/Kikuchi both have negative WAR.
Stripling can be a starter but as seen against Yankees, he could at best go 3-4 innings defaulting to a bullpen - the veterans in the BP can't be trusted to not give up a run or get BABIP'd in case of Cimber/Phelps (even Mayza is unravelling).
In the postseason, moving Berrios (in his current form) and Kikuchi to the bullpen does not inspire confidence.
In other words, a combined bullpen game that the Rays can pull off is just not feasible with our current roster.
Don't get me wrong - Castillo & Gage look promising, but this is their rookie year so we don't have much data on how they will fare across a season, what adjustments will teams make and in response, are adjustments available for these two to make.
We also have significant inconsistency from Bo & Teo (300 PAs), both defensively and offensively (2 and 5 hitters).
In fact, if Kirk has not become the player he has offensively, we'd have just Vladdy to feel ecstatic about and, perhaps with tempered optimism, Biggio & Gurriel.
Our DH options involve Moreno (a rookie), Tapia or Zimmer - assuming the projected postseason roster is in play. I hate the way we use our DH spot (even though it makes sense) because it severely limits Moreno's playing time and his ability to grow/learn major league pitching.
In effect, we need
1. A Bonafide postseason starting pitcher (unless Berrios finds consistency in the next 4 - though two of those starts are against As and Royals, so he has to show up for the Rays and Mariners games)
2. Two swing/miss relievers (at least one of whom is as close to elite as you can get)
3. A LH DH Bat
And even then, you need Bo/Teo to start having competitive ABs (Teo has been having better ABs but he also started chasing that off-plate slider again) with their defense not being a liability, Chapman's offense to regress to the mean (he's still en route to be a 3 WAR guy as is), and no injuries whatsoever in the OF because our bench in that department (again) is Tapia/Zimmer.
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As for the discussion regarding FO, I have mixed feelings.
I think Atkins wanted a much more competitive front-line and was willing to sign Verlander, Ray (but his vaccination status probably put a halt on this), and JRam. I think given all the restrictions he has had in front of him, he still managed to get Chapman and Gausman (and not leave those positions unanswered).
He possibly had to take a gamble on Kikuchi (who he might've only been able to sign with a 3-yr contract else Kikuchi would've signed somewhere else) because that was the only 'starter' remaining on the market who was willing to come to Toronto. Pete Walker obviously signed off on the pet project that is Kikuchi - projecting that he can tweak something to make him another Ray.
You just don't know what the realistic backend of building the roster was like and can't really sign off saying "oh they were just reckless or didn't care". Like, there is no way you can say Berrios being bad is on Atkins considering the history Berrios has had since his time in majors.
Bullpen is another matter but I wasn't paying attention to what amazing bullpen arms were available in the offseason - any one that we could've realistically signed?
That said, the pitching scouting/development needs some work (whether its already in motion and is taking time - you see the development in Hernandez, Tiedemann; or simply needs a revamp). Look at LAD, lots of starting pitching injuries - yet managed to find Anderson and turn him into a bonafide ace-esque pitcher. Yankees found Taillon, Holmes etc. We are dishing heavy money/prospect-player capital for average pitching while most of the high-end competitive clubs are finding relatively cheap assets and turning them into all-stars.
/essay done