Start this s*** off with BP:
1. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s dangerous to read too much into a month’s worth of
major-league plate appearances, especially when that month
is September. Maybe Corey Seager took advantage of 40-man
roster fodder and teams with one foot on the golf course to
hit .337/.425/.561 as the 2015 season waned, but that’s pretty
consistent with what he has done at every other stop in his professional
career. He hits for average. He hits for power. He may
not be a shortstop forever, as he is a very large human, but the
bat is good enough to play anywhere. Regardless, Seager will be
the Dodgers shortstop in 2016, and he may very well be the best
one in the National League from the moment he sets foot on the
field Opening Day.
2. Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins
It may be an exercise in hyperbole to refer to our no. 2 prospect
as a “post-hype sleeper” (especially since he’s been our no. 1
prospect the last two years), but in an industry always on the
lookout for the next new hotness, Buxton qualifies as old news.
It doesn’t help his Q rating (or for the Millennials reading, his
Klout score) that he missed most of 2014 with a wrist injury
and then a concussion, or that he looked overmatched at times
in his first taste of the majors. As the old scouting adage goes,
“tools play,” and Buxton’s selection rivals your local Ace Hardware.
He may not be the next Andre Dawson, as we opined in
2013, but Buxton still looks like an impact major leaguer.
3. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals
Last year was a good one for the Giolito clan. Showtime announced
a Twin Peaks revival (Lucas’ uncle co-created it with
David Lynch, and his grandfather played Dr. Will Heyward, the
remarkably normal town coroner), and the youngest Giolito
made it all the way to Double-A, striking out better than a batter
per inning and flashing true top-of-the-scouting-scale stuff
along the way. He is now more than three years removed from
the UCL tear that kept him from going first overall in the 2012
draft, and with an invitation to Nationals spring training already
secured, Giolito may soon be on the hunt for some cherry pie
and a damn fine cup of coffee in the nation’s capital.
4. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Crawford will inevitably draw comparisons to Jimmy Rollins,
his predecessor in Philadelphia (future histories will gloss over
the Freddy Galvis epoch). Both were early-round picks and African-American
shortstops out of high schools in California. Sure,
it’s not fair to saddle him with this comp: Rollins is a first-ballot
Hall of Very Good player who won an MVP and made multiple
All-Star games. Crawford may not reach those lofty heights, but
he is a true five-tool player and the total package at shortstop.
5. Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers
Texas invested more than $5 million in Mazara, setting the record
for a bonus given to a 16-year-old amateur the year before
international bonus pools were implemented. He’s rewarded
their investment with a quick ascent through Texas’ system,
showing a rare set of offensive tools on a long-levered, 6-foot-
5 frame. Mazara has a pure left-handed stroke that should
produce both contact and home run power at above-average
outputs. The fluidity of his swing path—supplied by long arms
and a physical frame—gives an effortless look to a left-handed
stroke that elicits some Will Clark comparisons. Mazara throws
well but only moves fairly to decently defensively; while he
ultimately could wind up in either outfield corner, it’s the hitting
tools that give him legitimate middle-order, All-Star upside. It
also makes him one of baseball’s best prospects entering his
age-21 season. Mazara had a successful 20-game stint at Triple-A
to end 2015. It isn’t unreasonable to foresee him mashing
his way into the Rangers' lineup at some point in the upcoming
season.
6. Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Following prospects is a great way to be continuously aware
of your own encroaching mortality. Urias is not the youngest
player on this list, but he did spend most of last season as an
18-year-old, and he finished it in Triple-A. This isn’t just agerelative-to-league
novelty: The stuff is potentially elite, and he
has pitchability beyond his years. Urias was dominant in 2015
while only facing two batters who were younger than him (both
during rehab). His combination of youth, polish and stuff draws
comparisons to Felix Hernandez, in part because he is very good
and in part because there’s no one else similar in recent history.
The cold water: Unlike Felix at the same age, Urias has never
thrown even 90 innings in a season, and may not be able to handle
a full 200-inning workload until 2018. But he will be getting
major-league hitters out well before then.
7. Yoan Moncada, 2B, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox paid $31.5 million dollars for the 19-year-old
Moncada ($63 million if you include the 100 percent tax Boston
had to pay for exceeding their bonus pool), giving a glimpse
into a world where the top amateur talent is allowed to freely
negotiate their services with teams, a scenario more horrifying
to baseball owners than anything dreamed up by David
Cronenberg. So far Moncada has looked well worth the money
(which is more than you could say for Crash), showing five
average-or-better tools in the South Atlantic League. Moncada
has work to do at second base and may fit better at third,
where he would have more than enough arm for the position. At
either spot, the bat has the potential to anchor the middle of a
major-league lineup.
8. Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers
Shortly after he was called up to the majors, Gallo hit a home
run off Clayton Kershaw. The box score describes it as going out
to deep right field, but that dry recitation of the facts does it no
justice. It was a moment that makes you understand why Russian
audiences nearly rioted after hearing The Rites of Spring
for the first time. It was an ode to atonality on the baseball
diamond, a burst of free jazz. Unfortunately, in Gallo’s other 122
major-league plate appearances, his bat was more of a wind
instrument, as he struck out 57 times (including in all three of
his other plate appearances against the Dodgers that day). The
swing-and-miss issues continued after his demotion to Triple-A.
He wields true 80 raw power, and we live in an era when teams
stomach even a 30 percent strikeout rate if the player can play
third base and hit majestic dingers that cause those in atten-
dance to reconsider centuries of acceptable artistic form and
their place in the universe. But any more whiff than that and
you’re looking at just another Quad-A Salieri.
9. Steven Matz, LHP, New York Mets
It seems odd to call someone who made three playoff starts for
the National League pennant winner a prospect, but Prospect
List protocol demands it. A torn lat muscle and a stiff back in
the second half kept Matz from accruing enough service time to
graduate, but he did pitch enough for the Mets to show off three
average-or-better major-league offerings, including a plusplus
fastball and plus curve. He also has begun to work on the
vaunted “Warthen Slider,” which you may remember from such
70-grade offerings as Matt Harvey’s and Jacob deGrom’s.
10. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Reyes has one of the most electric right arms in the minors. His
fastball sits in the upper 90s and touches triple digits. He pairs
that with a potential wipeout curve that he can throw for strikes
or bury to put away hitters. He struggles at times to harness
both pitches, and his command of the fastball is presently
below average. The optimist might say that just means he has
a chance to get even better, and minor-league hitters were no
match for him in 2015 as it stood. The pessimist might point to
the command troubles and the lack of an average changeup
projection, and see “only” a good late-inning arm. Both would
probably agree he has one of the highest ceilings of any current
pitching prospect.
11. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Last season was more of the same for the Pirates’ top prospect,
for both good and ill. Glasnow continued to show a fastball that
can touch the high 90s and a curve that will flash plus. When
both are working, he looks like a guy who will strike out a batter
per inning in the majors, much like he's done at every other
stop so far. Glasnow does struggle from tall-pitcher syndrome
at times (he's listed at 6-foot-8), where his delivery can get out
of whack, causing both his control and command to suffer. The
stuff is good enough that even with those issues, he should
pitch in the middle of a major-league rotation for a while, perhaps
as soon as this year, but the ceiling if he ever works out the
mechanical issues is as high as any arm on this list.
12. Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
With improvements across the board in 2015, Arcia turned himself
into an archetypal shortstop prospect. He is smooth in the
field, equipped with a plus arm and plus projection in the glove.
The hitting took a large step forward as well. Arcia has always
been able to put bat to ball, but he added strength in 2015 and
can now get the ball over the infielders. He's not a double-digit
home run threat yet, but pitchers will need to be careful challenging
him, because he can drive the ball in both gaps and let
his plus-plus legs wreak havoc from home to third. The defense/
speed combination was likely going to make him a useful major
leaguer regardless, but now he bats second instead of eighth.
13. Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals
In a scene that Tom Stoppard probably left on the cutting-room
floor, Turner spent the first half of 2015 playing for an organization
that had already traded him. Everyone knew this; most just
nodded along politely and hoped he didn't twist an ankle. He
didn't, and even got a new rule named after him. (Draftees can
now be traded after the World Series rather than their teams
having to wait a year to move them. See Dansby Swanson's inclusion
in the Shelby Miller trade this offseason for an example.)
Despite his high overall ranking, Turner could get overlooked
on a list this deep in shortstop talent. He is a very good runner,
but doesn't have Ozhaino Albies' or Jorge Mateo’s gaudy stolen-base
totals. He is a solid defender, but isn't a potential Gold
Glover like Orlando Arcia or Raul Mondesi. And he can hit, but
the offensive profile isn't as tantalizing as J.P. Crawford's. Unlike
those five names, Turner is already a major leaguer. The Nationals
brought in Stephen Drew to provide a little competition, but
Turner should reach his rightful place before too long.
14. Manuel Margot, OF, San Diego Padres
Margot's high ranking here is thanks in part to a renewed
emphasis on defense across the game. This is not to suggest
that potentially plus center-field gloves were ever at risk of
becoming passé in scouting circles, but it's easier to get on the
bandwagon in an era when the Royals have won back-to-back
pennants. Margot won't be hitting in the eight hole, either: He's
shown some bat-to-ball ability and gets more power out of his
sub-six-foot frame than you'd expect. The party piece here is the
speed/defense combination, which should get plenty of work in
the still-spacious Petco outfield.
15. Lewis Brinson, OF, Texas Rangers
Have bat, will travel. Brinson made five stops in 2015, playing
in three different time zones from April 9th more or less straight
through to the end of the year. No matter how short or long his
stay, he impressed the locals by putting balls over the fence,
socking 20-plus home runs in less than a season’s worth of
games. He also cut his strikeouts to a relatively reasonable
rate in this day and age. You’d like to see him do more outside
the very friendly confines of High Desert, but last year was a
breakout from start to finish. Feel free to dream on some 20/20
seasons from a plus center fielder.
16. Raul Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals
One of two players on this list to play in the 2015 World Series,
Mondesi did not fair as well as Matz, striking out against Noah
Syndergaard in his one plate appearance. He does head back
to Northwest Arkansas with a big ring, a large playoff share and
one of the odder Baseball Reference pages out there. Mondesi
struggled in his first taste of the Texas League, as you might
expect from a 19-year-old who has never been even league average
on offense at any of his full-season stops. But the Royals
may continue to be aggressive with his development track, as
the glove will play in the high minors even if the bat is presently
overmatched. If he does learn to hit, and the tools are certainly
there, Mondesi is a slam-dunk first-division shortstop.
17. Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins
The flip side of Tyler Glasnow, Berrios gets knocked for the usual
short-pitcher reasons. It starts with phrases like “fastball lacks
downward plane” and usually ends with “may be best suited to
relief.” A lot of scouting is about comps, and there aren't many
short, slim, right-handed starters in baseball. Berrios might
bust the quota with three potential plus pitches, including a
devastating changeup. There is a track record of durability here
too, at least by pitching-prospect standards. Berrios tossed 166
innings in the upper minors this year, four fewer than Dylan
Bundy has thrown in his entire professional career. That sure
looks like a starting-pitcher profile, even if he doesn't look like
most starting pitchers.
18. Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees
Judge should make his debut in the Bronx sometime in 2016,
but it feels like a man of his proportions and potential needs a
nickname. For opposing pitchers he might very well be “Judge
Dredd,” or when he fires one back up the box, “Judge Holden.”
Or maybe his 6-foot-7 frame holds “the long arms of the law.”
(When they get extended the 70-grade raw power definitely
plays.) All right, these aren't as good as “Death to Flying Things”
(although Judge should be a good defensive right fielder), so
maybe we'll just let his bat do the talking when he gets to East
161st Street.
19. Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox
“Raw” isn't the first adjective that usually comes to mind when
discussing a prospect who hit over .300 in Double-A, but Anderson
is unusual. A basketball state champion in high school, he
didn't play baseball until his junior year, and spent two years in
junior college before being drafted. He still gets by even as he’s
catching up, in part due to his loud athletic tools. His stats grow
harder to hand wave as his competition improves, even though
his approach is still quite unrefined. Anderson may require a
longer adjustment period against major-league pitching than
other prospect bats in this range, and questions about his
long-term position remain, but given how rapidly his skills have
matured in pro ball, this might be the last time “raw” shows up
in his scouting reports.
20. Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies
Rodgers was the third straight shortstop taken to start the 2015
draft, but he may end up the best of the troika. He won't get to
the majors as quickly as Dansby Swanson or Alex Bregman, the
two SEC players picked ahead of him, but with a potential plus
hit–plus power offensive profile and a glove that will keep him
on the left side of the diamond, Rodgers may be worth the extra
wait. Fortunately, time is one thing the Rockies have had plenty
of lately.
21. Blake Snell, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Snell vaulted to the top of our Tampa Bay Top 10 list after
burning through three levels of the minors with a 1.41 ERA. Minor-league
ERA not your thing? Understandable. He also fanned
163 batters in 134 innings while giving up only 84 hits. The stuff
more than matches the gaudy stats: Snell features a 92–94 mph
fastball with excellent movement and life and pairs it with a
plus slider and a potentially solid-average change. The only
quibble is that you'd like to see him iron out his control issues
before he debuts in the Trop, which will likely be sometime in
2016.
22. Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Meadows has yet to grow into the power some forecast for him
as a top-10 pick in 2013, but there is little else here to complain
about. He's so far assuaged concerns that he can stick in the
middle of the diamond, and his swing still draws raves from
scouts. He may never develop even average home run power,
but he should knock plenty of doubles. That, combined with
his overall hitting acumen and ability to play center field, has
drawn comparisons to Christian Yelich.
23. Bradley Zimmer, OF, Cleveland Indians
Zimmer struggled in his first taste of Double-A this season,
but the Indians' 2014 first-round pick can take some positives
away from his first full year as a pro. His defense in center field
improved to the point where he may be at least average there
over the middle term, and his solid-average power continued to
show up in games, even against more advanced arms. While he
doesn't have the vaulted ceiling of some of the other prospects
in this area of the list, Zimmer is a polished player on both
offense and defense, and all of his tools grade out at average
or better. If he continues to improve in center field, his broad
base of skills would make him a first-division starter there, and
if forced to a corner, his plus arm and sufficient pop would still
qualify him to play every day.
24. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Hoffman made his professional debut last year after recovering
from the Tommy John surgery that knocked him down draft
boards in 2014. The reports on his stuff continue to wow, even
if the results weren't as dominant as you might expect from
the kind words. He can touch 99 with his fastball and shows a
potentially plus change and curve as well. Dealt from the Blue
Jays to the Rockies at the deadline as part of the Troy Tulowitzki
deal, Hoffman sits near the top of a suddenly thriving Colorado
system. He will be two years removed from surgery in 2016,
and no one would be shocked if he moves into the top tier of
prospect arms on our 2017 list.
25. Nick Williams, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Williams was Texas’ second-round pick in 2012, and was considered
one of the best athletes in the draft. Even on a field of
professionals he clearly displays the most athleticism on the
diamond, and that shows up in nearly every aspect of his game.
In years past he hasn't managed to turn those raw tools into
polished skills, but Williams made real strides in that regard
last season, and it culminated in him being a centerpiece of
the prospect package the Phillies received from the Rangers in
return for Cole Hamels. He has freakish bat-to-ball skills that
allow him to reach base despite rarely walking. He has also
hit double-digit home runs in every full season he’s played.
Williams has the raw speed to handle center field, and is slowly
starting to figure out how to take good routes. Naysayers will
continue to question his strike-zone control and lackluster
approach until he proves it in the majors.
26. Franklin Barreto, SS, Oakland Athletics
For the next couple of years Barreto, who spent last season
at High-A, will be known as “that guy the A's got back for MVP
Josh Donaldson.” He’s less-catchily known as a prospect with
an advanced feel for hitting and more power than you'd expect
from a player listed at 5-foot-9 (which means there's no way
he's actually 5-foot-9). Defensively, he is more of a mixed bag.
Barreto has the arm for shortstop, but there are questions
about whether he will develop the instincts and actions for the
position. The bat looks like it will play elsewhere on the infield,
even if the approach will confuse the people who think Moneyball
was only about taking walks.
27. Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves
Let’s play two truths and a lie:
Dansby Swanson was the no. 1 overall pick by the Diamondbacks,
a college shortstop who should move quickly through
the minors and be a solid regular in the majors, although he
lacks the loud tools and overall ceiling of many of the players
taken behind him.
Dansby Swanson was the first player dealt under the new
Trea Turner Rule when he was included in Arizona’s package
sent to the Braves for Shelby Miller.
“Dansby Swanson” is the name of a popular recurring
character, a bit of an upper-class twit, played by a young Hugh
Laurie in some of his early sketch-comedy work.
28. Jose De Leon, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
De Leon was a breakout star in the Dodgers' system in 2015. He
features an explosive fastball that shows good late life, and his
changeup has improved to the point where he is comfortable
throwing it to both right-handed and left-handed batters. De Leon's
delivery produces extension and deception, which makes
the whole package play up. But don't take our word for it, just
ask Cal and Texas League hitters, who struck out 35 percent of
the time against De Leon last season.
29. Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals
All prospect rankings involve a certain amount of dreaming, but
if you are going to dream, find a player on whom you can dream
big. Robles offers some of the most vivid, 35mm Eastmancolor
dreams in the minors right now. The 18-year-old raked in the
New York–Penn League last summer, forcing scouts to re-evaluate
their expectations. The performance alone would be
noteworthy in a league filled with experienced college arms, but
Robles pencils in three future 70-grade tools (hit, run, arm) on
the scouting sheet as well. He is a long way from the majors, but
he has an impact profile both in center field and at the plate.
30. Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
A lot of what we wrote for Tyler Glasnow also applies to Stephenson.
The Reds' top prospect has two potential 70-grade
offerings in his fastball and curve, but like his NL Central
counterpart, struggles to command them. With Glasnow, the
difficulty is getting his long levers to repeat his mechanics; with
Stephenson, it’s due to what we called a “grip and rip mentality”
on the mound in his pre-2015 scouting report. Last year, he
got all the way to Triple-A and struck out more than a batter per
inning between the Southern and International Leagues, but
the command and control issues lingered. Stephenson struggled
with walks and was a bit more hittable at times than you
would think given the arsenal. There is a no. 2 starter in here
with further refinement, with a mid-rotation or late-inning relief
profile otherwise.
31. David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies
Dahl missed a month in 2015 after having his spleen removed,
the result of a bad outfield collision in New Britain. He was
one of the youngest players in the Eastern League and more
than held his own on the field. Dahl is a true center fielder with
advanced instincts to match his plus speed and strong arm. At
the plate he struggled with more advanced sequencing from
Double-A arms and was vulnerable to fastballs out of the zone
with two strikes. When he does make contact, he does so with
exclamation marks, and he may grow into more power as he
matures. He needs to make adjustments to his approach to fully
tap into his offensive potential, but the defense and athleticism
should make him a good regular in center even if the bat never
fully develops.
32. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Atlanta Braves
This isn’t a Top 101 of prospects who were traded to the Braves
this offseason, but it’s understandable that you might think so.
Newcomb, the grand prize sent to in Atlanta in the Andrelton
Simmons deal, garners comparisons to Jon Lester due to his
size, handedness and low-effort delivery. Lefties with potential
plus-plus velocity are a rare commodity, but Newcomb has
struggled with his control and command so far as a professional.
Still, he's not just an arm-strength guy; he shows a full fourpitch
mix and more feel than you’d expect from a cold-weather,
small-college arm. If he gets a better handle on his mechanics
and the strike zone, there is front-of-the-rotation upside here.
33. Jon Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies
The career of a Colorado Rockies pitching prospect is only
slightly less tenuous than that of a Spinal Tap drummer. While
Gray can do his level best to stay away from gardening shears,
he couldn't avoid breathing in the thin air of Albuquerque and
Denver in 2015. Gray's fastball sits around 95, and his plus slider
will be a bat-misser at the highest level, but command and
altitude issues led to more loud contact than you would expect
from an arm with his arsenal. He's already logged innings in
the majors and has the frame to pitch 200 of them per season,
but he will need to refine his changeup and improve his fastball
command (and avoid spontaneously combusting, natch) to
reach his no. 3 starter upside.
34. Jake Thompson, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Thompson is the second of three prospects on this list that
came over from Texas in the Cole Hamels deal. He doesn’t have
the upside of Nick Williams or Jorge Alfaro, but Thompson’s a
future major-league starter who will show you a plus fastball
and slider to go with an average curveball and changeup. He is a
strike-thrower as well, but his command lags behind his control,
and that makes the whole arsenal a little more hittable than it
should be based on the raw scouting grades. Still, the stuff is
good enough that Thompson should settle into the middle of
the Phillies' rotation as soon as the end of 2016, and he has the
frame for eating up innings once he arrives there.
35. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
It’s unusual even this far down the list to find a plus hit–plus
power bat like Devers. Granted, he’s still very young and a ways
away from contributing to the big club in Boston, but you don’t
have to squint too hard to see an impact major-league hitter
given the above-average bat speed and backspin Devers produces
at the plate. If he were a lock to stay on the left side of
the infield, that’s a borderline All-Star profile, but he’s already
stout at just 18 years old and struggles with his footwork. When
he moves across the diamond to first base, the bat will be just
“good” there.
36. Ryan McMahon, 3B, Colorado Rockies
You can nitpick McMahon’s performance the last two seasons if
you like. In 2014 he played his home games in Asheville, which
has one of the most inviting right-field porches in minor-league
baseball. And in 2015 he played all of his games in the Cal
League, which is the Cal League. There is 20–home run power
in his bat in any park or league, though, and McMahon is a polished
third baseman with a plus arm, so he will contribute on
the defensive side as well. Perhaps someday he’ll do enough to
please you.
37. Ozhaino Albies, SS, Atlanta Braves
One of the few 2016 Braves prospects who was also a 2015
Braves prospect, Albies made a smooth transition to full-season
ball as an 18-year-old, hitting .300 in the South Atlantic
League. The diminutive switch-hitter is never going to be much
of a power threat (you’d be forgiven for suspecting his one
career home run was an inside-the-park job), but he offers
major-league tools everywhere else. In a perfect world Albies
is a good glove up the middle while swiping 30-plus bases and
serving as a table-setter for the rest of the lineup. In several
other worlds, he’s a reboot of Casey Candaele.
38. Braden Shipley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
For variety’s sake, here are some potential no. 3 starter Mad
Libs:
Shipley features a plus fastball that sits in the mid-90s and
complements it with (pitcher’s name)(scouty verb)
a plus changeup that could be a swing-and-miss offering in the
bigs. His(best off-speed pitch) (synonym for MLB)
curveball lags behind his other two offerings, but could get to
average with further(third pitch) development. The command
profile here is only fringe -average, due to issues
(noun that ends in “ment”)(probably “fringe”)repeating his
delivery. Shipley is a potential manatee on the mound,
capable of taking (pitcher’s name)(strong animal)the ball every
fifth day and logging innings in the middle of a major-league
rotation.
39. Alex Bregman, SS, Houston Astros
When the Astros selected Bregman with the second pick in the
2015 draft, they got a proven, polished performer from the best
baseball conference in NCAA. You will find plenty of shortstops
with louder tools on this list, but Bregman’s floor is likely higher
than all of them. He shows a plus hit tool and a solid glove
for the position, and may start his first full professional season
in Double-A. He also gets high marks for makeup and is a topstep
player through and through. While he may not be a future
All-Star, Bregman could be contributing to a major-league
team as soon as this September.
40. Grant Holmes, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Holmes is one of the more underrated pitching prospects in
baseball. He is outshone in his own system by the top-end arm
strength of Jose De Leon and the combination of youth, stuff
and pitchability of Julio Urias. He even got overlooked among
the 2014 prep-arm draft class due to the lack of projection in
his 6-foot-1 frame. The Dodgers may have gotten a steal with
the 22nd-overall pick as a result. Holmes features a plus fastball
and curve, but needs to refine his command and changeup to
reach his projection as a mid-rotation starter. You may have
heard some of this before.
41. Gleyber Torres, SS, Chicago Cubs
After graduating Addison Russell, Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber
in 2015, it would be forgivable if the Cubs system were
down a bit this year. Their player-development system doesn't
rebuild, though; it reloads. Torres may remind you of Starlin
Castro, although not so much Castro the wizened veteran but
Castro the prospect. He shows the same precocious hitting
ability (Torres hit .293 as the youngest player in the Midwest
League), and there are also questions about whether he sticks
at shortstop long term. Torres cost the current Cubs front office
a few pretty pennies more than the $45,000 that Jim Hendry
and company paid for Castro, but if he can produce the same
results at the plate, it’s unlikely there will be much quibbling
over the $1.7 million “splurge.”
42. Raimel Tapia, SS, Colorado Rockies
Tapia is a divisive prospect, even within Baseball Prospectus.
He has bat-to-ball skills border on the preternatural. His ability
to get the barrel on almost any pitch leads to some bad contact
and chasing, though. He is still raw in center field, but his plus
foot speed should let him play at least average there with
further development of his reads and routes. The bat would be
pushed in a corner, as the power projection is muddied a bit
by his stints in Asheville and the Cal League. In short, Tapia has
more development room than you would think for a player set
to start the 2016 season in Double-A, but the bat is so tantalizing
that it keeps him in the top half of this list.
43. Aaron Blair, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Hey, another Braves prospect who wasn’t a Braves prospect
at the beginning of last season! Blair lacks the upside of Sean
Newcomb or Touki Toussaint, but he is a major-league-ready
arm with mid-rotation upside. He has a prototypical starter’s
frame (6-foot-5, 230 pounds) and he’s made 52 starts over
the last two seasons. He may lack a high-end swing-and-miss
offering against major-league hitters (though both the curve
and change have a chance to be above average), but he has four
major-league pitches and a body built to sweat out 200 innings.
44. Anthony Alford, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Alford cost the Jays almost twice the third-round slot on a
two-sport deal out of the 2012 draft (he was a highly regarded
quarterback prospect at Southern Miss), and it started to pay
off in 2015. He always had five-tool potential, and it showed up
at the plate in a big way in his first extended taste of full-season
ball. Alford displayed above-average bat speed and an improving
approach, and his athleticism already plays well in center.
Although he lost some development time due to his dalliance
with college football, he will find himself in 2016 a level-appropriate
22-year-old in the Eastern League.
45. Sean Manaea, LHP, Oakland Athletics
Manaea certainly looks the part of a top pitching prospect. He's
got the prototypical workhorse-starter build. The fastball can
touch 97 from the left side and sits comfortably plus with good
movement. He complements that with a slider and change,
both of which could be at least average. However, there are
a whole bunch of “cans” and “coulds” with this profile. The
Manaea described above doesn't show up in every start, and recently
he hasn't been showing up much at all. An abdominal injury
followed by a groin injury limited him to under 100 innings
in 2015, even after he popped up healthy in the crisp baseball of
autumn. If you shook a Magic 8 Ball and asked it about Manaea,
you'd get an “Outlook Cloudy” or “Ask Again Later.”
46. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox
A bit of a surprise pick by the Red Sox at no. 7 in the 2015 draft,
Benintendi hit the ground running, putting pitchers in both the
New York–Penn and the South Atlantic League to the sword.
There is no one carrying tool here, and the ceiling isn't as high as
it usually is for a seventh-overall pick, but nothing grades out as
worse than average, and he gets more power out of his 5-foot-
10 frame than you’d expect. His advanced approach makes the
whole offensive profile play up, and he should stick in center
field. The lack of a long professional track record or standout tool
injects some risk into the profile, but there isn’t much more Benintendi
could have done in 2015 to quell any remaining doubts.
47. Cody Reed, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
Reed moved from the land of burnt ends to the land of “chili”
last summer as part of the Johnny Cueto deal. The tall, lanky
lefty was in the midst of a breakout season in the Royals' system
at the time, and he continued his success in Pensacola for the
Reds. He has an electric fastball from the left side, which sits
92-95 as a starter and has touched 99 in short bursts. Reed pairs
that with a sharp-breaking, upper-80s slider. He still has occasional
issues with control and command, which plagued him
more prominently in 2013 and 2014, due to a bit of a crossfire
delivery and timing issues with his lightning-fast arm action. He
may be best suited as a reliever long term, but his fastball-slider
combo could make him an elite late-inning arm.
48. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Last year was a bit of a lost season for the Diamondbacks' top
prospect. His major-league debut was marred by a line drive
off his face and general control struggles led to his demotion
back to Triple-A. Shoulder issues followed, and cost him most
of the summer. He showed flashes of what made him a top-10
national prospect at the end of the year in Reno, but this was
the second straight year in which Bradley spent more time off
the field than on it. At his best, he features a mid-90s fastball
and a hammer curve, but much to Riverdale’s dismay, he has
rarely been at his best lately.
49. Josh Bell, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ve been waiting for years for Bell’s raw plus power to start
showing up in games. It didn’t get all the way there in 2015,
but the hit tool took a huge step forward against upper-level
pitching. He hit .317 between the Eastern and International
Leagues and walked as often as he struck out. Although he has
yet to post double-digit home runs in a professional season,
Bell shows power from both sides of the plate, and even if it
only plays as average in the end, his 2015 makes you feel more
confident that his bat will play in right field (where he isn’t great
defensively, although his arm is good) or first base (where it
doesn’t really matter).
50. Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds
“Left-field profile” is a pejorative in scout circles, a little like
calling a movie “one of Adam Sandler’s better ones.” The implication
is that the player does not have the athleticism for center
or the arm for right. Left fielders have to hit. Fortunately, Winker
hasn’t had much of a problem with that so far. The raw power
won't wow you, but Winker should deliver plenty of doubles,
hit for a good average and show a strong approach that ties the
whole offensive package together.
51. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Nowadays we all but expect top pitching prospects to lose
a year to Tommy John surgery somewhere along the road,
but two years without a line on the baseball card will raise an
eyebrow. Taillon missed all of 2014 for the de rigueur elbow
surgery, and his path back last season was further marred by
a hernia that kept him off the mound. Before his injury issues,
Taillon had stuff that would easily put him among the top tier
of prospects on this list, and he ended 2013 on the cusp of the
majors. This ranking may look too low in six months, or it may
look too high. It could also look juuuuuuuuuust right.
52. Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Most of the press around Honeywell is concerned with his
screwball, taught to him by his uncle, Mike Marshall. It’s a pitch
worth the column inches, already a bat-missing offering in the
minors, but Honeywell is far from a one-trick pony, with a plus
fastball and two other major-league-quality secondaries in his
arsenal as well. That is a quality mid-rotation profile, if a unique
one nowadays. Honeywell also does not lack for moxie, something
else he may have picked up from Uncle Mike.
53. Clint Frazier, OF, Cleveland Indians
If you remember nothing else about Frazier, highly regarded
2013 prep bat, you probably remember that he had near-elite
bat speed and bright red hair. In 2016, he still swings a fast stick
and is still very ginger. The plus-plus bat speed and lift from his
swing plane translated into real over-the-fence power in the
Carolina League last season, and he cut his strikeout rate to a
more acceptable level. There is still too much swing and miss
in the zone from Frazier, and questions linger about his pitch
recognition and whether he will be able to play center field in
the majors, but oh man does that bug-zapper bat speed seduce.
54. Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Adames rose to national prominence as the main prospect sent
to Tampa in the David Price deal. That brings with it additional
attention and expectations, so it is easy to view his 2015 season
(.258/.342/.379 in High-A) as a disappointment. But Adames will
play the entire 2016 season as a 20-year-old, and the underlying
skill set that makes him a potentially above-average regular at
shortstop are still present. If his lack of foot speed forces him to
second or third (the arm should play at the latter), the bat will
have to take a step forward.
55. A.J. Reed, 1B, Houston Astros
Reed is the best first-base prospect in the minors. While that
isn’t quite the dictionary definition of “damning with faint
praise,” you can probably find it in a thesaurus. He will have
to do more than just hit; he’ll have to mash for the bat to play
even average for the position. Fortunately, the skill set fits the
bill. Reed socked 34 home runs across two levels in 2015, and
the scouting reports back up the statistical performance, raving
about his power to all fields and epic batting-practice displays.
The swing that generates this power is long enough that even
with his advanced approach, there will be strikeout issues that
cut into his average, but the potential 30–home run pop and
OBP skills should make up for that deficiency. Reed doesn’t
offer much outside of the bat, even considering the already low
bar at first base, so it’s not the worst thing in the world that he’ll
have the DH option available to him in the majors.
56. Javier Guerra, SS, San Diego Padres
Guerra entered 2015 as one of our “prospects on the rise” in a
very, very deep Red Sox system. He enters the 2016 season in
the Padres system (he was part of the package for Craig Kimbrel),
and as one of the best shortstop prospects in the game.
Guess he rose. What changed? The slick glove that brought
Guerra to our attention in the first place remains. Everything
he does in the field is loose and smooth, and he shows both
the range and arm the position demands. The bat was the real
revelation. In his full-season debut, the 19-year-old Panamanian
knocked 15 home runs in the South Atlantic League, and while
the power may not reach quite those heights at higher levels,
he’s always shown above-average bat speed and a frame that
could add strength as he ages. Guerra still needs refinement in
his approach, but given the defensive projection, if he turns into
even an average hitter in the majors, he’s a slam-dunk first-division
shortstop.
57. Willson Contreras, C/3B, Chicago Cubs
Contreras didn't get cut from BP's Cubs top-prospects list
coming into the 2015 season because he wasn't in legit consideration
in the first place. It’s a tribute both to how outstanding
their system is and how large a step forward Contreras took in
2015 that he lands just outside the top 50 a year later. Contreras
came somewhat late to catching, as the Cubs signed him as an
infielder out of Venezuela, and he spent his first three professional
seasons playing mostly first and third. But he’s taken
well to the tools, and is a good bet to be at least an average
defender behind the plate. That said, it was the development
of his bat over the last year that marks him as the best catching
prospect in baseball. Contreras hit .333 in Double-A and set a
career high with 34 doubles; his approach and plate discipline
took a step forward as well. It was a true breakout season, and
another voyage of self-discovery could rocket him into the top
echelon of prospects next year, assuming he doesn't hit his way
to Wrigley first.
58. Hunter Harvey, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
As you may have gathered, we are now in the middle of the
“oft-injured pitching prospect with potentially great stuff”
range. A healthy Harvey was a top-20 prospect entering 2015,
but was plagued by general discomfort in his forearm area
throughout the season. If that sounds like a precursor to Tommy
John surgery, well, it often is. That would at least clarify the
situation for him, although it would also cost him all of 2016
as well. If a healthy Harvey gets back on the mound, hopefully
his top-of-the-rotation stuff returns with him. He's a potential
no. 2 starter, but that whole “when healthy” thing is a chilling
qualifier for any pitching prospect.
59. Dillon Tate, RHP, Texas Rangers
The consensus best pitcher in the 2015 draft class, Tate failed to
slip past the Rangers at no. 4, who paid $4.2 million to procure
his services. He features a mid-90s fastball that can touch 98
and a potentially plus-plus slider that will generate whiffs
against both righties and lefties. The changeup has a ways to
go, but that’s how it is for most amateur arms; he didn't need
it much to get Big West hitters out. Tate also has a chance to
become the most famous alumnus of Claremont High School,
a title currently held by The Mountain Goats' frontman, John
Darnielle. It's not a great chance, though; We Shall All Be Healed
is a really good record.
60. Max Kepler, OF, Minnesota Twins
Kepler has always looked the part of a big, slugging corner outfielder,
but the production from the German has never matched
the body. That finally changed in 2015, as he set a career high in
extra-base hits with 56, and even got a brief cup of coffee with
the Twins in September. Kepler is still playing some center field,
but it’s more of a dalliance given his burgeoning physique and,
maybe more importantly, the existence of Byron Buxton, so it
would be helpful if some of those 2015 doubles turn into home
runs. At this point along his development path, power will be
the last piece of the puzzle, as he has an extremely advanced
approach, can hit for average and runs just well enough nip 15
bases a year.
61. Brett Phillips, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
The centerpiece of the Carlos Gomez trade, Phillips is a hardnosed
center fielder with a free safety's mentality and an
arbalest for a right arm. He improved his approach at the plate
and grew into his swing last year, and now combines an ability
to make in-swing adjustments with some natural loft and pullside
pop to project as an average contributor at the plate with
additional value added on the basepaths. Phillips didn’t show
much of that pop outside of the launching pad in Lancaster (15
home runs in 66 games in the Cal League, one home run in 54
elsewhere), but he doesn’t need to hit for much power to be a
productive regular in center field given the rest of the skill set.
62. Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins
Son of Flash, brother of Dee, Nick garners all the positive epithets
we often hear about a prospect with major-league bloodlines.
You will hear things like “high baseball IQ” and “good feel
for the game.” As far as the tools go, he doesn’t have his older
brother’s elite speed, but he’s athletic enough to stick on the
left side of the diamond and could even end up above average
there due to his strong fundamentals at shortstop and a plus
arm. He’s more advanced in the field than at the plate, but he
showed some feel for hitting and a bit of gap-to-gap power in
his 2015 Midwest League campaign.
63. Francis Martes, RHP, Houston Astros
Acquired at the 2014 trade deadline as part of the return for
Jarred Cosart, Martes blew through three levels as a 19-year-old
last year, finishing in the Texas League. Along the way he struck
out nearly a quarter of the batters he faced on the strength of a
fastball-curve combo that flashes plus-plus. He is only 6-foot-1
and struggles at times with mechanical inconsistency, so there
will always be bullpen whispers, but Martes has the frame to
handle a starter’s workload and already shows a solid change.
He needs further refinement on the mound, but this is a potential
front-of-the-rotation arm. The fallback position of relief ace
who sits in the upper 90s isn’t too shabby either.
64. Mark Appel, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
We have around 100 words or so to describe the player in question
in these blurbs, so some summarizing is always necessary.
Focus on a couple high points, stick in a developmental opportunity,
maybe a quick projection and on to the next one. Appel
confounds that modality. Getting any agreement on him from
scouts and evaluators, even on velocity readings, which vary from
day to day, is a difficult task. Forget about reaching any sort of
détente around his pitch grades or ultimate projection. The best
reports show Appel with three plus offerings (though not always
in the same start) and a possible no. 2 starter outcome. Others
teem with complaints about inconsistency in the stuff from start
to start, inning to inning, even pitch to pitch, and predict a consignment
to the bullpen. “The truth is probably somewhere in the
middle” is an awfully pat conclusion in most instances, but here
the middle is a vast expanse that covers most of the outcomes
likely for prospects good enough to make this list in the first
place. We could go on, but we are already stretching the patience
of our lovely editors and their “around 100 words” diktat.
65. Jorge Mateo, SS, New York Yankees
The Yankees have spent millions in the international market
over the last few seasons, blowing past their cap in both 2013
and 2014, but their best IFA prospect might be one they paid
just a quarter of a million dollars in 2012. Mateo is an 80 runner
fully capable of stolen-base titles. He offers a potentially solid
glove at shortstop as well. The bat is still quite raw, and may
never win him a Silver Slugger, but he can challenge the old
adage that “you can’t steal first.” Every ball in play is a potential
single, and every ball up the alleys a potential triple.
66. Jacob Nottingham, C, Oakland Athletics
Nottingham was dealt from Houston to Oakland in the Scott
Kazmir trade while in the midst of a breakout season with the
bat. Granted, he did a fair chunk of damage in the Cal League,
which is quite hitter-friendly, but the swing backs up a plus
power projection to go with the A-ball production. Behind the
plate he’s a mixed bag, with a strong arm but raw receiving
skills. Prep catchers can take longer to develop, and the happy
dreams of a 20-homer catcher are enough to give Nottingham
more time behind the dish.
67. Ian Happ, OF, Chicago Cubs
It is not mere happenstance that finds Happ on this year's 101.
He's another polished college bat who the Cubs happily added
to their system, selecting the Cincinnati outfielder with the
ninth-overall pick in the 2015 draft. If you happened upon him in
his professional debut last summer, you saw a switch-hitting outfielder
who never looks hapless from either side of the plate, and
shows enough present-day feel and approach to move quickly
through the minors. Happ is not quite athletic enough for center
field, and has run out to all three outfield positions so far in his
brief pro career. There is some thought that he might be able
to play second base, so there is no need for the Cubs to make a
decision about his ultimate defensive home haphazardly.
68. Luis Ortiz, RHP, Texas Rangers
A 2014 first-round pick, Ortiz performed very well in his first full
professional season. He posted very impressive strikeout and
walk rates, especially for a 19-year-old in a full-season league.
Ortiz has a workhorse frame, but needs to monitor his weight to
avoid being compared to less complimentary animals. His delivery
is unorthodox, but as his control numbers suggest, he fills
the zone quite well. A potential mid-rotation starter, Ortiz has a
heavy sinker-slider mix with a changeup that can get to average.
A 2017 debut at absolute earliest, Ortiz likely will be capped at
Double-A Frisco this year while logging more innings.
69. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Much of what was written for Hunter Harvey would fit under
Bundy’s name as well. He did pitch in 2015, but he only threw 22
innings, and dealt with shoulder issues for much of the season.
This comes on the heels of arm issues in 2014, and Tommy
John surgery that cost him all of 2013. You might forget that
he pitched a bit in the majors in 2012 after signing a big-league
deal out of the draft, but the Orioles are probably well aware,
as he enters 2016 out of options. If he’s not on the DL, he’ll have
to be on the major-league staff somewhere, but balancing the
building of his arm strength with keeping his rights will be a
sticky wicket for the Baltimore front office and field staff. Why
go through all this trouble for an oft-injured pitcher? Bundy
showed three potentially plus pitches at his height as a prospect.
The number of arms even on this list with that résumé is
very, very short.
70. Jorge Alfaro, C, Philadelphia Phillies
It feels like #TheLegend has been tantalizing us with his potential
for years now. Alfaro’s loud tools are fun to talk about,
but they needed to show up in actual baseball games more
consistently, and that still didn’t happen in 2015. Granted,
Alfaro missed a lot of time with an ankle injury, but a leg issue
for a catching prospect, one about whom there were already
whispers regarding his long-term future behind the plate, is very
concerning. Alfaro the player may never live up to Alfaro the
prospect, but this is a prospect list, and it is tough to ignore a
potential five-tool catcher.
71. Jorge Lopez, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Lopez was nowhere near our 2015 Top 101 list, and only clocked
in at seventh overall in a shallow Milwaukee system. The stuff
projected as average across the board at best, and his performance
in the Carolina League was uninspiring. He looked like a
prototypical projectable guy who hadn't yet projected, physically
or astrally. Flash forward 12 months and Lopez's fastball now
sits 92-94, touching the upper 90s, with a curve that dismays
opponents. He dominated Double-A and got two starts for the
Brewers as they played out the string. He'll likely be back in
their rotation at some point in 2016, and while his occasional
control issues may keep him from being a front-line arm, he
could end up a useful mid-rotation starter, something that
seemed very unlikely this time last year.
72. Brandon Drury, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Anytime a former 13th-rounder makes his big-league debut,
someone somewhere in an amateur-scouting department gets
an extra half-hour of free continental breakfast at the closest
Days Inn. Drury has a legitimate shot at helping the big club in a
significant way in 2016. He’ll show four average-or-slightly-better
tools, with the power potential standing out as an expected
strength despite curiously poor home run totals in the high
minors. A competent defender at second or third, he’s capable
of occupying prime real estate on the depth chart for the next
several years.
73. Anderson Espinoza, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Remember what you were doing at 17? If your answer doesn’t
involve hitting triple digits with your fastball on the back end of
a seven-figure bonus, then you and Espinoza might not have a
whole lot to talk about. The Venezuelan wunderkind forced his
way stateside in his first professional season, then proceeded to
whiff a batter an inning while allowing all of three earned runs
in his first 40 frames of Rookie ball. That’s a 0.68 ERA if you’re
scoring at home. Espinoza’s heater already shows projection as
an elite major-league weapon, and he backs it up with startlingly
advanced feel for a pair of potentially plus secondaries. Still,
his slight build and the natural attrition rate of young pitchers
are reasons enough to keep expectations in check, kind of like
your junior prom date did when you were the kid’s age.
74. Billy McKinney, OF, Chicago Cubs
If “left-field profile” is pejorative, “tweener” is an epitaph. But
we come to praise McKinney, not to bury him. He is, after all,
the 74th-best prospect in baseball. True, he doesn’t have the
foot speed for center field, nor the arm for right, and his yearly
total of dingers should just barely creep into double digits once
his game power fully develops. What he can do is engage that
most primal of baseball skills: See ball, strike ball. If we were to
rank these same 101 prospects just on their hit tools, McKinney
would be much higher, and not just because there are a lot of
pitchers. He could be a perennial .300 hitter in an era when that
is a very rare thing. That may be enough to carry a left-field
profile and avoid the tweener tag.
