Yeah but 100 million guaranteed is way too much risk for the team. It has to be mitigated.
6/40 guaranteed is double what any prospect had been guaranteed in the past.
Hypothetical then, if the Jays offered 6/40 do you think Vlad turns it down or not? No options... nothing, just 6 years 40 M straight up.
Yeah, but all but 1 of those top guys are playing for teams that don't care about money and have no issues rolling the dice on elite talent and keeping them for as cheaply as possible while they are young, paying big in arbitration then picking and choosing which to keep long term.
I don't see the Jays as that kind of team because of their ownership situation. I know they are one of the richest owners in the game and should have no problem paying any layer to keep them, but since the Jays are part of a publicly traded company, they won't ever be the biggest spenders and will always have a tighter fist on the payroll. Rightly or wrongly, that's how it is. They not the Rays... but they aren't the Dodgers or Yankees either. The upper end of the middle tier is where they will stay payroll wise.
That's why something like a 10 year/100 deal makes more sense, they're paying more than they really need to, and the player in the 6/40 contract is getting nearly 80% of an MVPs pay guaranteed. That's pretty sweet.
The other thing that both sides will be considering is the boatloads of cash the upcoming FA class will receive. It would greatly benefit the Jays to lock him up before those deals are done, as it would likely greatly benefit Vlad to wait. The cost per win is gonna go up, and players salaries across the board are going to benefit from it.
Not bad for a guy who has already reached the threshold for being an average Hall of Famer for his position... at 26.
And yet Bonds peak was still better... still blows my mind to watch Trout and marvel at how amazing he is, like clearly a tier above anyone else in the game right now and everyone else for the past 40 years except for that Bonds guy.
In theory yeah, but 1 injury and it's goodbye. I know it's not as likely as with a pitching prospect, but it would still be awfully hard to turn down 6/40 guaranteed.
That would still be precedent setting money. Longoria's guarantee was for 17.5... Kingery was 21.5.
A 19 year old doesn't have any leverage though. When a guy like Donaldson who earned his 60 million through arbitration when his results on the field backed it up (and more) how would a 19 year old be in any position to hold out for something similar or more?
I think if Shatkins offered Vlad Jr 10/100 in a framework i mentioned above he'd be in the lineup tomorrow. It would be the height of insanity for any 19 year old to turn something like that down.
Vlad would be, the Jays wouldn't be.
10/150 is way too high given the cost certainty of 4 years at MLB minimum and 3 arb years with only 3 FA years to worry about. There would be no reason go anywhere near that high.
Kingery was just signed for what could turn out to be a total of 9 years 66 million if all options are picked up. I get that Vlad is a much better prospect than Kingery, but he's not 1 year and 90 million better.
There's still significant risk with any guaranteed deals to a guy who has never swung at a major league pitch, no matter how amazing his minor league numbers are.
I would do 10/100 though, assuming the last 4 are team options in the 15-20 range. 6/40 for his first years is nothing to sneeze at.
Donaldson, who was a Super 2 guy, ended up earning about 56 million over his arb deal years. 6/40 for unproven talent is plenty, and still probably a bit high.
I'd like to see it though just because I'd rather see the young guys get paid while they are great rather than having to wait until they're 30+ and declining to try and lock down a long term massive deal
Last 10 games... hitting .553 with the same amount of HR as walks and strikeouts.... 4
21 hits.... 7 multihit games. ...
He's nearly hitting .500 for all of May ffs
I agree he's a legend because of the HR, but that shouldn't influence opinions of his overall play. Advanced stats like wRC+, wOBA etc (I'll exclude WAR because it really isn't a stat- it's a combination of stats which is designed to give a quick 1 shot look at a players contribution - which I agree isn't perfect, but is f***tons better than RBI totals) show exactly why Carter was overrated, and those stats are not subjective.
Players of the day: Gift Ngoepe
Honourable mentions: Maverik Buffo, Brock Lundquist, Brandon Grudzielanek, Alberto Mineo, Riley Adams, Bo Bichette, Vlad Jr, Dalton Pompey, Richard Urena, Rowdy Tellez, Danny Jansen