connorp
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Everything posted by connorp
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)
connorp replied to Krylian's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Facts, it’s like they’ve been flooded out now by the rise of the Orioles and Rangers. Scurrying all over -
You’re mostly just happy I came into your life 15+ years ago. You’re welcome
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Ok. Now we can agree on this and officially end the debate. Now it’s you and Jaysblue still standing
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This is the Strawman you guys built. Of course randomness exists in the regular season and post season. Nerds dedicate their time to tuning out the randomness and developing formulas to determine probabilities. I simply stated that the formulas for playoff baseball would have to restructured in order to be as accurate as regular season ones. The massive wRC+ difference of 19 points backs this up. From there it would have to get even nerdier. Even after you make tweaks to the formula, there will still be randomness. So to claim anyone said randomness doesn’t exist, is just a childish debate tactic.
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Im not interested in the randomness, which is ironic here.
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Dodgers were always a team they had strong SP for the playoffs. They got caught with their pants down this year. I expect it to be addressed. Not sure what guys are back from injury and when
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The importance of aces is something I think even Laila begrudgingly concedes
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My friend. Careful what you wish for You guys challenged me to rebuild, it’s done
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I don’t recall trying to put value on energetic young core. CNN work there
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Because honestly you guys don’t offer anything constructive. It’s just like Pat Borders won WS MVP and the Royals went to the WS 28 years ago. Theres real legit data to dive through to better understand the playoff environment. At least some people like the FG writer are open to understanding something different than what they think
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I’ll take what I can get.
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Maybe I should email the FG guy. Tell him to split the 192 hitters into different groups
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Well I’ll die on a hill that you’ll see BB% drop for players like Biggio, be the same/rise for the big hitters. I don’t think the 19 point drop would be uniform between Harper/Biggio types. That DOES NOT mean Biggio might not run into a HR. I understand that concept is baffling
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The point of proving certain theories is not to be able to guarantee a result, or eliminate randomness. The questions here, has always been, is ideal roster construction different come playoff time than it is the regular season. You guys are very simple minded and not like the guy that just published this article yesterday on FG. Cyborg and North were ones to develop and test their own theories as well. That’s why they graduated to bigger and better things. The fact that hitters see a 19 point drop wRC+ is proof that it’s a completely different environment. Admittedly what I’m spouting are just theories, but I clearly have a much firmer understating of the fact that regular season and playoff baseball are not the same.
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I mean, isn’t this like quoting Pitching wins lol. Shouldn’t you be using something like xWPCT
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He summarizes it by saying “its tough to sift through, but there’s truth to that maxim the playoffs are a different beast from the regular season” From his research you’d need to dive deeper into what part of run scoring was impacted the most, you could test my theories that the players that had say a wRC+ of 100 would see a sharper decline than the guys that were 120 wRC+ say
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Alex Eisner on Fangraphs I’m reading his findings yesterday. He was interesting enough to take an initial dive into the nerd stuff.
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Reading my own research now because there aren’t many people here that will think beyond thing that they’re spoon fed… Since the Wild Card era, wRC+ is down 19 points from regular season to playoffs. Pretty huge. Definitely a different game. Diving into it more now.
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Walk me through the jimc logic here If Oakland made it, that would be reason for scoring to go down/stay same. If they didn’t make it, by logic it would rise
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What facts we do know is that run scoring is suppressed about 16% in the playoffs going back the last couple decades, and that’s pretty consistent. In the world of wRC+, 16% is not insignificant. It’s a tougher hitting environment; fact. There’s all sorts of ways to prove theories like walk rates going down for hitters with low slugging %. Really I could be owned by facts but it’s more like “yur dumb”. God forbid you guys entertain even simple deviations to the formulas you are slaves to
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Ok. You unimaginative turtles win
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Again, no one is suggesting you can expect a HR, simply improve your odds
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It’s more likely a really good fielder will make an error than it is Player A doesn’t get to a ball Player B would
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But it’s more unlikely to occur. Defensive value is incremental and takes a lot of games to manifest itself. Not something you can count of showing in a 3 game series
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Anecdotal evidence. Weak debaters go-to Run some Uzr numbers on fielders right now and I’ll show you a whole bunch of crazy ass things. Bats are generally much more stable, standard randomness aside. HR power a skill that gets a push. This has been discussed here.
