Whooaaa Nelly. I'm going to turn back the clock and stir up some s*** with an anti-saber post:)
I think you saber monkeys get to computer nerdy just blindly following projections to form an opinion on a signing. I know you guys probably don't..but it comes off that way..luckily this board is mainly made up of tight knit group of posters for the most part from the old board. If we were on the old board with a mix of people.. There would be a lot of anti-saber sentiment still.
A projection is a point of reference. Its a superior POR to something Amaro and his scouts can spout off at the mouth but it's not above interpretation and needs to be supplemented with scouting.
The system takes s*****, below avg, avg, good, as elite players and stirs them all up and spits out an average more or less. If I'm wrong in that theory please correct me. It's not responsible to comp an elite player with a s***** player.
There are plenty of things to consider outside of what fangraphs has. I've mentioned before, like with a SP there are more things than age/velo. What's his secondary stuff like. How will he comp for a velo drop. A good example is a guy like Anibal. I'm sure the projection system had him steady or declining this year. But when you watched the guy pitch 2 years ago for the Tigers down the stretch..you could see it was a guy with real upside there. I was drooling to sign him. Of course, lifes not that easy and the guy may never reach his ceiling..but that has to be factored in when making a decision to aquire a FA
I'm biased in bringing up Jacoby as he's one of my favorite players..but when you watch him play..you can see he hasn't lost a step. There's power there that didn't translate at times but he's a guy with upside still so I'm not going to assume hes going to decline half a win each year. He has become a great baserunner beyond just speed..
I do believe in WAR as a stat and think you should use it as a POR when analyzing a FA deal..but just think more thought should go into it besides what Steamer says. If you're thinking "no s*** Sherlock"..I'm just saying it comes off that way..that saber guys are close minded to anything outside fangraphs.
Also I know I made an error saying "POF" but I'm on my phone and don't know how to go back.