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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Rowdy Tellez is a weird hill to die on. I hope he turns into a useful player too but the objective evaluation would be that he is probably a replacement level baseball player.
  2. Better, obviously, but power for strikeouts is a logical tradeoff so it's not like you can just accept the low K rate is a positive development and expect the power to return in a nutshell.
  3. Yes, but they need to obviously be an above average bunter. I expanded on the math above.
  4. Tellez' average exit velocity is in the 18th percentile this year. His xwOBA is .298 (31st percentile). Not good signs.
  5. This is true, but you also need to factor in the chance that the bunt does not succeed. I assume that chance would drag the 66% down to the 61% range, if not worse. There is a non-zero chance that Jansen pops it up, right. So it's not just 61% vs 66%. There is say a ~5% chance (pop up, etc.) that the 61% chance to score a run becomes a 40% chance (runner on 2nd, one out). I'm sure the complete math has been done somewhere online. If Jansen has only a 5% chance to fail their "one run expectancy" is 64.685% 10% chance to fail it is 63.37% 20% chance to fail it is 60.74% I think. And, per this: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-truth-about-bunting/ MLB hitters only succeed at getting a committed bunt down fair 50% of the time. That means given two chances a typical player would get it down in play 75% of the time and fail 25% of the time. That's not good enough to bunt by the numbers!!! Also, fair does not necessarily mean it's even good enough. Fair could mean a missile straight at the pitcher that doesn't allow the runner to advance. Also, Danny Jansen is not even a practiced bunter. I think we have the answer. Don't bunt in that situation unless the hitter is a good bunter.
  6. Quintessential Vlad Jr tonight. Three groundouts, two of them sharply hit, one of them f***ing 113 mph. If he hits that on a line it leaves the park. Throw in a lazy flyball on a meatball pitch and you’ve got yourself some rice and beans, baby. Prescription: send him to Buffalo for some mental rehab.
  7. This is a good question. If they are using Panik, might as well let someone who matters DH and rest their legs. But nope!
  8. Rowdy Tellez has a .311 projected wOBA. I hope people appreciate how bad it is for a player with his lack of defensive value to project as a below average hitter. It's not Charlie Montoyo's fault that his big DH hits like a catcher.
  9. Rowdy is being punished for that horrible steal attempt in Boston. I'm fine with this.
  10. I hear that Joe Panik's trackman readouts are nuts.
  11. Disagree. We need to stay on top of this Vlad thing which is a very dynamic situation.
  12. He's smug in a very different but arguably more annoying (over time) way. At least Stroman is a legitimate quality SP.
  13. Laika

    NBA Thread

    Yeah, it was surprising. Kind of a statement game after getting blown out by Boston. Lowry+FVV+Ibaka is probably equivalent to Giannis by impact. In theory Middleton is better than Siakam, right? Chris Boucher is a secret weapon though. He can win you the game or be the worst player on the floor. He cannot be turned into a statistic. Unpredictable force.
  14. I believe he is just in Rochester with the rest of the 60 man
  15. Laika

    NBA Thread

    Meaningless game last night with so many regulars not playing but we all HAVE to acknowledge that Slim Duck is a treasure and may have had the Raptors dunk of the year.
  16. It’s true that Asians live longer but not enough for me to care gross
  17. I found the swing I want Toronto to draft: That is absurd.
  18. Wow, good salesmanship! I will have a look. Edit: probably most interested in your horseshit or maybe Mitch Keller if available.
  19. Laika

    NHL Thread

    How the f*** would I know what they will do? They could keep it in tact and trust the process or they could make huge moves.
  20. My offense is performing okay and I need to acquire some pitching with an eye to 2021. Looking for a solid young arm or two, ideally active now. I have a number of offensive prospects and players that I can move. Open to big deals. Not looking to trade for older veterans.
  21. Evidently not.
  22. Who thinks Marcus Stroman manipulated his own service time? By that I mean, faked his injury so he could spend just enough time on the IL to roll over the 24 days of service time he needed to be a free agent.
  23. It's like when that new guy joins your dynasty league and he doesn't have quiiiiite enough fantasy baseball experience to have a proper feel for the value of different assets. Atkins took him to school. Hilarious in hindsight that the industry panned the Stroman return. Stroman had 0.9 fWAR as a Met. Kay already has 0.5 in like 22 innings.
  24. Looks like they did everything they could. Hopefully Randal Grichuk doesn't opt out! /s
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