14 wins * 7.5 is $105m and that's not adjusting for inflation or where they are on the win curve. I think the deal will be just fine.
If you do your 3.2, 2.5, 2, 2, 1.5, 1.5, 1 projections, and increase the cost of a win by 5% each year, that's ~$115m in value, which would be like ~-$14.3m in surplus value not adjusting for position on the win curve.