http://i.imgur.com/TbDl72U.jpg
Quick thing I made. It just shows pythos and then the expected pythos from the fangraphs metrics, and then extrapolated irresponsibly to a full season. Pytho thinks the Jays are a 90 win team, but fangraphs' expected runs and runs allowed think we're an 86ish win team, which seems more reasonable. All in all, solid place to be, 12th best team in the league but 4th best in the AL, and far and away the best in the AL East. Next closest team is the Yankees at 13, 7 wins behind or so. Rays/Red Sox aren't even in the top half of the league. Orioles are bad.
Luckiest teams are the Mariners, Giants, Phillies, Red Sox. Jays are 9th luckiest. Angels, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, D-Backs are most unlucky.
And this isn't counting today's outburst, as TL said.