Brandon Glick

Greatness is a curse. The New York Yankees and their fans have lived that self-fulfilling prophecy for the better part of the last 16 years, especially last October, when they saw their best chance at a World Series title since 2009 vanish thanks to the heroics of one Freddie Freeman. Do you know what isn't a curse? Having a franchise superstar who doesn't just live up to a moment, but instead inserts himself into it and becomes the moment. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the unquestionable hero of the series for Toronto. After notching just three hits in first 22 playoff at-bats, the $500 million man hit an unfathomable .529/.550/1.059 with three home runs and nine RBIs, good for a peachy 324 wRC+. Yes, he was 224% than the average hitter as he tried his damndest on every swing to send the Yankees to Cancun early. Of course, he wasn't alone in the effort. Ernie Clement hit .643. Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk both had multi-homer games. The bullpen covered a ton of innings, especially in Game 4. The Trey Yesavage Game. It all came together in what looked easy, but was surely a Herculean effort, to remove the reigning AL pennant winners from championship contention. It's hard to think back to the beginning of the season after 166 games with this team, but there were legitimate (and valid!) conversations concerning the failure of this era of Blue Jays baseball. Even when Guerrero signed his $500 million extension -- which was far from a guarantee before it happened -- there were questions about whether the Jays were admitting themselves to the mediocrity asylum. At the time, I wrote a piece called "The Toronto Blue Jays and the art of backing yourself into a $500 million corner." I laid out all the reasons as to why the team had to meet Guerrero's demands, but I never considered that the deal could just, you know, work out. At least not so quickly. Remember, this was a team that hadn't won a playoff game, let alone a postseason series, since 2016. They had been swept out of the Wild Card Round in 2020, 2022, and 2023. They finished in last place in the division in 2024. After years of failing to lure in top free agent targets (Anthony Santander at $90 million was the biggest free-agent signing by the team since Kevin Gausman and George Springer in 2021), it seemed as though the Blue Jays just simply didn't have the superstar firepower to keep pace with the Yankees in the AL East. So much for all of that. By virtue of winning the season series 8-5, the Blue Jays won the AL East with a record of 94-68 this season, and then hammered the Bronx Bombers in a gentleman's sweep in the ALDS. They are now in the ALCS for the time since 2015, with a chance to make their first World Series appearance since 1993. Their next opponent will be the Seattle Mariners or Detroit Tigers, but regardless of who wins the other ALDS's winner-take-all Game 5, the truth is the Blue Jays will be favored in the best-of-seven Championship Series, and for good reason. This is sort of the beauty of baseball—the narrative can shift dramatically in just one year. It's hard to go from being the "most disappointing team in baseball" to the titans of the Junior Circuit in the span of 12 months, but Toronto has done it. With home field advantage awaiting them in the next round, too, the American League's most prolific home team during the regular season will have a good chance to keep the good vibes going. There are a lot of questions about 2026, not the least of which is Bo Bichette's impending free agency. There are going to be a lot of pundits that call this team a one-hit wonder over the winter, regardless of the final outcome. There are going to be doubts that an aging team can keep pace with some youth movements taking place around the league. But, for right now, the Blue Jays have already answered the most important question. To be the best, you have to beat the best. And, after nearly a decade away from the spotlight, these Blue Jays have proven more than capable of handling any opponent that has the misfortune of playing them. View full article

Heading on the road for the first time this postseason, the Blue Jays face a tall task in trying to sweep the Yankees in the ALDS. View full video

The Blue Jays made the highest-risk move of the 2025 MLB trade deadline by trading for Shane Bieber. How much did the team improve? View full video

Per multiple reports, the Blue Jays have traded top prospect Khal Stephen to the Cleveland Guardians to acquire starting pitcher Shane Bieber. The story on Bieber is well known at this point. The 2020 AL Cy Young winner was a force to be reckoned with from 2019-23, posting a 3.07 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 16.0 bWAR, and 28.4% strikeout rate in 716 1/3 innings. He was the heir apparent to Corey Kluber atop Cleveland's rotation, and then, disaster struck. After a dominant 12-inning cameo in 2024 (he struck out 20 of the 45 hitters he faced), he underwent Tommy John surgery, forcing him to miss the remainder of last year's campaign. He came into this season with the hopes of returning by the All-Star break, but a setback in early June all but cost him that chance. Simply put, this is a huge, high-risk, high-reward swing by the Blue Jays at the trade deadline. When (if?) healthy, Bieber is as good as any pitcher in the league, and he could easily be starting Game 1 of the ALDS in a few months' time if all goes according to plan. However, this is a guy who hasn't pitched in the majors since April 2024, a hiatus that will stretch to 16 months come August. The good news is that, because Bieber is on the 60-day IL, he won't require a 40-man roster spot immediately. Thus, the Jays can get creative with their roster maneuvering until Bieber is ready to return. The 30-year-old is owed the remainder of his $10 million salary this season, along with a $16 million player option for 2026 ($4 million buyout). At this point in time, it's expected that Bieber will pick up that option, though things could change in a hurry if he resembles even a fraction of his former self during the stretch run with the Blue Jays. For those wondering, Bieber's current rehab assignment is going well. He's made three appearances totaling nine innings (he's increased his inning total by one every start as he builds back up to starter's workload), allowing two earned runs while striking out 16 and walking just one. If he pitches anything like that in Toronto, bully for the Blue Jays (but, also, he'll opt out). Part of the huge risk in this deal is the price it took to acquire the Guardians' former ace. Khal Stephen, a 22-year-old who just reached Double-A, was dominating the minors this year across three levels to the tune of a 2.06 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 91 2/3 innings. He was recently ranked as a Top 100 prospect by multiple publications. There's no way around it: this is a gargantuan price to pay for a guy who hasn't pitched in a year and a half. Stephen is at the peak of his value right now, which you could argue makes him a perfect candidate to trade (especially with all the other top pitching prospects in Toronto's system), but this has a chance to age very poorly for the Blue Jays, and not just because the Guardians are a pitching factory that can turn you or I into a MLB-caliber hurler. Nevertheless, the Blue Jays are in position to go all-in, and this certainly qualifies. If Bieber's rehab assignment is to be believed, the Jays could mirror their 2015 success when they brought in former Cy Young winner David Price at the trade deadline. View full article

With two years and roughly $50 million remaining on the blockbuster $150 million contract he signed back in 2021, George Springer looked finished. His contract projected to be nothing more than deadweight for a franchise that hadn't gotten over the playoff hump with its "next-gen" core, and two straight years of subpar offensive production all but portended a grim future for himself and the Blue Jays. Luckily, it seems no one got the memo. We've covered the good and bad of Springer's revival season here on Jays Centre, and while his defense (-6 OAA, -7 DRS) remains pitiful — it's gotten so bad that he now splits his time evenly between the outfield and designated hitter — the 35-year-old should be celebrated for his impressive renaissance. The basics: In 92 games (365 plate appearances), Springer is slashing .276/.368/.490, good for a 139 wRC+, his best mark since his maiden season in Toronto (140 wRC+ in 2021). His 1.9 fWAR already surpasses what he provided in 2023 and 2024, and he's on pace for his second 20-20 season in three years. He's also elevated his walk rate all the way to 12.3% while keeping his strikeout rate (19.2%) consistent with his career norms. Now, for the advanced stuff: Springer has improved nearly every batted-ball metric from last year, and he sits in the 90th percentile or higher in xwOBA (.395), xSLG (.553), barrel rate (14.9%), ideal launch angle hits (40.9%), and chase rate (20.0%). In other words, the veteran slugger is displaying more patience at the plate, swinging at less "bad" pitches (i.e., pitches he can't hit or can't do damage on), and, when he does hit the ball, he's hitting it with more authority. That is, as the kids say, pretty good. When analyzing a turnaround of this magnitude, it's always important to check for a change in approach. There's a myriad of ways to do that, but one of my preferred methods is checking for a player's production against specific pitch types; if a player suddenly starts crushing fastballs after years of struggling against them, odds are he's changed something in his swing or his approach at the plate. And, lo and behold, Springer has indeed improved his production against both fastballs and breaking pitches. Long a pulverizer of the hard stuff, Springer has returned to his usual dominance against heaters in 2025 after a meaningful hiatus. This season, he's produced a .331 batting average and .564 slugging percentage (and .638 expected slug!!!) against the roughly 800 fastballs he's seen. His wOBA (.427) and xwOBA (.449) are at their highest levels versus fastballs since 2021. Plus, this new approach — sitting on fastballs and adjusting to the slower offerings — has also yielded better results against breaking balls. A .235 average, .431 slugging percentage, and .311 wOBA are all huge improvements over his production last season, and they all fall short of his respective expected stats this season (.254 xBA, .492 xSLG, .339 xwOBA). Naturally, he's sacrificed some production against off-speed pitches, as his .263 wOBA versus them this year is nearly 30 points lower than in 2024. However, it shouldn't be a coincidence that it's his lowest mark since 2021, especially since he hasn't hit fastballs and breaking balls this good since that same year. It's not often a 35-year-old can channel himself from four years prior, but that's exactly what Springer is doing. Considering that he only sees off-speed pitches 14.0% of the time (compared to 86% for the other two offerings combined), the trade-off he's made is obviously well worth it. Suffice to say: Springer is both healthy and productive once again. It's no surprise that as he returns to his form of old, the Blue Jays are on pace for their best season since Springer first arrived in Canada. View full article

Pretty amazing that the Jays have opened up a 3.0 game lead in the AL East with this winning streak...

Here we go. First place in the AL East is on the line.

Over at our cousin site, Fish on First, managing editor Ely Sussman put together a list of players the Marlins might deal at the deadline. Is there anyone you want the Blue Jays to pursue? Which players Marlins are most likely to sell at trade deadline - Marlins - Fish On First FISHONFIRST.COM Unlike last summer, the Marlins won't be tearing apart their entire roster to load up on prospects, but there are still opportunities for them to cash in on redundant players and sell...

Kevin Gausman masterpiece incoming...

A debate on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s true value to the Blue Jays from Take Me Out To the Podcast. NOTE: This video was recorded shortly before Guerrero agreed to a $500 million extension. View full video

A discussion about the marquee free agent addition who will help protect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the heart of Toronto's order, from Take Me Out To The Podcast. View full video

I wrote this in a waiting room after sitting on my phone for 4 hours. Happy to answer any questions people have about Tustin or the Ross.

This is a work of satire. Please enjoy. There are a lot of nervous fans in Toronto this offseason, and the Blue Jays continue to try and navigate the offseason before "the big one". Much has been made about the team's failures to secure star players in free agency, as well as their inability to lock down their in-house stars on long-term deals, but the front office got a small win on Thursday night, when it was announced that they had managed to avoid arbitration with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The arbitration process is an unforgiving one, as teams and players must ruthlessly attack each other in an effort to to convince a (totally unbiased) third-party that the salary figure they submitted is a fair value for the player's contributions in the upcoming season. Avoiding this private trial may not help the team's chances to extend Guerrero Jr., but it certainly won't hurt them. `Speaking to a gaggle of independent content creators, Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins expressed his joy in the team's ability to strike a deal with its best player: When asked by Tustin Jruedeau — a self-proclaimed "new face" to the scene — whether or not he felt the Blue Jays were nearing a contract extension with Guerrero Jr., Atkins hesitated before pointing and exclaiming "What's that over there?". By the time we all looked back, he was gone. Luckily, Tustin was able to catch up with Vladdy before we were escorted off the premises. He asked the star first baseman about the one-year, $28.5 million contract he signed, to which Guerrero Jr. replied "I just felt bad, man. You guys know how many free agents have chosen not to come here. I imagine it's gotta weigh on Ross. I was already under team control for this year, so I figured I'd throw him and the rest of the front office a bone by signing the deal they offered. Maybe it'll help them get their mojo back." Tustin said he asked if Guerrero Jr. if he expected to sign a long-term deal with Toronto, but before Tustin could get a response, Guerrero Jr. pointed out something in the corner of the room and disappeared by the time the reporter looked back. View full article

It's no secret that the Blue Jays haven't been able to lure superstars to their organization over the last few offseasons. What's particularly striking is that a depleted farm system is what's keeping the team from landing the big fish. In a report from Jeff Passan on Monday (locked behind the ESPN+ paywall, so we can't share everything here), the Blue Jays were listed, quite obviously, as a team that needs to make a move this offseason. Save your obligatory "no duh" for now, as one particular thing that Passan noted, somewhat in passing, is rather worrisome for a team that is far from the class of the AL East. It may not have been all that surprising when Shohei Ohtani chose the Dodgers or when Juan Soto chose the Mets, but the Blue Jays still finished somewhere in those sweepstakes. Was it off the podium? Most likely, but there's a difference between finishing fifth because Ohtani wanted to stay in Los Angeles on a $700-million deal and finishing fifth because Ohtani was worried that the team wouldn't be any good after 2025. Now, we don't know to what extent certain players — or even which free agents — took the Blue Jays' lackluster farm system into account when deciding not to come to Toronto. It's a lot to ask human beings to move their families to a new country. Unless a player is from Canada, it's not all that likely they're looking to head north of the United States. Still, this notion that the team's uncertain and uninspiring future is costing them tangible talent in the present is depressing at best and a condemnation at worst. You can see what our community members have had to say about this report over on the rumor forums of the site, but suffice to say: fans aren't happy. Take a look at different outlets' consensus Top 100 prospect rankings, and you won't find many Blue Jays prospects on those lists. MLB.com's rankings only place Trey Yesavage on the list (at the very back at No. 94), while FanGraphs is a bit nicer, giving Orelvis Martinez, Ricky Tiedemann, and Jake Bloss spots in the 80-95 range. Argue over those rankings all you like, the point stands that the farm system is lacking impact talent. Of course, the Jays are also lacking impact talent at the big league level, and what little they do have is dangerously close to walking out the door. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are both impending free agents following the 2025 season, and Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Bassitt are set to join them following the 2026 season. Toronto currently has just two players on its major league payroll that are pre-arbitration: 28-year-old Bowden Francis and Davis Schneider, who hit .191 in nearly 400 at-bats last year. Now, before we let ourselves sink into some Sartre-level existentialism, let's remind ourselves that this is merely a warning sign, not the actual doomsday siren. There's still time for the team to ink Guerrero and Bichette to extensions, or, at the very least, beef up that weak farm system by exchanging them on the trade market for top prospects. And while much of the rotation is aging and expensive, most of the team's best prospects are pitchers at various levels of the organization. Plus, plenty of quality free agents are still out there this offseason, including Anthony Santander, to whom the Jays have been extensively linked. So, yes, the Blue Jays are caught between a rock and a hard place right now. They've been kicking the can down the road for years, and it's finally back-boarded off a street sign and struck them directly in the face. 2025 may prove to be a last stand for this core — as well as the front office brain trust — but that doesn't mean the Blue Jays can't make some moves in the second half of this offseason that would position them better for the future. Then again, I say that as someone who would gladly accept $5 million to move to Canada. For actual MLB players, that may not be quite the selling point we want it to be. View full article

Sorry if I didn't make it clear enough in the piece: he was in the 29th percentile in EV in 2022. It's never been a strong suit for him, but the difference between an 87.8 MPH EV (where he was in 2022) and 86.3 MPH EV (2024) is monumental for a guy with his speed and hands. I agree that the Blue Jays probably won't be able to restore him to his MVP-caliber form, but he's a much better player than he showed last year. There's gotta be something in his profile the team really liked to give up Horwitz for him.