Brock Beauchamp

Owen Hill is joined by Matt Creally to talk about the Blue Jays' meltdown and fumbling another chance to get to and above .500. They talk about the puzzling pick-off attempt towards third base by Jeff Hoffman, Luis Urias' confounding baserunning error, and George Springer's lack of execution in extra innings in a wide-ranging conversation about the importance of execution. Matt brings analysis to Shane Bieber's disappointing season debut before the guys get to a positive Dylan Cease performance and preview the upcoming four-game set against the Texas Rangers. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jays-centre-podcast/id1846108462 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Bi7SzfpcqMo5xYWnbCeoL Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-jays-centre-podcast-300304824/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/2qk9wqxd Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@jayscentre

Victor Arias was signed by the Toronto Blue Jays out of Venezuela in 2019. It has been a long and winding path for him through the minor leagues, as he pushes toward the majors. It started with an above-average showing as a 17-year-old in the Dominican Summer League (DSL) in 2021. He had a 118 wRC+ to go with a slash line of .248/.388/.339, two home runs, and an elite walk rate of 17.9%. Sticking out as a negative would be his groundball rate of 52.1%, and that hasn't improved much over the years. In 2022, Arias repeated the DSL for a short 19-game stint. He got the ball in the air more, and his numbers jumped up, with him seeing his batting average rise to .315 and his on-base rate to .448. The next year saw a shortened season for him; he only played in 41 games at Rookie ball and three each at Single A and Double A. Despite being young, he still had a 109 wRC+ over those 47 games and a walk rate of 17.6%. 2024 would see Arias get a mostly full season, this time at Single A for 76 games. He really stepped up his game with a 146 wRC+ and earned a short 11-game stretch at High A to end the year. There, he stood out over the small sample, hitting .324/.425/.353 with a 150 wRC+. In 2025, he played the most games in one season of his minor league career, 102 between High-A Vancouver and Double-A New Hampshire. Combined, he would slash .272/.353/.403, with a 114 wRC+, launching seven home runs and seven triples and swiping 18 bags. What To Like Arias doesn't have a big frame, listed at 5-foot-9 and 150 pounds, but he puts everything he has into his swings. At one point in 2025, he was sporting a very good average exit velocity and 90th percentile exit velocity, 93 mph and 110.1 mph, respectively, according to Baseball America. His swing speeds are exceptional, and he transfers his weight well with his leg kick. This helped him to hit seven home runs, seven triples (98th percentile), and 19 doubles (80th percentile) last season. The young outfielder pairs his great exit velocities with above-average speed on the bases. He swiped 18 bags in 2025, which was good enough for the 80th percentile in the minor leagues. It appears he is well on his way to having an above-average profile with the bat, especially when it comes to extra-base hits, along with above-average potential on the bases. What To Work On The thing Arias needs to work on most is also the reason his elite raw power hasn't translated into more in-game power: his launch angles. He routinely has been a hitter who pounds the ball into the ground. He is also rather consistent with his groundball rates, hovering around 50-54% for his minor league career. Aside from his short sample in his second year at the DSL level, he has hit groundballs at a feverish pace (52%, 52%, 53%, 51%, 54%). If nothing changes, it will definitely be expected for those numbers to continue to climb as he moves up levels and faces tougher pitching. If he can drop that number down to the upper 30s or lower 40s, he would see a dramatic jump in his home run total. Pull-side power is how Arias will make a name for himself, if he can keep the ball in the air more than he has in the past, but he also needs to use the middle of the field more. He only hit 24.6% of his batted balls up the middle this past year. When he is facing tougher lefty-on-lefty matchups, he will need to hit the ball back up the middle or to the opposite field more. In 2025, he hit just .242/.301/.305 versus left-handed pitchers and didn't hit any home runs. As he continues to move up levels, he will need to improve those numbers against lefties, or he may ultimately fall into a utility role or drop back into a fourth outfielder type of potential outcome. What's Next? Arias will likely begin 2026 at Double-A New Hampshire and look to keep hitting his way up levels. If he can improve his groundball rates and keep the ball in the air more, he will see his raw power and elite swing speed translate to more home run power. This should see him unlock his true dual-threat potential as a hitter. The Blue Jays lack power/speed outfielders in the upper minors, so if Arias can keep improving and fix some of his launch angle issues, he may make it up to Triple-A Buffalo by the end of the season and push for some major league at-bats come 2027, when the Blue Jays' outfield should be less crowded.

Owen and Jesse break down the Jays' 1-1 shortened series split in Chicago against the Cubs. They talk about a disappointing 16-2 loss in game one, where Kevin Gausman really struggled, Brendan Little made a less than triumphant return, and Myles Straw pitched before getting into the many positives from an 8-6 win in game two. They talk about Kazuma Okamoto's successful rookie season, George Springer's resurgence, and Daulton Varsho's big homer. The guys talk about Anthony Santander's potential return, Shane Bieber's upcoming start against the Astros, and use the extra time for a game of Agree or Disagree before taking listener questions and previewing the upcoming series. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jays-centre-podcast/id1846108462 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Bi7SzfpcqMo5xYWnbCeoL Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-jays-centre-podcast-300304824/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/2qk9wqxd Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@jayscentre

The oft-injured player once again started the season on the injured list, but in his return, he has performed just enough to hop onto the list at the bottom rung. After returning from rehab assignment in Dunedin, Pinto has hit .245/.351/.439 in New Hampshire for a 110 wRC+, while walking just as much as he’s struck out at 13.8%. He wasn’t hitting homers at the rate he did in the small sample he posted in the previous season, but he’s shown some juice with four homers of the season to pair with a solid contact rate of 78.6%. Pinto’s ability to control his small zone, make hard contact when he makes contact whilst having a solid contact rate makes him an intriguing prospect in the system, and since he’s at least an average second baseman defensively with the capability of playing the outfield with solid speed despite not playing their yet this season, he’s an interesting look for a Jays team that’s lacking up the middle bats that hit righty with upside like this. The profile is unique and despite being traded for four years ago, he’ll turn just 24 this season. He will need to be added to the 40-man roster as he is rule-5 eligible, and the health will need to hold up for Pinto to have a path to the majors. With 147 PAs he’s already played more than he did in any season since 2023, and if he continues to hit like this very well might get added to the 40-man.

Austin Cates was the Jays 7th round pick in 2024 out of UNLV, and had a very successful first professional season, pitching over 100 innings to a 3.12 ERA/3.55 FIP and finished the season stronger than he started after getting promoted to Vancouver. Cates got 24 innings in Vancouver before earning a callup to New Hampshire, where he has a 4.58 ERA/4.14 FIP with a 21.9 K% to a 12.6 BB%. Despite the middling numbers, the offensive environment in the minors has taken a jump so that’s actually a better than average performance in the Eastern League. The standout traits for Cates don’t really exist, as he’s an average sized pitcher with middling stuff, but he has a devastating splitter that he uses quite effectively. The fastball is only in the 91-93 range, but he’s topped out at 95 here and there with decent ride. The slider shape isn’t the greatest and doesn’t generate many whiffs, but is a pitch he can command. He introduced a curveball that he could use as a get me over pitch, but hasn’t shown much else. The main star of the show is the splitter in the mid 80s, and when it’s on can generate a ton of whiffs and chases. Cates’ command is just average, and with his middling fastball velocity, needs more than just one good pitch to be a rotation piece, but can work as a depth starter or multi-inning reliever if he progresses well. A bump in velocity or better breaking balls could put him in back-end rotation talks.

Carson Messina was a highly anticipated high school signing out of Summerville High School and pitched just two innings in 2025 before getting put on the injured list. His return to the mound in 2026 was domination, as he ranked near the top of many pitching leaderboards, before earning a promotion to Dunedin in June. He frequently touched the upper 90s in the Florida Complex League, but in his couple of starts in Low-A Dunedin his velocity was only sitting 93-94 mph, but he has shown the capability of reaching back for more topping out at 96 mph. The results haven’t been the prettiest with a 6.35 ERA in a tiny sample, but his stuff looked great despite the diminished velocity. His fastball showed plus ride with a -4.5 vertical approach angle which makes it harder for hitters to square up and he has an 80 mph curveball with a more than 34 inch vertical separation from his fastball that has generated a lot of whiffs. He does have a cut slider as well in the mid 80s. With the positive shape and movement of his pitches, Messina has carried a 32.2% K rate so far this season, but he also has struggled with his command, as more advanced Low-A hitters are less susceptible to swinging at his pitches out of the zone. The 6ft 3 righty has mid-rotation upside if he can continue his velocity uptick and improve his command.

Daniel Guerra was an international signee out of Venezuela in 2022, and he slowly made his way stateside, making his Low-A debut in Dunedin in 2024. At age 21 he pitched a full season in Low-A Dunedin, and although he struggled a little bit in the first few months of that season, he began to really pick it up at the end of the 2025 season, the stuff jumped as he went later on in the season, where he capped off his season with a six perfect innings against the Mighty Mussels on August 30th, 2025. Guerra was promoted to Vancouver in the 2026 season and immediately made an impact, as heading into early June, Guerra was in the top five in all of the minors in strikeouts. Unfortunately for him, he was taken out early in a game on June 9th and was put on the 7-day IL to put a damper on his breakout season. Guerra has a prototypical starter's build, standing 6ft 6 inches and weighing 230 pounds. His delivery comes more over the top, leading to funky angles for opposing hitters, and with his increased mid-to-high 90s fastball velocity is very tough for hitters. Given his high slot, Guerra generates elite ride on his fastball, and he was able to get on it as well. His main secondary is a cut-slider that also jumped in velocity this season, into the high 80s, which was a great whiff generator for him. He has a developing third pitch with a changeup as well, but he’s still figuring out the feel for it. With two plus pitches and shaky command, Guerra’s future seems more likely in the back end of a bullpen, but if he can reign in the control and sharpen up the changeup there’s some rotation upside as well.

Owen and Jesse are overjoyed to get to talk about the Blue Jays' first series sweep since opening weekend against the Athletics. They talk about Trey Yesavage's impressive 7 1/3 inning start in the third game of the series, give flowers to Spencer Miles, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Louis Varland for the game two victory, and break down Dylan Cease's rocky but effective start in game one. After the break, they get into the offense and have nice things to say about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after his homer in game three. They marvel over Brandon Valenzuela's ninth-inning at-bat against Aroldis Chapman in game three, talk about optimism with George Springer, and take joy in Davis Schneider's power outburst. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jays-centre-podcast/id1846108462 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Bi7SzfpcqMo5xYWnbCeoL Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-jays-centre-podcast-300304824/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/2qk9wqxd Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@jayscentre

Unlike other publications, Jays Centre enables all users to contribute to our top prospect rankings. Anyone with a Jays Centre account can participate and give their input on who they think should be in the Blue Jays' top prospects list. Before you vote, you can hit our top prospects page for the latest stats and news on Blue Jays prospects, while on the voting page, every name is a clickable link that brings up their current stat card. Voting is simple, just follow the instructions below! Here's the rundown on how to participate: 1. You must have an account and be logged in to vote. If you don't have an account, click here. It requires only 60 seconds to create an account. 2. Review our current top 20 prospect list, catch up on stats, rankings, etc. (you can do so from the voting page link below) 3. Have your prospect list in your filthy little paws? Then flip on over to the new prospect voting page (after reading the rest of this, please). https://jayscentre.com/prospect-voting 4. Voting is super simple; you drag and drop players in the order you wish them to be. After you move a prospect, the list automatically renumbers so you don't lose track of the order. This works on mobile devices, but it's a *vastly* better experience on desktop. Sorry, that's just how this kind of thing works. There's no excellent way to make something like this as awesome on a phone screen. 5. Each prospect has a comment section where you can add any commentary you have on that player. At the bottom of the list, there is a general comment section to explain over-arching things you'd like to mention. 6. Don't see a prospect you want to put on the list? Just pop back here and give me a mention (in a comment, start typing @Brock Beauchamp and select my name after it appears). Please mention the prospect you would like added, and I will do so as soon as possible. 7. Once you're done with all of it, click Save. You've now voted! 8. When the voting closes, a new thread will automatically generate in the minor league forum with all of your rankings and comments for everyone to read and talk about. 9. You can only vote once. If you have voted in error, pop back here and tag Brock to ask to have your vote deleted. It will be removed, and you can vote again. Voting closes Wednesday, June 17.