Will The Blue Jays Play The Rule 5 Waiting Game Again in 2025?

In the 2024 Rule 5 draft, the Jays were picking sixth (yes, it was a tough year!). They chose Angel Bastardo from the Red Sox. In some ways, Bastardo was a classic Rule 5 pick: he had a starter’s arsenal with a 50-grade fastball, slider, and curve, and an “out pitch” in his 60-grade changeup, "an 84-88 mph offering that dies as it approaches the plate as if an invisible parachute has popped out of the back of it" (per FanGraphs). And even if he did not make it as a starter, he could profile as a particularly nasty late-inning reliever. The issue with Bastardo was his health – he had Tommy John surgery in June 2024 and was expected to miss most or all of the 2025 season. So if the Jays took him, they would have to carry him for all of 2025 (using up a 40-man roster spot) before they could meet the 90-day test in 2026. But Toronto clearly thought the upside justified the cost.

The Jays currently have 38 players on their 40-man roster. This implies that they want to have the flexibility to make Rule 5 pickups in the upcoming December 10 draft. Might they be considering a similar strategy in 2025? Choosing a player with high upside, but who will be injured for most of 2026?

In nine games (eight starts) at double-A ball in 2025, Yordanny Monegro had a 2.67 ERA (2.34 FIP) and a 13.10 K/9 as compared to a 2.14 BB/9. In 2024, in class A+ ball, he finished the season with 42 innings without an earned run. He has four pitches graded (by MLB.com) at 50 or better, and his control is also a 50 grade. But Monegro had Tommy John surgery in August 2025 and is expected to miss most or all of 2026.

There are other red flags, as MLB.com notes:

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Though Monegro has size and athleticism in his favor and has toned down his delivery while improving his control, there are questions about whether he can survive as a long-term starter. He pitches backwards because his fastballs don't have much movement or deception, so he needs to find more life or add velocity as he continues to fill out his 6-foot-4 frame. If he can't, he'll probably be a slider-heavy reliever, and those concerns contributed to the Red Sox not protecting him on the 40-man roster during the offseason.

Monegro fits the classic high-upside, high-risk pitcher profile. At one time, his upper-70s curveball was ranked as the highest in the Boston farm system, and his pitch mix is still improving (he only added his now-55-grade slider in 2023). So the potential is very real for either a mid-rotation starter or a strong middle-relief/swingman. But the issues with his inconsistent delivery are equally real.

There was a time when to say that a pitcher carried “reliever risk” was considered a very strong negative. But with the price of good relievers increasing, and with the importance of a good-to-great bullpen becoming increasingly evident, having a Bastardo or Monegro “only” becoming a Yimi Garcia or Eric Lauer is no longer a negative.  If anything, having high reliever potential as a backup plan adds to their value.

It is true that the Jays will be picking much later (29th) in the upcoming Rule 5 draft. So it is entirely possible that Monegro might be chosen before then. But Rule 5 picks can be traded, so if Toronto really believed in Monegro’s potential, they might be able to swing a deal with one of the teams picking earlier (Rockies / White Sox / Twins?) whereby that team picks Monegro and then trades them to Toronto. The Jays would then be subject to the same rules as if they had chosen Monegro themselves.

The Bottom Line
It has become increasingly difficult for teams to find good pitching talent. Even mediocre starting pitching has become very expensive on the free agent market (and top-of-rotation starters even more so). Teams are reluctant to trade young pitching, and when they do, their asks can be extortionate. So it behooves teams to be creative in their search for good pitching help. Bastardo was a gamble in 2024, but an intelligent and high-upside one. Monegro could be a similar intelligent gamble in 2025.