Tyler Rogers Is Holding Up His End of the Bargain

Over the winter, the Blue Jays signed Tyler Rogers to the richest relief pitcher contract in franchise history. If you weren't at least a little surprised by the $37 million guarantee he secured, you're either psychic, a Blue Jays front office employee, or a liar. 

The team at MLB Trade Rumors predicted he would sign a two-year, $18 million deal. Ben Clemens of FanGraphs was slightly higher on Rogers, proposing two years and $22 million. FanGraphs readers suggested a much lower number; their average prediction was $13.4 million guaranteed. The most lucrative projected contract I could find for Rogers (from a major media outlet) came from Kiley McDaniel at ESPN. Yet, even his relatively high guess – three years and $27 million – turned out to be $10 million too low. 

It's not that any of those sources doubted Rogers's talent. It's just that $37 million is a lot of money for a non-closer, and three years is a long guarantee for a reliever about to turn 35.

According to the MLB Trade Rumors Contract Tracker, 24 relievers have signed a free agent contract worth at least $37 million in the last 20 years. The only one of them, besides Rogers, who wasn't an established closer was Jordan Hicks, and he doesn't really count. The Giants signed him to a four-year, $44 million deal with the goal of converting him into a starter. 

In that same 20-year span, just nine relievers have signed a three-year contract entering their age-35 (or older) season. Only three earned more than $25 million. The first was Mariano Rivera, the greatest closer of all time. The second was Robert Suarez, a two-time All-Star who led the NL in saves the year prior. The third was Tyler Rogers.

From 2020-25, Rogers pitched more games and threw more innings than any other reliever in the league. He did so with a 2.84 ERA and 2.96 xERA. He was equal parts dominant and durable, thanks to a submarine delivery that helped him stifle opposing hitters without throwing high heat.

Even so, his contract came as a surprise last winter. 

One season later, it's clear the Blue Jays knew exactly what they were doing. If anything, $37 million might not have been enough. 

Rogers has thrown 67.2 innings in 70 games for the Toronto. He owns a 1.73 ERA. He's pitching one of the greatest setup seasons the team has ever seen. 

Louis Varland is stealing most of the attention, and rightfully so. Yet, if it weren't for Varland, there's a good chance Rogers would have taken over the closing job when Hoffman struggled. If Rogers The Closer were to have anything like the success he's had as Rogers The Setup Man, he probably would have made his first All-Star team this summer. He probably would have earned consideration for the BBWAA Reliever of the Year Award this fall. That's how well Rogers has pitched this season – even if he's only the second best arm in his own bullpen.

I'm not suggesting Rogers should resent Varland. The two owe each other a great deal of gratitude. Rogers has set Varland up for many of his 32 saves. Meanwhile, Varland taking over as the closer has allowed Rogers to continue rising up the holds leaderboard. 

Holds are not an "official MLB statistic", whatever that means. FanGraphs has data on holds dating back to 2002, and in that time, Rogers ranks 11th with 186 holds. He's one shy of cracking the top 10 and only 60 away from tying Tony Watson in first place. 

Rogers has already set the Blue Jays' single-season record (since 2002) with his 32 holds this year. His next hold this season will mark a new career high. He's never come particularly close to the league-wide record (41), but he is the only pitcher with five 30-hold seasons to his name. Scot Shields had four. David Robertson had four. Only a handful of pitchers have even reached 30 holds more than once. 

Perhaps it's a backhanded compliment to call Rogers one of the greatest setup men in recent history. Closers already have to deal with the "failed starter" criticisms. And you could say that setup men are just the guys who weren't good enough to be closers. 

That said, I don't think there's anything wrong with pointing out just how much Rogers has excelled at the job he's been asked to perform. He might be making a lot of money, but Tyler Rogers is absolutely holding up his end of the bargain. 

Are you optimistic about the Blue Jays right now?

Are you optimistic about the Blue Jays right now?

• Are you optimistic about the Blue Jays right now? Required
  

  
• Save

See All Blue Jays Polls >