The Blue Jays Are Smart To Be Cautious With Shane Bieber's Arm

During Ross Atkins’s initial media availability at the Winter Meetings in Orlando, he provided an update about Shane Bieber’s health that left some pundits a bit concerned. Atkins said that Bieber is in a "strong position" physically with a realistic path to Opening Day. Yet, the GM emphasized that the team will be monitoring Bieber week to week and is considering staggering his offseason and spring training workload. That means he may not be 100 percent ready by the start of the regular season.

In Atkins's exact words, “As of right now, [Bieber is] in a strong position. And I suppose as he starts to ramp up, we could consider some stagger and the potential of him, you know, not being at 100 percent at the very start, but we’re taking it kind of a week at a time at this point” (via Sportnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith).

Bieber’s situation is particularly significant because he is not just any starter. He is the Jays' number three starter and a former Cy Young Award winner who demonstrated he still has what it takes to be a dominant presence in the majors.

The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2024, and his first action since returning to the majors was with the Jays down the stretch. In seven regular season games, Bieber was effective, and his success and reliability helped Toronto get to within a couple of outs of a World Series title.

According to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, a number of MLB executives were “baffled” by Bieber’s decision to opt in to his $16 million option for 2026. Now, with news of an apparent health issue, that decision might be better understood.

According to Rosenthal's colleague Mitch Bannon, Bieber has already started offseason recovery and rehab work as a result of forearm fatigue experienced at the end of the season.

If Bieber potentially couldn’t pass a physical, then his decision to opt into a team-friendly deal makes a bit more sense.

Forearm fatigue after Tommy John surgery is neither rare nor trivial. The flexor-pronator mass plays an important role in stabilizing the elbow, and its adaptation under game stress takes time. The plan, as laid out by Atkins, calls for the team to monitor Bieber week to week and potentially reduce his spring workload. That aligns with best practices.

Whether it is a pitcher or a weekend tennis player, physiology researchers say spacing out high-intensity sessions, tracking recovery markers, and avoiding cumulative stress are key to rehabilitation. By considering early-season pitch count limits and occasional skipped side sessions, the Jays aim to preserve Bieber’s effectiveness across a full season.

With that said, forearm injuries can be tricky to resolve. Several top-tier pitchers have dealt with forearm fatigue, including Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, both during their time with the Mets. DeGrom required a second Tommy John surgery in 2023, loosely connected with his forearm fatigue issues. Since his return in late 2024, he has been quite successful.

Syndergaard has had several arm issues throughout his career. His arm issues date back to 2014, while in the minors, when he was placed on the injured list for a forearm (flexor-pronator) strain. He missed the entire 2020 season and most of the 2021 season as a result of Tommy John surgery. He did pitch in 2022 and 2023, but hasn’t appeared in a major league game since 2023 and is currently a free agent.

Kyle Lohse experienced forearm issues during the middle of his career. After his forearm issues were resolved through surgery in 2010, he pitched another four strong seasons for the Cardinals and Brewers.

Atkins’s remarks were deliberate and perhaps intended to set the stage should Bieber's rehab not go as planned. He projected confidence in the 2020 AL Cy Young winner's trajectory while avoiding any guarantees, thereby signaling that the organization values flexibility over expediting the rehab.

The week-to-week language he used is standard in return-to-play plans, but its presence underscores the Jays’ intent to prioritize quality over quantity during spring training.

If Bieber experiences minor setbacks, these comments allow adjustments without framing those setbacks as failures. This is especially important given the late-season forearm fatigue, which typically requires careful management of throw volume, intensity, and recovery windows.

While one can only guess, the high-adrenaline and high-intensity outings Bieber pitched in during the stretch run and into the postseason presumably put additional strain on his arm and most likely caused the fatigue. He pitched 40.1 regular season innings and another 18.2 in the postseason, with an ERA under 4.00.

News of his upcoming ramp-up further explains the Jays' recent starting pitcher signings. The club signed Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million deal and added depth with Cody Ponce. They are continuing to explore additional pitching options.

This redundancy will allow them to manage Bieber conservatively without sacrificing early-season competitiveness. If Bieber needs a staggered start or reduced pitch counts in April, the rotation of Cease, Kevin Gausman, Ponce, Trey Yesavage, and José Berríos can absorb the load.

This depth-first approach isn’t uncommon for teams with postseason aspirations, where marginal gains in pitcher health translate into disproportionate postseason value.

The 2026 season will ultimately judge whether the approach being taken by the Jays when it comes to Bieber is correct. Atkins’s Winter Meetings remarks suggest that the Blue Jays understand the terrain. As a former minor league pitcher, Atkins probably understands the situation a little bit better than most.

The way he is handling the situation, while frustrating for some fans, is most likely well-received by pitchers in the organization. Prioritizing long-term health over short-term gain can be part of a team’s culture. It might even influence some players to join an organization when they feel it will look after them rather than just use them.

When the Jays traded for Bieber, they were hoping he would be able to return to his top form. He certainly demonstrated that he can still pitch at a high level, and now the Jays will ramp him up cautiously in 2026 to ensure he can play a similar role as he did in 2025.  

With a deep starting rotation that reduces the temptation to rush, the Jays can be cautious with Bieber. That patience could serve them well as the 2026 season unfolds.