The Seven Most Pivotal Plays of the ALCS

The World Series is almost here, but before it begins, I want to take one last chance to look back at the ALCS. It was a thrilling roller coaster of a series from Game 1 to Game 7, with no shortage of moments we’ll be talking about for years to come. 

The following is a list (with videos!) of the seven most pivotal plays from the ALCS, according to FanGraphs’ Win Probability Added (WPA). I chose seven plays to recognize the fact that the series went seven games, but you’ll only see four of those games reflected here. You’ll also only see plays that helped the Blue Jays win the series. 

The Mariners won three games – and enjoyed plenty of their own big moments along the way. Yet, when all was said and done, it was only the Blue Jays’ four wins, and the plays that got them there, that really mattered. 

One last note before I dive in: You might be surprised that ALCS MVP Vladimir Guerrero Jr. isn’t anywhere to be found on this list. That’s no mistake. As dominant as he was all series long, Guerrero wasn’t responsible for any of the team’s biggest individual moments. In fact, he somehow finished the ALCS with a negative WPA (-0.02). 

Does that mean his MVP was undeserved? Of course not. At least, I don’t think so. But the Blue Jays have made it this far because of all the different contributors who pulled their weight, and I’m glad to see so many of them reflected on the list of plays below.

The Addison Barger Game
Game 6, +.124 WPA x2

Trey Yesvage was terrific in Game 6, but this was Addison Barger’s night. He started off the scoring with an RBI single to right field in the bottom of the second. His hit also advanced Ernie Clement to third, and Clement would score on the next at-bat. 

The following inning, Barger was the hero once more, this time crushing a bomb to deep right-center that doubled Toronto’s lead. The Blue Jays would go on to win 6-2, and Barger’s two big hits helped them score four of those runs. 

Double Play Number One
Game 6, +.167 WPA

WPA isn’t designed for capturing defensive value, but it couldn’t help but take notice of this game-changing double play. The first of three consecutive inning-ending double plays in Game 6 was also the most critical. With the bases loaded and star slugger Cal Raleigh at the plate, Yesavage induced a chopper to first base, escaping the jam and protecting Toronto’s 2-0 lead.

Honourable mention goes to the double play that ended the following frame. With a WPA of +.121 for the Blue Jays, it just missed out on making this list. 

Varsho Breaks It Open
Game 3, +.175 WPA

The Blue Jays already had the lead when Daulton Varsho ripped a double to right field in the third inning of Game 3, scoring two. Yet, it was Varsho’s hit that started to turn this game from a close contest into the 13-4 rout it would eventually become. 

Andrés Giménez Goes Back-to-Back With Himself
Games 3 and 4, +.167 WPA and +.177 WPA

Before Springer stole the spotlight (more on that in a moment), Andrés Giménez was the home run hero of the series. Never known for his power, the stopgap shortstop came up huge in Games 3 and 4, putting the Blue Jays on the board with a two-run home run in the third inning of both games.

Game 3:

Game 4:

The Springer Dinger 
Game 7, +.407 WPA

The numbers only confirm what we already knew: George Springer’s three-run home run in Game 7 was the most pivotal play of the ALCS, and it wasn’t close. This one speaks for itself.