Shape of the Blue Jays: Guerrero, Clement, Offseason Target?

Welcome to Shape of the Blue Jays, my column where I dig into Statcast numbers to analyze recent pitch shape and swing shape trends for Toronto Blue Jays players and discuss how they have impacted their performance. Click here to read the last edition.

All stats entering September 24, 2026, unless otherwise stated.

Quick Hits: José Rodríguez

• The 6-foot-6 righty with one of the more closed windups you'll ever see was optioned to the spring training complex on Wednesday night in favour of fresh arms for the second game of the Jays' doubleheader in Baltimore, but I like him as a sleeper to make next year's roster out of camp.
• In his first 4.2 big-league innings, he has struck out five without giving up an earned run or a walk.
• His devastating high-80s kick changeup, 97-mph bowling ball sinker, 98-mph running four-seamer, and mid-high-80s gyro slider all have whiff rates of at least 33% in the handful of MLB appearances he's made so far. 
• His command will need some work. His walk rate was 14%, and his overall in-zone rate was 42% at Triple A this season. However, the stuff is intriguing, and guys with unorthodox release traits have become a calling card for the organization.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Jays are officially eliminated from playoff contention, and I'm sure we'll soon get a piece from one of the team's credentialed reporters that tells us more about what really happened to #27 this year. Until then, though, I'll try to sum it up as quickly as I can now that we know the season-saving hot stretch isn't going to happen: He didn't hit the ball nearly as hard because he chased far too much. The story is the same as it's been for a while now.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Baseball Savant Percentiles Comparison, 2025 vs 2026

Keegan Matheson's recent story in the wake of the PR nightmare Guerrero recently stirred up with comments about his contract contains quotes from John Schneider vouching for his first baseman's willingness to try new things as he struggled. I'd argue he wasn't experimental enough in the box.

Breaking his season down by month, there were hardly any on-the-fly changes to Guerrero's stance with respect to his depth in the box, the distance he stood from the plate, and the space between his feet. Comfortability matters in the box, and these kinds of adjustments don't always come easily once the season is underway. The number of times Guerrero had to sit a day or two with back tightness, especially down the stretch, leads me to believe he was playing through something worse than anyone let on. Still, in retrospect, more radical attempts at snapping out of it might not have been the worst idea.

Lately, I've found myself looking across at the National League at the San Diego Padres. The Jays and Padres met in the last series before the All-Star break in not too dissimilar a position.

Since then, the Friars have a 40-22 record, third-best in MLB and more than enough to qualify for the postseason. A big reason why is Fernando Tatis Jr., who is running a 171 wRC+ in that span after going homer-less for the first two months of the year. He opened his stance considerably and largely cut out his pre-load hand movement beginning in June, a couple things we didn't see from Guerrero at all. I'm the farthest thing from a hitting coach, but it's easy to wonder what could've been.

Ernie Clement

I feel for Clement, whose OPS since the trade deadline begins with a 4. I tend to agree with the train of thought that he needs this offseason more than anyone else as a career utilityman who suddenly played seven straight months of baseball before a very short winter followed by 155 more games and counting. His regression on the defensive side supports that theory. The complete lack of slug from this lineup isn't his fault, as he's never been a power hitter, but that doesn't mean he's immune from chasing more either. A mid-40s chase rate probably exceeds the acceptable ceiling for a productive MLB hitter.

Ernie Clement Baseball Savant Percentiles Comparison, 2025 vs 2026

There's still a spot for Clement on this roster. I'd be totally fine with him platooning with Josh Smith, taking a greater share of his at-bats against lefties, getting more off days and some more time at different positions. Ultimately, he did little to suggest he should be an everyday hitter for a contending team moving forward, so the Blue Jays will have some hitters on their wish list this offseason. Speaking of...

An Early Offseason Target?

The 2026 Jays featured one of the worst offenses in the franchise's 50-year history, and as with their first baseman, it mostly boils down to a lack of discipline and slug. Luckily, there should be a cost-effective option on the free agent market that would fit like a glove on any team with those issues. Only two players in the entire league placed in the 90th percentile or better in both bat speed and chase rate this season. One of them, James Wood, is a cornerstone outfielder for the Washington Nationals and won't be on the block anytime soon. What about the other?

Jake Bauers is hitting free agency for the first time this offseason. He's going to be cheaper than most others with his tools because he's relatively unproven and doesn't really have a position, being a defensive liability at first base and the corner outfield spots. The case against signing him is the existence of Anthony Santander, but the first two years of his contract have shown we can't assume he'll be ready to contribute. Bauers has been good enough offensively to be a full-time DH this year and hasn't had a problem with left-handed pitching despite being a lefty hitter, which Jesús Sánchez could never lay claim to even in the best of times. I'd love to see this sort of profile in Toronto's lineup in 2027, lockout permitting.