This Wasn’t the Season the Blue Jays Expected

The problem with success is that it is often taken for granted. It took more than thirty years for the Jays to return to the World Series, yet fans expected another return in 2026.

Even without the injuries and underperformance, I'm not sure the 2026 Blue Jays had enough firepower to battle for the division. They would, however, have had a legitimate shot at a Wild Card spot, especially considering the lacklustre competition in the American League this year.

As this season fades away, we evaluate the ’26 Jays and their minus-47 run differential.

No need to gloss over a season that never took flight. The team had lots of hype. The players and coaching staff seemed confident, but with the Rays and Yankees starting out strong, the Jays were left to chase them all season. That chase was, for the most part, short-handed.

Few Blue Jays seasons have tested an organization's pitching depth quite like this one. Toronto headed into the season with at least seven starting pitchers. It opened with Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber and José Berríos already injured. Then Cody Ponce suffered a serious ACL injury almost immediately. Max Scherzer had a nerve issue which sidelined him early.

So, here is the near-final report card.

Stats from before games on September 23.

Starting Pitching

• Grade: B

The Jays had to cycle through starters, openers, bulk pitchers and emergency options just to cover innings. As of late September, 15 different pitchers have had starting assignments.

Dylan Cease was a big offseason signing, and he did not disappoint. There were a handful of starts throughout the season where his velocity was down and his control was off, but for the most part he was elite. In 29 starts and 169 innings, Cease produced a 2.40 ERA, 2.55 FIP and 5.5 FanGraphs WAR. His 34.9 percent strikeout rate easily offset his 11.4 percent walk rate.

Although traded at the deadline, soon-to-be free agent Kevin Gausman was a strong contributor. His 3.51 FIP, 23.5 percent strikeout rate and 6.7 percent walk rate were worth 2.6 fWAR in 127 1/3 innings. Unfortunately for Gausman, the Jays offense rarely supported his 4.38 ERA.

Yesavage had a slow ramp-up into the season and, despite knee surgery, still managed 95 2/3 major league innings with a 3.67 ERA. His 4.13 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and 11.7 percent walk rate indicate that he didn’t have the same control as in 2025, but he remains an important part of the rotation moving forward.

Spencer Miles was an unexpected success. Miles has accumulated 94 2/3 innings between eight starts and relief work with a 2.57 ERA, 2.65 FIP and 2.0 fWAR.

The not-so-pretty parts of the rotation were Scherzer, who provided a 6.07 ERA and 5.48 FIP over 72 2/3 innings; Patrick Corbin, who posted a 5.51 ERA and eventually went to the bullpen; and Bieber, who returned but wasn’t vintage Bieber, producing a 4.37 ERA and 5.14 FIP.

Yet evaluate the rotation against what Toronto was forced to endure injury-wise, and a B seems fair.

It wasn't the plentiful and dominant rotation the Blue Jays imagined in March. It was something almost as valuable: a rotation that repeatedly survived losing the pitchers it was built around.

Relief Pitching

• Grade: A-

Toronto's relievers kept the season functioning. We’ll get into whether they were overworked or not, but for the most part, when called upon, the bullpen was more than solid.

The most remarkable performance belongs to Louis Varland. FanGraphs credits him with a 1.29 ERA, 1.86 FIP, 31.3 percent strikeout rate, 55.5 percent ground-ball rate and 3.0 WAR over 77 innings.

Tyler Rogers has provided precisely the durability Toronto hoped for, pitching 70 innings across 73 appearances with a 1.80 ERA. Sure, there were four blown saves, but he was pinpoint for the majority of his appearances. His 63.7 percent groundball rate provided the Jays with a completely different type of weapon.

Mason Fluharty has appeared in 81 games, and Braydon Fisher in 74. Rogers has made 73 appearances and Varland 70. Jeff Hoffman, who was traded at the deadline, was not as bad as fans may remember him. A 3.94 ERA was accompanied by a 34.9 percent strikeout rate, 8.4 percent walk rate and 2.49 FIP.

The bullpen arms needed to be resilient, and they were. Even the numerous call-ups throughout the season showed signs of promise.

By June 2, Toronto had five relievers already on pace for at least 75 appearances. Heading into the final series of the regular season, the bullpen has logged over 600 innings. There are only six other teams in the MLB that have worked their bullpens that hard. MLB notes that no team has ever had five pitchers make 75 appearances in the same season.

The bullpen deserves the A-minus. It probably deserved a lighter workload too.

Defense

• Grade: C

This might be the most interesting part of Toronto's report card because the team's defensive identity has become increasingly uneven.

FanGraphs still credits Toronto with a positive 16.6 defensive runs overall, but that total obscures some enormous individual differences. Andrés Giménez has been credited with 19.6 defensive runs and Alejandro Kirk with 11.8. Brandon Valenzuela has contributed another 13.1.

Baseball Savant credits Kirk with an 11 Fielding Run Value, including elite blocking and excellent framing.

At the other end of the spectrum are some very damaging performances.

George Springer is at minus-12.8 defensive runs according to FanGraphs (keep in mind he mainly served as DH, which leads to a substantial positional penalty). Yohendrick Piñango is at minus-6.6. And then there is Jesús Sánchez.

FanGraphs credits Sánchez with minus-12.2 defensive runs during his 99 games as a Blue Jay. Baseball Savant rated him at minus-9 Fielding Run Value and minus-8 Outs Above Average, with his OAA ranking in the bottom five percent of MLB.

For most of the season, the defense was strong, but the weak spots were painfully weak.

Offense

• Grade: D

The Blue Jays didn't hit well enough this season for their offense to be a difference maker.

FanGraphs has Toronto at a 95 wRC+ as a team. The Jays have hit .248/.310/.382 with 149 home runs through 157 games. FanGraphs calculates their overall offensive contribution at minus-38.6 runs.

Baseball Savant points out that Toronto's hitters collectively produced a .305 wOBA against a .317 MLB average. Their .297 expected wOBA is well below MLB's .314 mark. The Blue Jays have a 34.1 percent hard-hit rate against a league average of 38.6 percent and only a 5.8 percent barrel rate compared with 7.7 percent rate league-wide.

Kazuma Okamoto has provided the lineup's most obvious source of traditional power, hitting 33 home runs with a .458 slugging percentage and 114 wRC+. His 13.2 percent barrel rate is more than twice Toronto's team rate.

Kirk was excellent when healthy, batting .283/.355/.423 with a 117 wRC+. Brett Bateman's late-season emergence was another bright spot, with a .320/.394/.413 line and 133 wRC+ over his first 172 plate appearances.

Nathan Lukes was consistent and had a strong stretch at the plate after addressing his vertigo issues. Springer remained an above-average hitter with a 107 wRC+.

Most analysts will point the blame for a poor team offense at Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladdy has hit .263/.336/.359. He has only nine home runs in 596 plate appearances, a .096 isolated-power figure and a 97 wRC+. Baseball Savant sees better underlying contact than the results, giving him a .335 xwOBA compared with an actual .309 wOBA, but even the expected numbers are a long way from the offensive dominance Toronto required from him.

Nearly half his batted balls have been on the ground, his average launch angle is just 8.3 degrees, and his barrel rate is only seven percent.

His inability to produce damage placed a huge burden on the rest of the lineup.

The Jays have a better team strikeout rate than MLB overall, 19 percent according to FanGraphs, so this was not some undisciplined lineup simply flailing at pitches. Toronto even made contact at a better rate than the league average according to Statcast. The offense just didn’t produce enough runs.

There were too many below-average bats and not enough elite ones to compensate.

Coaching

• Grade: C

John Schneider and his coaching staff faced an almost impossible pitching puzzle early. The Blue Jays opened the season without three intended starters. Ponce then suffered his ACL injury. Schneider consequently leaned extremely heavily on his bullpen. Managing as if every game were the playoffs.

Some of that overuse of leverage arms was effectively unavoidable. Some of it probably wasn't.

The team’s poor start meant they were chasing the standings.

One of the biggest jobs for Schneider and his coaching staff is evaluating match-ups and doing the best they can to find advantages within them. There are positives on the coaching ledger. Young players seemed to integrate well. Yesavage has continued his transition into a major league starter. Miles has been used creatively. Valenzuela and Bateman have contributed immediately.

But there is another side to coaching: getting more from an underperforming lineup.

Toronto received a 95 team wRC+ and dramatically below-average quality of contact. Guerrero never became the transformational offensive force the team needed. Several regulars remained below average for extended periods.

Coaches cannot hit for players. They cannot prevent injuries. What they can do is build a winning culture and prioritize the things that make a difference. If you’re looking for examples, look at the Red Sox, who replaced the majority of their coaching staff early, which dramatically changed their season.

Based on a broad evaluation, an average grade seems reasonable.

Front Office

• Grade: B

This grade may look generous, given a sub-.500 record, but much like the coaching staff, the front office never seemed to rest for the entirety of the season. They were forced to adapt like everyone else in the organization as injuries and underperformance persisted.

Offseason moves looked to address most of the pitching concerns from 2025, but the position-player half of the roster construction deserves scrutiny. A team with this many light-hitting regulars was vulnerable the moment its star hitters stopped carrying the offense. Toronto's .382 slugging percentage and 149 home runs are not going to cut it.

The offense lowers the front office’s grade to below an A.

Minor Leagues and Development

• Grade: B

For most of Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins’ reign, one of the central questions surrounding the Blue Jays organization was about a depleted minor league system.

FanGraphs entered 2026 ranking Yesavage Toronto's No. 1 prospect with a 60 Future Value grade, describing him as a potential No. 2 starter with No. 1 upside.

Valenzuela has accumulated 2.0 fWAR in just 264 plate appearances, driven heavily by his defensive value. Bateman has generated 1.7 fWAR in only 172 plate appearances while hitting .320/.394/.413. Piñango held his own offensively during his time with the big league squad. Sean Keys and Charles McAdoo also received major league opportunities.

Entering the year, FanGraphs ranked Arjun Nimmala as Toronto's No. 2 prospect with a 50 FV grade, followed by Jake Bloss, JoJo Parker, Ricky Tiedemann and Johnny King among an improving group of young players. Nimmala was traded at the deadline for José Soriano.

But compared with where this organization was a few years ago, the direction is positive. In fact, the system actually helped the major league club survive 2026.

Overall Grade

• Grade: C+

The final evaluation of the 2026 Blue Jays has to consider an underachieving team that also had to absorb more than its share of adversity.

A close-to-.500 record and negative run differential isn’t what was expected from a team that was outs (or inches, depending on how you remember it) away from a championship.

Jays fans can celebrate that Cease performed like an ace. Yesavage demonstrated that he is still legit. Miles emerged to become a consistent contributor. Varland turned into one of baseball's best closers. Fisher and Rogers supplied reliability. Kirk remained one of baseball's most valuable catchers when healthy. A group of young position players received opportunities that might otherwise never have existed.

2026 just wasn't the season Toronto expected.

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