Don’t Say It’s Over (But It's Probably Over)

The Blue Jays may have sealed their fate with back-to-back series losses to the Tigers and Rangers.

At this time last week, FanGraphs pegged Toronto's postseason odds at 36.1%. The Jays had played .600 ball since the trade deadline. Somehow, this team was making us believe again. 

Today, those odds are decimated (in the most literal sense of the word), down to just 3.6%. It would take a miracle for the Blue Jays to make the playoffs now.

Toronto is three games back of the White Sox for the final Wild Card spot. Unfortunately, the South Siders won the season series against the Jays, which means they hold the tiebreaker. The Blue Jays could win all six of their remaining games, and the White Sox would only have to go 3-3 to finish ahead of Toronto.

Now, the White Sox could still push ahead of the Guardians to win the AL Central... but that wouldn't make any difference for the Blue Jays. While Toronto holds the tiebreaker over Cleveland, the Guardians are currently four games ahead of the Jays. So, the Blue Jays could win all six of their remaining games, and the Guardians would only have to go 3-3 to finish ahead of Toronto. Sound familiar? 

Even if the Guardians and White Sox both struggle this week, the Blue Jays would also have to hold off whichever Texas team doesn't win the AL West. (Side note: Someone has to win the West, so it's very possible that one of the Rangers or Astros finishes with a worse record than the Blue Jays and still makes the playoffs. That will make me mad.)

All of this to say, this is either going to be the most exciting week of Blue Jays baseball you've ever watched, or – and this scenario is much more realistic – we're about to be let down. A whole lot of things have to go right, and most of those things are out of the Jays' control.  

One thing that is in Toronto's control is tonight's game in Baltimore, and the Blue Jays' chances got a little bit better with the news that Trey Yesavage will start the game. 

Yesavage hasn't pitched since August 4. He hit the injured list with knee inflammation and ultimately needed surgery to repair his meniscus. Thankfully, modern medicine is a miracle, and somehow, he's ready to pitch less than six weeks after his procedure.

According to Sportsnet's Arden Zwelling, we can expect about 45-50 pitches from the righty. It will most likely be the final start of his rookie season. Yesavage has faced his fair share of ups and downs, but all things considered, he has lived up to the promise he showed last fall. 

So, if nothing else, at least we can all look forward to watching Yesavage pitch one more time in 2026. Game starts at 6:35 pm ET.

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