The Ups and Downs of Toronto Blue Jays Baserunning

Baserunning, be it stealing bases or taking the extra base, is a critical element of baseball. Players who successfully steal bases, stretch singles into doubles, move from first to third on a single, and execute other baserunning plays contribute positively to a team’s offence. According to Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson), the esteemed author of The Franchise, one of the Blue Jays' management’s 2025 objectives was to improve baserunning:

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Each day, leading up to the day the Blue Jays acquired Giménez, either Schneider or GM Ross Atkins spoke about the importance of better baserunning in 2025.

Are the Toronto Blue Jays better baserunners in 2025 compared to 2024 or 2023? Let’s dive into the topic.

The first matter to cover is the metrics. FanGraphs publishes Base Running (BsR), the sum of wSB (weighted Stolen Base runs) and Baseball Savant’s XBR. A previous version of BsR used UBR (Ultimate Base Running) instead of XBR and included wGDP (weighted Ground Into Double Play runs). The current BsR model does not reflect the impact of grounding into double plays. For the record, Toronto has a 10.5% GIDP% this season, higher than MLB’s 9.5% and ninth-highest in the league (as of June 15). 

XBR is a valuable metric because it reflects the value of bases taken and chances not taken. There are 10 situations measured by Baseball Savant, which can be seen by clicking on the "Situation" drop-down menu on the leaderboard. The most frequent scenario captured by XBR is runners stretching a single into a double.

Has Toronto’s baserunning improved in 2025? Short Answer: No. Longer Answer: Nope.

Please see Table 1 below, and the highlights are as follows:

• This season, the team has a minus 3.4 BsR (3.4 baserunning runs below average), which ranks 26th as of June 15. In other words, there are just four teams that have produced less value on the basepaths.
• Regarding each component, Toronto’s -2.1 XBR slots in as 26th-best, and its -1.4 wSB is 19th-best.
• In 2024 and 2023, Toronto’s BsR ranked 28th and 27th, respectively.
• Last campaign, Toronto ranked 27th in XBR and 20th in wSB. The season before, the Blue Jays had almost reverse bad splits. Toronto’s XBR and wSB slotted in at #20 and #28, respectively. 

So, who are the Blue Jays that perform well on the basepaths and those who don’t? Please refer to Table 2. 

Concerning BsR, as evidenced by the percentile rankings, Andrés Giménez, Myles Straw and George Springer have performed very well this season. Regarding XBR, Ernie Clement has been an elite baserunner, while Daulton Varsho has been below his 2024 and 2023 standards. Varsho has missed considerable time this season due to injuries – he has just 100 plate appearances. However, I expect Varsho will return to his old form on the basepaths. Alejandro Kirk’s zero percentile BsR ranking is unsurprising given his first percentile Sprint Speed.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are interesting baserunners worthy of further examination.

Guerrero Jr.
Toronto’s $500 million player is a below-average baserunner and was particularly awful in 2023 and 2024. For his career, Guerrero Jr. has attempted 33 stolen bases and succeeded 22 times (67% SB%). His SB% translates into a career -5.4 wSB. Vlad, stop trying to steal bases, you’re below average.

Guerrero Jr. is also a poor baserunner in non-steal situations. Please take a look at Table 3. During his career, Guerrero Jr. has an XBR of -10. Although he has added 17 running runs above the average when he successfully advances, that mark is exceeded by his running runs below average when he has been called out at the base (-12) and when he has not taken the chance (-15). In other words, he often tries for an extra base when he probably shouldn’t (-12 thrown out) and does not try to advance when he should (-15 on holds). I conclude that this pattern is consistent with a player who exercises poor judgment on the basepaths.

The first scenario, stretching a single into a double, supports my conclusion. This situation accounts for half of his opportunities. Statcast estimates that a generic runner would have attempted an extra base in 32% of those opportunities, but Guerrero Jr. attempted to take an extra base in just 29%. Hence, his decision-making has not been overly aggressive (he should have made more attempts). In terms of baserunning runs, the extra bases he has taken have been negated by the ones he hasn't (+5 versus -5). Guerrero Jr.’s XBR is negative because of unsuccessful attempts (-4). Note that the sum (-4 = +5-4-5) does not add to -3 because of rounding.

Bichette
Concerning baserunning runs above average, for his career, Table 3 shows that Bichette has been average at taking extra bases. However, starting in 2023, he has been below average at taking extra bases. The more interesting development is Bichette’s decline as a base stealer. Consider Table 4.

Bichette’s best season as a base stealer was 2021. He attempted the most steals of his career, with a 96% success rate and a 4.0 wSB. That same season, Bichette’s sprint speed ranked 11th among players his age, and his sprint speed percentile ranking was 75th (among all qualified MLB position players). However, starting in 2022, we have witnessed Bichette’s decline in foot speed. In 2022, his percentile ranking slipped from 2021’s 75th to 54th. Despite the speed deterioration, he attempted to steal 21 bases, but succeeded only 13 times. Hence, Bichette’s wSB fell to -1.3. After 2022, he has not registered a positive wSB season. Other than in 2024, his SB% has not surpassed 63%. Notably, in 2023, MLB’s average SB% was 80%. After the 2021 season, Bichette has posted a below-average base-stealing record, mainly due to a decline in foot speed. It appears that his days as a valuable base stealer are in the past.

The Last Word
For the 2025 season, Toronto’s management wanted better baserunning from the team. To date, the Blue Jays' baserunning ranks in the bottom third of the league, like it did in 2023 and 2024. One reason that improvement has not occurred is that some of their better baserunners (Varsho and Giménez) have missed considerable time due to injuries. On the good news front, players such as Straw have made positive contributions on the basepaths.

Two notable players have had a negative impact on the team’s baserunning record. Guerrero Jr. continues to be below average in taking extra bases and base stealing. His judgment is poor in both elements. Bichette’s record as a base stealer has slipped since 2022, likely due in part to a sprint speed decline. Perhaps with more playing time for the better baserunners and improved judgment from Guerrero Jr., Toronto can become an average baserunning team for the remainder of the 2025 season.