What Is the Outlook for Anthony Santander in 2026?

So far this offseason, rumors have been swirling that the Toronto Blue Jays are looking to be in the mix for big bats to add to their contending lineup. Whether it be one of the very top free agents, i.e., Kyle Tucker, or one just a tier below, like Cody Bellinger, those are two outfield bats that could make a huge difference for the Jays going forward.

However, lost in all the rumor mill excitement happens to be the Blue Jays’ big offseason signing from 2024-25: Anthony Santander. It appears as though many have already written off the former All-Star outfielder from being a major contributor for the upcoming season and beyond. But can Santander reinsert himself as a key piece of the contending puzzle for the Jays in 2026?

Recall that Santander hasn’t been just a one-hit wonder during his time in the majors. Prior to joining the Jays, the 31-year-old outfielder posted bWAR values of 2.1, 3.0 and 2.9 and a wRC+ above 118 in three consecutive seasons with the Baltimore Orioles from 2022 to 2024. Last season with Toronto, his .175 average, .565 OPS, and -1.0 bWAR were among the worst of his nine-year MLB career.

The critical question is how much of his struggles can be attributed to his shoulder injury that ended up limiting him to just 54 regular season games in 2025? Remember how ineffective Bo Bichette was during his injury-riddled 2024 campaign. Guess what happened the very next season for the star shortstop? A huge bounce-back campaign, in which he reverted to his true form, leading the Blue Jays into the postseason as a result.

So, to make a real assessment of Santander, one has to give him a run to see how he performs once back to full health. The Steamer projection system at FanGraphs has moderate confidence in the 31-year-old slugger to become productive once again, as it predicts 26 home runs and 75 RBI but only a 106 wRC+ and 1.0 WAR for the upcoming season. It also has his strikeout rate reverting back closer to his 21.1% career rate at 22.7%. That would be a significant improvement upon his troublesome 27.6% mark in his first season with the Jays.

Blue Jays fans should be optimistic as well since Santander still managed to maintain an average exit velocity around 89.6 mph last season, which is close to his career average of 90.0 mph. He also produced a hard-hit rate of 41%. What stood out was his alarming barrel rate of just 4.5%, which was almost a full five percentage points below his career average. His shoulder issue was likely the main cause behind that, so his  egregious barrel rate should be easily rectified once he has his clean bill of health.

As a result, the Jays might not really need the big addition of a Tucker or even a Bellinger this offseason. Santander reverting to the Santander of old might be enough of an offensive boost to the lineup, since Toronto never really saw the best of him in 2025. Therefore, things can only look up from here for Santander and the Jays as they look to get better and better for the upcoming season.