Blue Jays 2025 Top 20 Prospect Rankings: No. 4, Orelvis Martinez

#4: Orelvis Martinez, 2B/3B, 23, Toronto Blue Jays/Buffalo Bisons
The Toronto Blue Jays signed Martinez in July of 2018 out of the Dominican Republic. Billed as one of the top international free agents that cycle, he signed for $3.5M, with the intrigue and hype starting shortly after he entered the organization. He would begin his pro career in rookie ball in the Gulf Coast league. He hit .275 with seven home runs to help build the hype. A year break in the minor leagues for COVID-19 fueled the excitement for Martinez as a prospect. In 2021, he would smash Low-A ball with a slash line of .279/.369/.572. As a 19-year-old, he also launched 19 home runs, showing the mammoth power potential he has always displayed. He finished 2021 adding nine home runs at High-A Vancouver, but it would come with a low batting average, prolonging a backward trend in the star potential path he was on. 2022 and 2023 were a long road to fixing a swing-happy nature that led to some struggles at Double-A New Hampshire. Despite the surface struggles, he would still put up a huge power display, crushing 47 home runs across Double-A over the season and a half. Ultimately, he would get promoted to Triple-A Buffalo, where his newfound swing decisions propelled him to a 114 wRC+ to close 2023 and a 120 wRC+ in 2024. 

What To Like
There are many things to like on the surface of Martinez’s profile. The standout production on the field, which has star potential, is his power. He has hit 110 home runs in his minor league career, coming across 455 games. This includes three seasons of 28 or more home runs, and last year would have been his 4th straight if it was not for the failed PED test in the major leagues. Do not be fooled by the failed drug test either. Power has always been a part of his profile and will remain. In Triple-A last season, he was in the 98th percentile in max exit velocity (115.2 MPH) and 96th percentile in 90th percentile exit velocity (107.2 MPH). His hard-hit rate (87th percentile), xwOBA (93rd percentile), xwOBAcon (94th percentile), and xSLG (97th percentile) were all at the top of Triple-A as well. 

In the graphic from Donald Stricklin above, we can also see that Martinez does a magnificent job of hitting the ball in the air and at optimal launch angles. From inside the strike zone on the inner third, to the top of the zone, to the outer third of the zone, and even out of the zone everywhere, he hits the ball in the air. Combine the high rate of hitting the ball hard at top-end exit velocities with optimal launch angles, and you have a bat that will launch home runs with the best major league hitters. 

What is also to like about Martinez is his excellent bat speed. During his major league debut, he generated a bat speed of 76.2 MPH in a very small sample size. This bat speed would have ranked in the top 10 in the major leagues, right behind some of the game’s best hitters like Julio Rodriguez, Shohei Ohtani, and Gunnar Henderson. It would have ranked just ahead of players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto. 

When you combine Martinez’s ability to hit the ball hard, often, and at great launch angles, you get a profile that should excel in the major leagues, especially at the Toronto Blue Jays home stadium of the Rogers Centre. As seen in the image below, Martinez does an excellent job doing damage on all types of pitches and in all parts of the strike zone. When combining this type of damage with a pull-happy approach (47.1%) and frequent balls in the air (66.2%), Martinez should see a high increase in home run numbers at the Rogers Centre. Below, you can see where approximately 29 of his batted balls from 2024 in Triple-A would have been home runs at the Rogers Centre. That could be a big boost for a Blue Jays offense that has routinely lacked power in recent years. 

What Needs Work
Martinez needs to work on his contact ability. Specifically, his whiff rate was 33.7% in Triple-A last season. This swing and miss has been prevalent most seasons in the upper minor leagues for him. He has run contact rates of 66.3% (Triple-A), 65.2% (Triple-A), 69.4% (Double-A), and 67.2% (Double-A). He must continue making better swing decisions to reduce the swing and miss, as seen in his 29.5% chase rate at Triple-A in 2024. He needs to bring that number down, resulting in more damage done with the bat. He still had a solid in-zone contact rate of 80.2% last season and 82.9% in 2023, both at Triple-A. 

Looking at specific pitches, it is also clear Martinez needs to work on hitting and breaking balls. It is by far his worst pitch against them, and he doesn't do well overall versus them. He hit just .219/.272/.439 against all types of breaking balls at Triple-A in 2024. He had six home runs and nine barrels, but the whiff rate was 45%. It is not all bad, and these numbers can be overcome, but if he wants to be a great hitter, he has to make more contact and better contact versus breaking balls. Players like Juan Soto, Michael Toglia, Mark Vientos, and Corbin Carroll also struggled against breaking balls in 2024. Many other big names also had whiff rates above 40%, so it isn't the end of the world. The good thing is Martinez smashes fastballs, hitting .344/.430/.656 against 4-seam fastballs, sinkers, and cutters. 

The most glaring part of Martinez's game that needs work might be his defense. He has roamed from shortstop to third base, to second base, and back to third base over the years. The issue usually is a unique throwing motion that isn't very conducive to making consistently good throws to first base. He has a very strong arm, but he needs to iron out the consistency to get everyday looks in the field. 

What is Next
Martinez is working hard this spring training to make the big league team start the 2025 baseball season. He is making a good showing by hitting 3-10, including a home run. He continues to work on lowering his chase rate and making better swing decisions. If he doesn't make it to the big league club to start the season, he will begin the year at Triple-A Buffalo again. He must continue to show good power and improved plate discipline to go with better swing decisions. He could hit his way into a major league role by May, given the state of the Blue Jays’ lack of offensive power over much of their projected big league lineup. Whether with the major league club or starting in Buffalo, expect phenomenal power numbers to go with an improving all-around game. 

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