Alan Roden Is A Contact Machine, How Will That Skill Play In Toronto?

For fans upset when the Blue Jays traded the late blooming infielder Spencer Horwitz last month, the Blue Jays have a partial clone waiting in the minor leagues. Horwitz was second on the team among regular starters in wRC+, coming in at 127. Those are some big shoes to fill figuratively, but the Blue Jays might have a minor leaguer who can step into the lineup and do just that, Alan Roden.

The Numbers
Alan Roden was drafted in the third round of the 2022 MLB Draft by the Toronto Blue Jays and has been working his way up the minor league ladder ever since. In his first full professional season in 2023, he slashed .317/.430/.459. He would end the year with an .890 OPS and a wRC+ of 149 across High-A and Double-A. The contact and on-base skills were evident, as he walked more times than he struck out. The flaw in his hitter profile was the lack of power, with only ten home runs between both levels.

Roden started taking big leaps by making a few changes during the 2024 season as he looked to add the much-needed power to his profile. The results were positive; he smashed 16 home runs over 125 games between Double-A and Triple-A. The improvements took hold after a rough first 26-game stretch following his promotion to Triple-A. In his final 45 games of the season, he would hit .377/.457/.623, with a 1.081 OPS, seven home runs, and 23 extra-base hits, resulting in a wRC+ of 180. He was one of the hottest and best hitters in Triple-A to close out the 2024 season.

The Advanced Numbers
Let's look at the advanced numbers, which give Roden a chance to be an impactful bat when he gets to the major leagues. The biggest "wow" factor and reason for taking notice of Roden's potential is his ability to hit the baseball. At Triple-A in 2024, he had an in-zone contact rate of 93%. This means that, of all the pitches he swung at in the strike zone, he made contact 93% of the time. To put this in an MLB context, only three qualified hitters had a better in-zone contact rate in 2024. If he can carry this level of contact ability into the major leagues, there won't be glaring strikeout concerns for him like many prospects seem to have in the jump to the majors.

Other prospects that profiled similarly to Roden at Triple-A are Spencer Horwitz, Leo Jimenez, and Jose Miranda. Roden differs from those first two names in his pulled flyball rate, 67th percentile. He is much closer to a left-handed version of Jose Miranda in many regards, and that is where I think his major league outcome will settle in, somewhere between Jose Miranda and Spencer Horwitz. The healthy version of Miranda last season had an .888 OPS up until July 10th before another injury slowed him down as his production dropped the rest of the season; Miranda has battled injuries frequently in his young career. Roden possesses similar skills that have fueled a healthy Miranda and Horwitz in putting up their above-average seasons as MLB hitters. All three at Triple-A had high in-zone contact rates (~90+%), low strikeout rates (~15%), similar exit velocities (88-89 MPH), and Roden fits between Horwitz and Miranda on his walk rate (12%). 

Going beyond the contact ability and potential outcomes for Roden, he is a hitter who can occasionally expand the zone. His chase rate at Triple-A was near average at the 56th percentile. Even though he can expand the strike zone, he doesn't strike out a lot, only striking out 14.2% of the time over the entire 2024 season. The chase rate and damage done per batted ball event is where he differed from Horwitz's Triple-A profile. On average, Horwitz chased less and did more damage when he made contact. That is what Roden will need to keep working on, and hopefully, the changes he made will continue to fuel his hot hitting as we kick off a new Spring Training.

2025 and Beyond
As the roster currently sits, Roden has a decent shot at early playing time for the 2025 season. However, the Blue Jays are not done adding to the roster, so the most likely outcome is he starts at Triple-A for a month or two, similar to Horwitz in 2024. When he comes to the big leagues, he will get playing time as either a right fielder or DH. 2026 should be the banner year for him, as George Springer will be in the last year of his contract and has only played in an average of 128 games over the last four seasons. As Springer gets more DH at-bats, Roden will transition into more playing time in the field. Spring Training should give us a good look at where the Blue Jays view him this year, even though his bat will play when he gets his chance. 

Interested in learning more about the Toronto Blue Jays' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!