Tomorrow I’ll Be Perfect… Dylan Cease Edition

[Mike LeSage]

Any other day, the story would be about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. breaking his home run drought and the Jays offense breaking open for 10 runs. Just the fifth time this season they’ve notched double digits and the first time since May 9. Kazuma Okamoto’s grand slam, George Springer going back-to-back with Vladdy (just the second time the Jays have done that all season), the power of the stuffed dragon, Daulton Varsho putting his body on the line in center. All of that ended up being secondary; it was the Dylan Cease show in San Francisco.

Cease was perfect through four innings, striking out six to that point before issuing a walk to Willy Adames with two outs in the fifth. A swinging strikeout of the next batter, Bryce Eldridge, would end the inning and keep the no-hit bid alive. The sixth inning started with a leadoff walk, followed by another pair of Ks and an easy groundout. The seventh inning looks like a smooth one on paper, but Jung Hoo Lee’s nine-pitch AB was a grind ending in a flyout, and Ernie Clement had to make a nifty play on the final out of the inning to keep the Giants hitless. Eldridge led off the eighth and hit a ball to deep center field. The ball had an xBA of .770, but xBA doesn’t account for Varsho being an absolute maniac. With a lot of fielders, you might think they gave it a little extra to preserve the chance of a no-hitter. Varsho, I think, makes this play even if the Jays are down 10 runs. Crashing into the wall motivates him. It certainly seemed to motivate Cease too, who reached back to strike out the next two batters and put him three outs away from history. On the third pitch to the leadoff batter, Cease’s 118th of the day, Heliot Ramos drove a sinker into center to break up the no-hitter. Ramos’ hit had an xBA of .880, the highest of any Giant on the day, so this wasn’t a case of bad luck necessarily, just bad timing. Cease would be lifted from the game and would exit to a standing ovation. Tyler Rodgers finished it off with four pitches, and that was that. Cease’s final line: 8 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 11 K.

Cease’s game score of 88 is the best of any Jays starter this season, eclipsing his own previous high-water mark of 79 just last week against Seattle. In fact, Cease has six of the top 10 starts by game score for Toronto this season. This outing also marks the 10th time this season that Cease has thrown 100 or more pitches, with 118 setting a new career high.

Dave Stieb is, of course, the first Blue Jay we think of when we talk about coming close to a no-hitter. Stieb, famously, took three no-hit bids to within an out of immortality before finally getting it done on Sept 2, 1990. He remains the only Blue Jay to ever achieve the feat. Toronto has the second longest active no-hitter drought, with only the Cleveland Guardians waiting longer (Len Barker in 1981). Brandon Morrow in 2010 came within an out of the no-no and struck out 17 on his way in one of the most impressive starts in Blue Jays history. Morrow’s game score of 100 is the Jays’ all-time best. Bowden Francis went into the ninth inning twice in 2024 before surrendering his first hit to the leadoff batter in both games. Marco Estrada took a perfect game into the eighth inning in 2015 (game score of 90), but his pitch count (129) and the game condition (Jays would win in the 12th inning) were against him. Then, of course, there was Roy Halladay’s second ever start. On Sept 27, 1998, Doc took a no-hitter into the ninth inning before losing it and the shutout (he still got the complete game) on a solo home run to Bobby Higginson. Doc’s game score of 89 was just one point better than Cease’s yesterday. Halladay would memorably go on to record a no-hitter (and a perfect game) with Philadelphia.  

Cease, in the reverse of Halladay, already has a no-hitter on his resume, having achieved it with the San Diego Padres in 2024. Wednesday marked the third time Cease has entered the ninth inning with no hits, having done it with the White Sox as well. That no-hit attempt was broken up by Luis Arraez, who was standing in the on-deck circle for the Giants yesterday – a fact that was certainly on Cease's mind. After the game, when asked if this start would give him a leg up on securing the starting role in the upcoming All-Star Game, Cease deflected and suggested that Cam Schlittler would be the likely starter. Yet, with John Schneider getting the final call, there may be a case for Cease to join Stieb and Halladay as the only previous Midsummer Classic starters with Toronto.

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