Article: It's Not Over Yet

[Leo Morgenstern]

How often has the visiting team won the first two games of a best-of-seven postseason series? Thanks to Sportsnet's Arden Zwelling, I can tell you: 28 times. 

How often has that team with a 2-0 lead gone on to win the series? Thanks again to Zwelling's research, I can disappoint you with the answer: 25 times. 

So, history isn't on the Blue Jays' side. Even if their chances of winning each game going forward were exactly 50%, their odds of winning the series would be less than 20%. And now Seattle has home-field advantage. They also have the pitching advantage, with George Kirby taking on Shane Bieber tonight and Luis Castillo facing Max Scherzer on Wednesday. Bryan Woo is still a possibility for a potential Game 5.

On top of that, Seattle has stolen Toronto's momentum. That offense that terrorized the Yankees in the ALDS vanished when the Mariners came to town.

Now, the Blue Jays need to take two of three at T-Mobile Park to stay alive. Ideally, they'll win all three and come back home with the upper hand. It seems like a daunting task, and it is, but it's hardly impossible. Need some reassurance? Just look at the most recent five games the Blue Jays played against the Mariners during the regular season. 

The Jays were in a funk when they last visited Seattle this past May. They had gone 6-12 over the previous three weeks, dating back to their first matchup with the Mariners at the Rogers Centre. 

When the M's came to town in April, the Blue Jays won the first game 3-1 but lost the next two 4-8 and 3-8. Ignore the first game of the series and note that after that, the Jays lost two games in a row to the Mariners at home by a total of nine runs. Sound familiar? It should, because that's exactly what just happened. 

Now, flash forward to May. At that time, the Blue Jays were in a much worse rut than they find themselves in right now. Back then, we were all wondering if the Jays were ever going to score some runs (oh, how naive we were).

So, what happened in that three-game set in the Emerald City? The Blue Jays came alive. They swept the series, winning 6-3, 6-3, and 9-1. It marked the first time all year they scored five or more runs in three straight games. It felt like a turning point in the season. In hindsight, it most definitely was.

The Blue Jays we're watching right now aren't the same as the team that swept Seattle in May. They don't have Bo Bichette (a key player in that series), but they do have a healthy Andrés Giménez and Anthony Santander, and a reinvigorated Davis Schneider. More importantly, their pitching staff is in much better shape, thanks to a healthy Max Scherzer, a thrice-promoted Trey Yesavage, and the trade deadline acquisitions of Shane Bieber, Louis Varland, and Seranthony Domínguez. 

Of course, the Mariners are better now too. They have a Josh Naylor and a Eugenio Suárez that they didn't have before, and with a healthier rotation, they won't have to start Logan Evans this time around. Still, that only means we're in for a better fight from both sides. 

The Blue Jays are in a tough spot. I can't deny that. But like Nathan Lukes said after Game 2, they have been in positions like this before. That doesn't mean they will pull through, but it proves they can, just like those other three out of 28 teams that lost the first two games of a best-of-seven at home and still found a way to win the series. We all know it ain't over 'til it's over, and this one certainly isn't over yet.

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[Spanky__99]

A decade ago the Jays were down 0-2 in a best of 5 against the Rangers, and we all know how that ended up, it's certainly not over yet, a daunting hill to climb no doubt, but do-able.