Owen Hill

Trey YesavageArjun NimmalaOrelvis MartinezRicky TiedemannJake BlossKhal StephenJosh KasevichCharles McAdooAlan RodenAdam MackoKendry RojasFernando PerezEnmanuel BonillaLanden MaroudisJohnny KingWill WagnerBrandon BarrieraJuaron Watts-BrownAdrian PintoJonatan Clase

I just want to say... I love how badly people want to find space in the lineup for Alan Roden

The Blue Jays finally got their guy, and while the team’s outfield defence will fall from the elite status we’ve gotten used to, he’ll fill a hole in the middle of the lineup. Before we all salivate over how much more dangerous the addition of Anthony Santander makes the BlueJays lineup, let's consider how John Schneider and the Jays are going to get him into it. Below is the team’s projected depth chart, as posted by FanGraphs’ Jason Martinez on Bluesky immediately after Santander’s deal was announced. As you can, see, Santander is projected to slot in as the everyday left fielder, after primarily playing right field across eight seasons with the Orioles. This may require some adjustment, but there’s not much concern that he’ll lose what little defensive value he brings, because switching corners is far easier than learning a completely new position. Left field is a less valuable defensive position than right, and is likely where Santander would have spent his time in recent years if it weren't for the enormous amount of ground to cover in left field at Camden Yards thanks to the Great Wall of Baltimore. With George Springer expected to keep holding down right field, Santander will slide over to left, although he represents a stark departure from the left fielders to whom the Jays have given playing time over the last couple of seasons. From 2023 to 2024, Statcast’s Fielding Runs Value credited Blue Jays left fielders with saving 11 runs, tied with the Cleveland Guardians for the best in baseball. Only four other teams produced a positive number. Over the same timeframe, Santander has run an FRV of -6. Daulton Varsho got the bulk of the innings in left field, but once he returns from shoulder surgery, he'll sepnd 2025 as the primary center fielder. Varsho primarily played alongside Kevin Kiermaier and George Springer, a combination of three center fielders whose ridiculous 48 FRV made Toronto easily the best defensive outfield in baseball. The Jays have since moved on from Kiermaier, but the core of Varsho and Springer will remain a strong defensive tandem in center and right, with guys like Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase, and the newly acquired Myles Straw able to fill in at any of the three outfield positions. Santander hasn’t put up a positive defensive season since 2020 (the only one of his career) and heading into his age 30 season, he certainly isn’t going to start now. This is the end of the elite defensive outfield play that Blue Jays fans have become accustomed to, but that’s obviously a sacrifice Ross Atkins and the front office are willing to make in order to get Santander’s bat in the lineup. Now for the fun part: Santander can absolutely mash, and it would not be a stretch to call him the perfect fit behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. A switch hitter, Santander is coming off of his first All-Star selection and a season in which he crushed 44 homers en route to a 129 wRC+. He’s capable of doing damage any time he steps in the box thanks to a profile that emphasizes pull-side fly balls. Fangraphs projected lineup has Santander bumping Guerrero up to the two spot in the lineup and Bo Bichette down to cleanup. Personally, I love the idea of getting my best hitter more at-bats, but I also wouldn’t be upset if Vlad continued to insist on hitting third and Bo slid back into the two-hole. Either way, for the first time since 2022, the Blue Jays have a player not named Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who is capable of a 25-homer season. We can debate whether or not lineup protection matters, but the fact is, the lack of production in the cleanup spot behind Vlad has been a massive weakness in the Blue Jays’ lineup. Over the past two seasons, the Blue Jays had a 103 wRC+ out of the cleanup spot, which ranked 18th in baseball. They were dead last with 31 homers. Steamer projects Santander to hit 33 homers in 2025 alone. Santander is also a switch-hitter, and essentially platoon proof. In 2024 he rocked an wRC+ above 120 as both a righty and a lefty, and his career numbers are nearly even. That offensive consistency against different pitcher profiles will be massive in the middle of a lineup that has been crying out for consistency. Giving Santander everyday reps in the outfield is going to have a ‘rob Peter to pay Paul’ effect. The Jays have taken away from their elite defensive outfield, a spot of serious strength over the last couple of years, to address a serious weakness: the lack of power and an offensive threat to hit behind Guerrero. One can only hope that Ross Atkins and the front office are on the verge of finally striking the perfect balance between a defensive and offensive lineup. View full article

In the final installment of our prediction series, the rotation is completely unqualified, and the team will win, you know, a certain number of games. Blue Jays fans! The time has finally come to stop reflecting on the disappointment that was 2024 and to turn the page (or throw the old calendar in the trash and replace it with a new one). Let's start looking ahead to what 2025 has in store for our Blue Jays. Will it be a year of making deals with long-time friends, fresh faces carving out their space on the team, and exceeding expectations? Or will the sequel be worse than the original? Only time will tell, but as 2025 is such a pivotal year for the Blue Jays — imminent free agents, young players stepping into bigger roles, and veterans looking to play key roles — I figured I’d take a stab at coming up with some bold predictions for what lies ahead in the next calendar year. This is the third of a four-part series that will run all week. You can read part one here, part two here, and, you guessed it, part three here. Let's finish strong. 7. The Blue Jays have zero qualified starters with an ERA under 4.00 The starting rotation has been a noted strength of the Blue Jays for the last three seasons, accumulating over 36 fWAR since 2022, which is good for ninth in baseball. And with the rotation relatively unchanged (aside from the loss of Yusei Kikuchi), the talk around the Jays seems to involve a lot of trust that this type of performance can be expected again in 2025. But it’s a dirty little secret that if you check out the FanGraphs Depth Chart projections, the Jays are currently in line to finish 2025 with just 10.4 fWAR from their starting pitchers. That would rank 23rd in baseball (also known as eighth-to-last). The last three seasons have seen an impressive run of health from established veterans, which has been a big part of the rotation's success. The Jays haven't needed to dip very far into their depth to make up for missed innings by guys like Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, and José Berríos. That kind of good fortune tends not to last forever. Gausman had a health scare during spring training in 2024, and though he was never quite able to get back to the elite stuff he had from 2021 to 2023, he was able to battle his way through the season and put up a respectable 3.83 ERA over 181 innings. However, the process was not nearly as dominant as we’d come to expect over his previous two seasons as a Blue Jay. First and most importantly, he’s lost more than a tick of velocity on his four-seam fastball since 2022. From 2023 to 2024, Statcast saw his fastball run value drop from the 95th percentile all the way to the 38th. Gausman also went from a strikeout percentage of 31.1% in 2023 to 21.4% in 2024, an extremely steep drop-off. Neither the FanGraphs Depth Charts nor I expect Gausman to take step back even further this year, and Steamer naturally projects Gausman him to regress back to his old level of performance, improving his strikeout rate and ERA. But it's not usually safe to place a bet on a 34-year-old who’s pitched 732 2/3 innings over the last four years and has already shown major signs of decline. Just a little bit of bad luck or, God forbid, some injury struggles, and Gausman could easily see himself with an ERA above 4.00 this season. As you may have seen in the table above, Kevin Gausman is the only Blue Jay starter projected to finish with an ERA under 4.00, and I hate to admit how confident I am in my case for him to be above that. José Berríos is expected to lead this rotation alongside Gausman, and he has also built up one of the more reliable track records among starting pitchers. He’s thrown at least 189 2/3 innings in five out of the last seven seasons, just missing out during the short 2020 season and the peculiar 2022 in which he was never able to find his way. Berríos outperforms his xERA like clockwork, but in 2024, he didn’t miss bats like he had in previous seasons. His arm has been through a lot, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him struggle to maintain the quality stuff that he needs to avoid getting hit hard. I find it unlikely Berríos has another season that is reminiscent of his dismal 2022, but I think the case for a perfectly fine, low-fours ERA is the most likely scenario. Chris Bassitt is the final veteran on the staff, and you’d be hard pressed to find a better word to describe him than ‘veteran.’ Another pitcher who’s been the model of consistency for years, Bassitt has seen his numbers steadily decline since he put up a 2.29 ERA for the Oakland A’s in 2020. In 2024, he surpassed 4.00 for the first time in his career (minus a 2016 campaign where he pitched just 28 innings across five starts). Heading into his age-36 season, after three straight seasons with more than 170 innings, I think Chris Bassitt is a safe bet for another slight increase in ERA in 2025. Here’s where it gets a little bit weird. Not only did Bowden Francis lose his spot in the rotation in April of last year, he lost his spot in the big leagues. But after spending some time at triple-A Buffalo, developing a vicious splitter, and drastically reducing his USA of a mediocre breaking pitch, Francis finished 2024 incredibly well, although there are some serious questions about whether or not the way he did it is going to be sustainable over a full season. Francis allowed just 24 hits and an incredibly low .125 BABIP across nine starts to finish the season. Combining this with his below-average chase and whiff percentages definitely makes him a candidate for some serious regression to the mean, and a low-fours ERA is absolutely a reasonable expectation for Francis in 2024. The fifth starter spot is up for grabs between guys like Yariel Rodríguez, Jake Bloss, and any starter signed between now and spring training (Jose Quintana, Nick Pivetta, and Lance Lynn are on my radar). There’s not a whole lot of track record with either of these guys, but the expectation would not be for them to come out and dominate in 2025. To tie a bow on this prediction, I think the case for the Jays having two or three starters with an below 4.00 is just as plausible as the one for them to have none, and predicting ERAs in the low four is NOT predicting horrendous seasons. 8. The Blue Jays finish with OVER 76.5 wins. Many people will tell you that the journey is more important than the destination, but many other people will tell you that they don’t ask how, they ask how many. That’s why I saved the most important prediction for last, and I will use my seven previous predictions to make the case for the Blue Jays winning at least 77 games. First of all, in the three Wild Card era, the lowest number of wins to get into the playoffs is shared by the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins at 84. So any team set on competing, as the Blue Jays are, builds the team with the goal of reaching at MINIMUM 84 wins. The Jays could fall seven wins short of that target and still make my prediction a winner. But here’s the baseball case for why I think the Jays are a lock to win at least 77 games: I lined out in previous predictions why Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are more than likely to play out the whole season with the Jays, but just for a quick recap, I find it hard to see a world where this team, in what is likely the last year of this contention window, punts at the trade deadline and gives up on the opportunity to retain these players in favour of a rebuild. We’ve seen in many seasons (other than 2024) prove just how effective this duo can be, and if Bo Bichette can get back to form, the foundations of a strong offence are going to be playing shortstop and first base every day. Anotherunderrated pick for a big offensive year is Alejandro Kirk. Since 2022, Blue Jays catchers have the third-best wRC+ among catching corps in baseball. Kirk’s 2022 season weighs heavily on that stat, and if he can rediscover some of that prowess at the plate, similar to the end of last year, he could be one of the important middle-of-the-order bats that this lineup needs. Many are concerned about the Spencer Horwitz-shaped hole that’s been left in this lineup since the Andrés Giménez trade, but I’m not. I think Alan Roden is primed to bring his contact-first profile and impressive minor league numbers to the big leagues, if not out of spring training, early in the season. It might not be fair to dream on guys who’ve never had a plate appearance in the big leagues, and it’s always dangerous to ask them to play big roles on contending teams, but the Jays are looking to add at least 10 wins to their previous year’s total, and if it’s going to happen, they’re going to need some good stories from guys like Roden. The last position player I want to touch on is the newly-acquired Giménez. The premium defence he’ll bring at second base has been widely covered, but I’m just as excited for how he can help the offence score runs. Anything Giménez brings with the bat will be gravy, but I think the way he runs the bases will have a dynamic effect on the Jays' attack. Giménez is a legit stolen base threat, a piece that the Jays have been lacking for a long time, and his effectiveness on the base paths will help to make up for some of the power the roster is lacking at this point. As far as pitching, we’ve already seen Ross Atkins address the league-worst bullpen in a big way, adding two arms that figure to be the eighth and ninth-inning guys in Yimi García and Jeff Hoffman, as well as a couple more that will factor into the middle innings, in Nick Sandlin and Josh Walker. Hoffman and García are established relievers experienced in getting the biggest outs of baseball games; just what the doctor ordered. Now, I’m sure you read part one of this article and saw that I’m not overly high on any of the starting pitching options, but before you call me a hypocrite, hear me out. I was able to uncover five playoff teams since 1997 that finished a season without a pitcher who started more than 16 games and carried an sub-four ERA. This included the 1997 New York Yankees, who won 101 games. Remember, it’s not unprecedented for good teams to have starting rotations without a certified ace, and for starting pitchers, it’s more than possible to be valuable and productive without a great ERA. I think this team has much higher aspirations than 76 wins, and I’m more than confident enough in the players I outlined throughout this series to believe that them winning more than that is much likelier than them winning less. View full article

Next up in our prediction series, the basestealing prowess of Andrés Giménez and the closer over Yimi García's shoulder. Blue Jays fans! The time has finally come to stop reflecting on the disappointment that was 2024 and to turn the page (or throw the old calendar in the trash and replace it with a new one). Let's start looking ahead to what 2025 has in store for our Blue Jays. Will it be a year of making deals with long-time friends, fresh faces carving out their space on the team, and exceeding expectations? Or will the sequel be worse than the original? Only time will tell, but as 2025 is such a pivotal year for the Blue Jays — imminent free agents, young players stepping into bigger roles, and veterans looking to play key roles — I figured I’d take a stab at coming up with some bold predictions for what lies ahead in the next calendar year. This is the third of a four-part series that will run all week. You can read part one here and part two here. Let's keep it going. 5. Andrés Giménez swipes 30 bases. “But Owen, 30 stolen bases isn’t even that many! I thought these were supposed to be BOLD predictions!” Well reader, that statement would be completely correct! While stealing 30 bags in a season is nothing to sneeze at, it’s not by any means a feat that gets remembered for generations. Since 2014, there have been 115 total 30-steal seasons. For reference, there have nearly 200 more 30-homer seasons over the same timeframe (thanks, Stathead). So what’s so bold about predicting 30 steals for Giménez? The last time a Blue Jay stole 30 bases was in 2014, when José Reyes stole exactly 30. Since then it has been nine full seasons (nobody in stole 30 in 2020) in which the Jays have not had a player steal 30 bases. Only two teams in baseball, the Chicago White Sox and the San Francisco Giants are in the midst of longer droughts. But is stealing bases really that important? I’m glad you asked! Since Major League Baseball made the bases larger in 2023, 22 of 60 team seasons (30 teams x 2 seasons) have resulted in at least 750 runs scored. In 18 of those 22 seasons, that team stole at least 100 bases. A two-year sample size is hardly enough to call it a trend, but nearly 82% of teams that scored at a rate well above the average team are also placing an emphasis on the stolen base. The Blue Jays have entered spring training the last couple of seasons saying that they were going to look to find ways to be more aggressive on the bases, but haven’t reached the 100 stolen bases since 2013 (112), although they did get close in 2023 (99). The question marks on the offensive side of the ball are very apparent, and the team is starving for power hitters, but with serious questions about the budget to spend on free agents, and a very lackluster offseason so far, stealing more bases could be a way for the Jays to improve their offensive production. By bringing in Giménez, who has swiped exactly 30 in each of the last two seasons, the Jays will almost certainly improve on their stolen base total from a year ago. If the Jays place as much of an emphasis on baserunning and stealing as I think they should, Giménez should be a lock to steal 30 bases. And that’s a good thing! The stolen base is one of the more entertaining plays in the game and it leads directly to runs! 6. Yimi García does NOT lead the Blue Jays in saves. [Editor's Note: Owen wrote and filed this prediction mere hours before the Blue Jays signed Jeff Hoffman to be their new closer on Saturday night. It's no longer a particularly bold prediction, but on the bright side, Owen may actually be capable of seeing the future.] It’s always tough to be positive about one of the two bullpens in baseball worth negative fWAR in 2024, so bear with me here. Among all of the things that led to the Blue Jays being the seventh-worst team in baseball in 2024, the league-worst bullpen was certainly one of the more concerning pieces of the puzzle. In their dedication to putting a winning product on the field, Ross Atkins and the Jays simply can’t afford to head into 2025 with their bullpen looking anything like it looked at the end of 2024. Seven different Blue Jays combined for just 36 saves last year, with Chad Green picking up the bulk of them with 17. While Green’s results weren’t bad, he outperformed his expected stats by a fair bit and struggled towards the end of the season. He’s much better suited for a seventh-inning setup role than the closer spot. With the departure of longtime closer Jordan Romano (who hardly factored in last season due to injury), John Schneider and Pete Walker will need a permanent solution at closer if the bullpen is going to be a strength. To the credit of the front office, the team has made moves made to address the bullpen. Right-handed reliever Nick Sandlin was acquired for Spencer Horwitz as part of the Giménez trade, and even though you may have to squint a little bit to see it, he might have the stuff to get some important outs in the middle innings. I wrote up my thoughts on Sandlin in my breakdown of the trade. The Jays have also signed Josh Walker, a left-handed reliever with limited big-league experience but impressive peripherals at Triple A. In a victory for nominative determinism, Walker rarely hit the strike zone and walked an alarming 13.4% of the batters he faced. However, he allowed a minuscule 26.7% hard-hit rate while running an extremely high 34.7% whiff rate. If he can figure out some semblance of command, he's more than a lottery ticket. But by far the highest profile addition to the bullpen so far this winter has been the return of old friend Yimi García, who inked a two-year deal in December after spending the second half of the season with the Seattle Mariners. García was nothing but great in his time with Jays, especially in the first half of last year. However, he battled injuries and struggled to a 6.00 ERA across nine innings in 10 appearances with the Mariners. When García is feeling good, there aren't many pitchers with a more electric fastball-slider combo, and there’s not a whole lot of concern that he won't return to that form to start the 2025 season. It’s important to note that he’ll turn 35 in August and he has a lot of miles on his arm, so I’ll be interested to see how he holds up as the season goes on. Consensus at this point is that García will slot into that closer role, but to me, he’s clearly at his best when he can be used in a stopper’role. He’s the guy I want coming out of the pen against the heart of the order in the seventh or eighth inning. So here’s where the prediction comes in: it might be wishful thinking, but I think the Blue Jays think about García in a similar way that I do and intend to either find another reliever with big stuff via trade, free agency, or internal options. There are still a bunch of relievers with closer experience available on the free agent market: Kenley Jansen, Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, David Robertson, and Carlos Estévez, to name a few. Guys like Ryan Helsley and Camilo Doval have had trade rumours swirling around them all winter. I have to admit that I tried pretty hard to find something I really liked about an internal option, but definitely couldn’t find anyone I would prefer to close over García. If Erik Swanson, Chad Green, Zach Pop, or Brendan Little wanted to show up to spring training and run away with the closing job, I’d throw a party, but I expect if I’m going to hit on the bet that García doesn’t lead the team in saves, I suspect it’ll end up being because an external option is added to the mix. View full article

On Monday, we made predictions about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk. Today we're talking Bo Bichette, Joey Loperfido, and Alan Roden. Blue Jays fans! The time has finally come to stop reflecting on the disappointment that was 2024 and to turn the page (or throw the old calendar in the trash and replace it with a new one). Let's start looking ahead to what 2025 has in store for our Blue Jays. Will it be a year of making deals with long-time friends, fresh faces carving out their space on the team, and exceeding expectations? Or will the sequel be worse than the original? Only time will tell, but as 2025 is such a pivotal year for the Blue Jays — imminent free agents, young players stepping into bigger roles, and veterans looking to play key roles — I figured I’d take a stab at coming up with some bold predictions for what lies ahead in the next calendar year. This is the second part of a four-part series that will run all week. You can read part one here. Let's keep it going. 3. Bo Bichette finishes the 2025 season with the Blue Jays. Predicting the future of pending free agents is always difficult, because the circumstances surrounding both the player and their potential suitors is constantly changing up until the moment a contract is signed. In Bo Bichette’s case, I think it’s as complex as any free agent in recent years. Here's a list of seven ways that you could finish a sentence that starts with, "Bo Bichette..." and still be telling the truth: ...has been the subject of rumours saying he’d welcome a trade away from Toronto. ...was also quoted just months ago saying his goal is to stay with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and win a World Series in Toronto. ...will be eligible for free agency at just 27 years old. ...isn't an absurd comp for Willy Adames, who is three years older and just signed seven-year, $182-million deal with the Giants. ...has been an elite offensive shortstop in five of his six seasons. ...is coming off of the only poor season of his career (but it was really poor). ...is likely not going to be able to stick at shortstop very deep into his next contract. WOOF, that’s a lot to consider. Luckily for Bo and the Blue Jays, there’s no need for an immediate solution. Also working in the favour of both parties: Bichette’s success directly leads to the Blue Jays’ success. This is why I think Bichette is going to survive at least one more transaction window as a Blue Jay. He will enter spring training of his walk year healthy and looking to prove he’s same guy was in his first five seasons. The Blue Jays will enter spring training looking to add between 14 and 18 wins to their 2024 total of (yikes) 74. The success of one directly depends on the success of the other. The way the roster is currently constructed, if the Jays are going to compete, they need a productive, healthy Bichette. A productive, healthy Bichette result in wins, and if the team is winning, there’s no WAY it can trade its star shortstop even if he’s on an expiring contract. In-fact, if the team shows even the slightest amount of competence, I have no doubt that Ross Atkins, knowing this is probably his last chance to build a team in Toronto, will be uber-aggressive to supplement the roster via trade mid-season. Now, there’s another possible outcome that’s definitely a lot less fun: If Bo Bichette puts up even just a mediocre season, I have a hard time seeing the Jays' being good enough to compete, even for a wildcard spot. Is there a chance that a scenario like this leads to roster Armageddon and everyone with less than three years of control and a pulse gets traded? Absolutely. But if Bichette fails to recoup his value, the return he'd command half of a season of play is probably worth less than the chance to attach him to a qualifying offer, try and retain him on a 1+1 contract, and receive a compensation pick if he declines. This would give him a chance to put together a performance worth the massive contract he thinks he’s worth. Either way, Bichette finishes the season with the team. A final thought: The Jays haven’t been shy about letting important players walk in free agency; see Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray, and Matt Chapman. Danny Jansen would likely also have been allowed to walk as a free agent if he weren’t traded at the 2024 trade deadline because the team was out of contention. If you’re in the Make Bo a Blue Jay For Life camp, it doesn’t bode well that the Jays haven’t re-signed any of the guys above, but my prediction is that he finishes the season with the Jays, not that he’s on the Opening Day roster in 2026! 4. Alan Roden starts more games in the outfield than Joey Loperfido. I want to make this as much as possible about buying Alan Roden stock, rather than selling Joey Loperfido stock, so I’ll start by saying this: I am in LOVE with Joey Loperfido’s tools. I think the defensive skills have elite potential, and the power potential is extremely exciting. Last year, Loperfido mashed throughout the minor leagues and earned a promotion to the bigs with 13 homers and a .933 OPS over 39 games in Triple A. But for all his minor-league numbers offer us to dream on, his big league-performance represents a startling wake up call. He really struggled with the leap, striking out in 36.3% of his plate appearances, and hitting for almost no power. It's dangerous to put too much stock in the Baseaball Savant sliders, but that's a lot of blue in a lot of extremely important categories. Loperfido chased too much, didn't make enough contact, and didn't hit the ball hard enough. On the other hand, no one should be writing off the tooled-up 25 year old after 81 games in the show, and I certainly am not. He did show solid bat speed, and that's important because in small sample sizes, it's very predictive of future performance. Still, if Loperfido flounders in a similar way to start 2025, I think the leash will be short on a team desperate for a playoff appearance. As for Roden, I think he was the reason the Jays were comfortable with moving on from Spencer Horwitz, and his profile is going to immediately translate to the Major Leagues. Speaking of guys that have mashed at every level of the minor leagues, Roden’s high-contact approach has led to consistent production across all levels of the minor leagues. In three seasons across four minor-league levels, Roden owns a .298 batting average and .860 OPS. When he was drafted in the third round in 2022, there were some serious doubts that he’d ever be able to hit for enough power to be a productive major leaguer, but I think you’d be hard-pressed to find an expert who doesn’t think Roden can stick in the bigs right now. He hit 16 homers across 125 games in the upper minors last season without sacrificing much in the way of contact or on-base skills. He walked nearly as much as he struck out, and Steamer projects that he'll run a 110 wRC+ in the majors this season. Roden is not expected to be a particularly good defender, but with Varsho and Springer in center and right and a really solid infield, I’m okay with trading some defence for offence in left field. I doubt Roden will make the club out of spring training. He’d need a spot on the 40-man roster, and other are several outfielders in the mix who will continue to factor in the team's decisions throughout the 2025 season, such as Jonatan Clase, Nathan Lukes, Davis Schneider, Addison Barger, Steward Berroa, and of course Loperfido, Springer and Varsho. However, with Varsho expected to miss the first month of the season, and the offence in desperate need of some dudes who can swing the bat, it's possible that the Jays could push the agenda and give Roden some run. On the other hand, they could sign Anthony Santander and completely change the outlook of the outfield and team as a whole, but I believe Roden could earn a spot on this team even with Santander in the mix. If Loperfido gets off to a slow start, and Roden has a strong spring training, I think Alan Roden will find himself on the Rogers Centre turf a lot this summer. View full article

That's right, the Toronto Blue Jays. From Canada. On Monday morning, as news of Roki Sasaki’s visit to Toronto made its way through the internet, Davy Andrews wrote for this site that Blue Jays fans should give themselves permission to set their excitement meters no higher than 10%. One day later, nobody would be able to blame you if you let your excitement climb even higher. On Monday night, Jeff Passan reported that the Toronto Blue Jays, along with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, are finalists to land the highly coveted Japanese right-handed pitcher. Original reporting had Sasaki meeting with just seven teams, and there was some clear movement Monday afternoon. Reports of the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Rangers, and Cubs being eliminated dropped periodically throughout the day. As part of the conditions of international free agency, Sasaki’s price tag is limited to whatever dollar figure teams have available in their international bonus pool. For the Blue Jays that number is just over $6 million. The hard cap on the amount teams are allowed to spend on Sasaki make him seriously underpaid, and ensures no team will be able to separate itself by blowing him out of the water with cash. This makes the pitches from the various teams all the more interesting. All three finalists have strong cases in their own right. What baseball player who has dreamed of winning the World Series would pass up the opportunity to join the Dodgers? The Padres could have had Japanese baseball royalty Yu Darvish wine and dine Sasaki in beautiful Southern California, and flex the (relatively) small market that many believe Sasaki may prefer. Or maybe the Blue Jays will be able to sell him on their ability to keep pitchers healthy and to control the media feeding frenzy, as Rogers’ Sportsnet is the main source of baseball media in Canada. It’s important to stress that the Dodgers remain the heavy favourites to land Sasaki, but the truth is that even after learning who the finalists are, we really aren’t sure what he’s looking for in a match. Sasaki has carried phenom status around with him since high school, and his feats are legend. He famously threw 17 consecutive perfect innings for the Chiba Lotte Marines of the NPB in April of 2022. If he were to choose Toronto, Sasaki would be the most exciting starting pitching signing since Roger Clemens took his talents north before the 1997 season. He would immediately slot in at the front of the rotation, turning Kevin Gausman from a slightly underwhelming number one option to an over-qualified number two starter. It's not overstating it to say that Sasaki could significantly change Toronto's outlook in a difficult American League East, especially if his ridiculous career 2.02 ERA and 5.76 strikeout-to-walk ratio translate to the big leagues as smoothly as scouts expect them to. The projection systems love him as well. Steamer projects Sasaki to put up 3.7 fWAR during the 2025 season, striking out 11.6 batters per nine innings and running a 3.19 ERA. In terms of WAR, that's the ninth-highest projection of any pitcher, coming in right between Sonny Gray and Corbin Burnes. PECOTA projects similar numbers, pegging Sasaki for a 3.04 ERA and 3.5 WARP, 14th among all pitchers. If the transition ends up going that seamlessly, he could immediately turn a Blue Jays team currently projected for 84 to 85 wins into one flirting with 90. He'd add a new level of upside, a potential Game 1 starter in a playoff series, and provide some much-needed depth for a rotation that seriously thins out after the fourth or fifth rotation spot. Framed that way, it’s not unreasonable to say that Sasaki could be the difference between the Blue Jays making the playoffs and missing out for a second straight season. According to the dictates of international free agency, Sasaki is confined to a tight window to make his decision. His choice will come sometime before January 23. I want to stress one more time before I let you go that Sasaki signing with the Blue Jays or Padres over the Dodgers would be a major surprise, but in the same breath, being one of three teams with a chance to acquire the services of the 23-year-old superstar is and should be extremely exciting. Hold on tight, Jays fans. View full article

In the first of a four-part series, we've got one prognostication about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. one for Alejandro Kirk. Blue Jays fans! The time has finally come to stop reflecting on the disappointment that was 2024 and to turn the page (or throw the old calendar in the trash and replace it with a new one). Let's start looking ahead to what 2025 has in store for our Blue Jays. Will it be a year of making deals with long-time friends, fresh faces carving out their space on the team, and exceeding expectations? Or will the sequel be worse than the original? Only time will tell, but as 2025 is such a pivotal year for the Blue Jays — imminent free agents, young players stepping into bigger roles, and veterans looking to play key roles — I figured I’d take a stab at coming up with some bold predictions for what lies ahead in the next calendar year. This is the first of a four-part series that will run all week. Here we go… 1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. makes it to free agency before signing with the Blue Jays long-term. Hoooo boy, we’re starting off with a bang. One of the most anxiety-inducing conversations you can have with a Blue Jays fan (and members of the front office, I'm sure) is about the future of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I could waste my breath and spend a couple paragraphs complaining about the fact that this deal should have been done three or four years ago, but in the spirit of a new year and looking at what’s ahead, I’ll leave it at that. The fact is, the most pivotal contract discussion in franchise history is going to be taking place in the next six weeks before spring training starts. While Vlad and the Jays were able to agree on a contract for 2025, avoiding a second straight year of arbitration, there is a serious lack of smoke from Blue Jays insiders, and Vlad’s recent appearance on Abriendo Sports podcast in which he said that he recently turned down a $340-million contract extension is giving me the vibe that the Blue Jays are hesitant to open up the purse strings in a meaningful enough way for Guerrero to forego the opportunity to field offers from the 29 other teams. We know how closely Guerrero watched the Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto sweepstakes, where the bidding was driven up to $700 million, and I certainly can’t blame him for betting that given his young age, another elite offensive season could spark a bidding war and a contract well over $400 million. With the rare opportunity to test free agency heading into his age-27 season, Guerrero is all but guaranteed to receive the largest contract for a first baseman in baseball history. Now to the second part of the prediction: I believe that the Blue Jays will ultimately pony up the cash and ensure that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a Blue Jay for the rest of his career, or at least the next 10 to 15 years. It’s been covered ad nauseam at this point, but Guerrero has maintained throughout the last six years that he loves being a Blue Jay and wants to spend his career in Toronto. It’s also become sickeningly apparent that attracting superstars to Toronto via free agency is not easy, especially during a stretch of disappointing seasons. So I think it’s fairly obvious that ensuring the superstar you already employ sticks around is vital to your baseball operations. There are arguments to be made about whether or not Guerrero is a true superstar or a generational talent who belongs in the same conversation as Ohtani or Soto. I'd probably say he’s a tier below, given his lack of positional versatility and the level of volatility he showed. But in the same breath, I’d argue that the true question we should be asking is: can Guerrero be the best offensive player on a World Series-winning team? And with the right team around him, there is no doubt in my mind that he could be. The baseball side of the case to give Vlad a blank check is fairly obvious, so the conversation should end here, but if you need any more convincing, just take a look at how alienated the fanbase feels right now, and how much Guerrero means to all of the people who love this team. Ross Atkins and company may have already sealed their fate as the most hated front office in Blue Jays history, but letting Guerrero walk would ensure that they'd never be welcome into the country of Canada again. My official prediction is that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will sign with the Blue Jays for $420 million and 11 years before the 2025 Winter Meetings. 2. Alejandro Kirk represents the Blue Jays at the All-Star Game. I told you these would be bold! Before the 2023 season, the Blue Jays made a very heavy bet on the talent of Alejandro Kirk, trading away the game’s top catching prospect in Gabriel Moreno. While this was one of the more controversial Blue Jays trades of recent memory, you can’t fault anybody involved for handing the catcher position to a 23-year-old coming off of an All-Star selection and Silver Slugger. Unfortunately, Krik's inability to put together even league-average production at the plate is one of the biggest reasons the Jays have struggled offensively over the past two seasons. In 2023, his contact quality cratered, and his wRC+fell all the way from 129 in 2022 (?) to just 96 in 2023 (?). It was more of the same from Kirk to start 2024, as he rocked a dismal 79 wRC+ across 213 plate appearances through the July 30 trade deadline. This made the trading of pending free agent catcher Danny Jansen to the Boston Red Sox at the trade deadline slightly surprising, because the Jays were doubling down on the bet placed on Kirk’s productivity prior to 2023. But after the trade deadline, while Kirk was asked to take on a heavier load, something extremely interesting happened. Over his last 173 plate appearances, Kirk was an above average hitter, putting up a 113 wRC+. After digging into the batted ball data, it’s hard to quantify exactly what changed. He didn't hit the ball harder, or put it the air more often. It might simply have been that his batted ball luck turned around, but despite his terrible start, Kirk finished 2024 with (slightly) above-average exit velocity. It’s always important to take projections with a grain of salt, but Fangraphs’ Steamer believes in Kirk as an offensive player, projecting him to have the third-best(!) wRC+ among all catchers, and put up by far his best offensive season since 2022. Combining some renewed offensive prowess with Kirk’s elite defensive skills would make him a shoe-in for another four-win season, and if he gets out of the gate hot, he should be a lock to be one of the top catchers in the American League. A little food for thought before moving on: Although 2024 was a major disappointment for Kirk, he finished with the same fWAR as 2024 all-star Adley Rutschman despite player 45 fewer games. That wraps up my first two predictions. Tune in tomorrow for the next batch! View full article