Amok

No question JBJ needs some Vs LHP. But Benni post just under a .800OPS Vs LHP to go with that .269BA. And there is a good chance the 25 year old is on his way to becoming an all-star. Pillar has a career .766OPS Vs LHP. He was good last year in limited AB Vs LHP, something like .820. But the year before he was .696. He is useful to the Red Sox but I wouldn't be sitting the Red Sox young OFs to get Pillar's okay bat in the lineup Vs LHP. JBJ yes because he has a major weakness Vs LHP.

No question hits LHP better than RHP. But most of the Red Sox LHB in the OF hit LHP better than Pillar. It just JBJ that he could platoon with. And Fangraph said that maybe it would be best to play Pillar in RF on those days because of his declining defense. So Pillar in RF, Verdugo in RF and JBJ takes the day off Vs LHP.

Then you have a lot of "terrible teams" winning the WS. Cards I am looking at you. If you put too much chance into a baseball what the point of being good? A terrible team (sub .500) will beat the great teams 30% to 40% of the time.

Hinch was knew about what Cora and the players were doing and did almost nothing to stop it. Luhnow didn't know about the trash can but there was e-mails to him about using the video room to steal signs. Manfred issued a stern warning to all 30 teams on September 15, 2017 after the Red Sox were caught using their video room to steal signs. So there was clear direction from MLB Commissioner office to stop doing this crap. Also Houston owner Crane directed Luhnow to address any issues and make that Houston wasn't doing anything similar. Luhnow did nothing.

Guys like Stevenson who get on base a ton WITHOUT any power in the lower minors almost always have trouble Vs better stuff in the upper minors. Pitchers will start to challenge him more because they are not scared of him. Plus he is 22-23 in high A ball. He is a grade C- prospect.

That number is from April/May, so it will have Morales and Smith's trade money in it. Is there another deal after that date?

Blue Jays $5,398,0000 Rikelvin de Castro, SS, DR, 1.2 million Estiven Machado, SS, Venezuela -- $775,000 Robert Robertis, OF, Venezuela -- $750,000 Peniel Brito, OF, Dominican Republic -- $600,000 Cesar Ayala, RHP, Venezuela -- $450,000 Endri Garcia, SS, Venezuela -- $350,000 Christian Feliz, OF, Venezuela -- $325,000 Victor Mesia, C, Venezuela -- $300,000 Unknown signing bonus Estarling Beltre, of, Dominican Republic Leafar Yege, ss, Dominican Republic Nathanael Perez, rhp, Dominican Republic WIlder Perez, ss, Venezuela Luis Bullon, c, Venezuela Kelvin Perez, rhp, Venezuela Yeiret Mordan, of, Dominican Republic Carlos Perez, lhp, Venezuela Guillermo Villasmil, rhp, Venezuela George Gomez, rhp, Venezuela Sergio Caruci, rhp, Venezuela So the the Jays have about 648,000 after the known signing bonuses. The other guys will not be much but I don't think the Jays have much money left this year.

There is a little bit too much hometown love for Alford with the Toronto fan base. Both Fisher and Alford were former top 100 prospects. But Alford hasn't hit since 2017 in AA ball while Fisher has hit every level, every year in the minors. At AAA ball 2019 Alford .333/wOBA Vs Fisher .392/wOBA 2018 Alford .300/wOBA Vs Fisher .358/wOBA Fisher also posted a .411/wOBA in 2017 Alford has some raw power potential but he has never shown it really in the minors. And there is an old scout rule that guys without power will start to fall off in the upper minors. High level pitchers will just start to challenge them more because they are not afraid. Is that what happen with Alford, i really don't know. But I will say this I would be open to Alford being a defensive sub for CF/RF and right handed bat to PH for Fisher late in the game. He also a pinch base runner option but this is not exactly a slow team.

Cool, it can't be more than a few million. lol so the Blue Jays with Canada and South Korea combined now have 90 million TV market, take that New York's little 20 million TV market.

Price will be 35 in August. He has good when has been able to pitch but that hasn't been often. Even if the Red Sox give the Jays 12 million a year that is still 20 million to a questionable old pitcher for the next 3 years. 2020 in my mind is still a rebuilding year. 2021 You have Paxton as a free agent, maybe add someone like Odorizzi also. Price on the roster will limit the options the Jays have for other free agents.

Saw that, but it includes an estimate 15 millions in benefits. They are not usually included in payroll numbers. Without that number it is 106 million. Also think their 12.4 million for 7 pre-arb players is kinda high but I am not sure.

I didn't think it would happen with Ryu, for the simple reason if hasn't happen by now he wanted to go to somewhere else. But I was wrong and I am guessing the 4th year did it. It is very high risk with his injury history but he was a 5 WAR player last year, I say do it. As for Price, I would pass. The Jays are not going to win next season with Ryu. The goal is to make the team better, let the young lineup grow, get Pearson/Kay into the rotation and sign a few pieces to make the team better. (.500 or just over) Then use that extra payroll space to sign two good starters for a real playoff run in 2021. (players will want to come here after next season growth) Price may come back or he may pitch 100IP again. Save the payroll space for someone younger and better.

I don't know much about Shane Farrell but I will say this... There are teams that are the farm systems for future GMs. Boston, Cleveland, Oakland have a long history of grooming future upper level front office execs. The Cubs under Theo Epstein are one of those teams. So the fact he came from the Cubs is a major plus. Also he seem to be a fast mover in the Cubs system.

Gibson is a 2.5 to 3.0WAR starter. And Wheeler signed with the Phillies a 81 win team. He picked them over the Whitesox because of East Coast location. But it is not like the Phillies are a powerhouse. I haven't really looked at the free agent list. My guess they will make a run at local Canadian boy James Paxton. But it is way too early to talk about next off-season for free agents. Bottom line the Jays will have a young core with a ton of potential close to .500. If the dollars are right the Jays can sign people.

The issue with the Jays doing a trade with Cleveland is they are looking for closer to major league ready prospects. Dodgers have a good system plus close to major league prospects. You never know if rumors are true but the Dodgers are talking Lux (2nd in the top 100) and/or May (32nd). Both are ready now and very very good. I am a big fan of Groshan but is he too far from the majors for the Indians? Unless we trade from the major league roster can we beat the Dodgers? It is either Pearson or Groshan plus Jansen/Biggio/Gurriel.

Giles had an amazing season last year but his WAR was just 1.8. A closer is important but more important to a winning team, the Jays have more needs right now. I much more interest in fixing our 1B or rotation issues long-term than the closer role on a mid 70 win team. Fansgraph projects the Jays lineup to be about average next year. ZIP projects this team to win about 75 games before the off-season. If the Rangers, Reds and Whitesox can sign guys in that range then so can the Jays. Also if a few things go right then the Jays are not far off from .500.

Grichuk will never be good but he should be a 2WAR type player. Last few years 3.0, 2.2, 1.5, 2.1. So the 0.5 last year wasn't normal for him. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. now has 600 career ABs (basically a full season). His line over those 600AB is 31HR .320OBP .499SLG 342/wOBA. Hernandez is my DH but I want to give up on him. But it is hard to do after that amazing second half. He has a 1200ABs now in the majors and chances are we know what we will get. Fisher in RF with those minor league numbers and limited major league ABs is my wild card. I am very interested in the LHB power/speed combo. He could break out or do nothing, but I think he should get a full year to try. It is a rebuilding year so what harm is there? So I do think there is potential for improve in the OF and if they don't then put OF on the shopping list for next season.

ZIP is always high with their ERAs. Tanner Roark is a career 3.71ERA pitcher. His ERA for the last three years is 4.45. I don't think he is amazing but I don't think he will post a 5.16ERA. Keith Law is high on him The Blue Jays signed one of the better second-tier free-agent starting pitchers on the market, Tanner Roark, who has been steady and durable for four seasons now, and who may have been affected by the Happy Fun Ball more than the average pitcher. He even stayed homer-prone after a trade to Oakland, whose home park tends to be very friendly to fly-ball pitchers. His slider has been his best pitch for years, but its break was reduced in 2019, and my hypothesis is that the changes to the baseball's physical characteristics were the cause. If I'm right, and the baseball gets somewhere back to normal, Roark could get back to the 3+ WAR territory he was in before the ball changed. Even at just 2 WAR, though, he's fair value or better for the Jays at $12 million a year for two years, and gives Toronto some needed bulk in its rotation. Now I not sure he will return to a 3 WAR pitcher but he is a good bet for 2.0 to 2.5 this year.

The Jays are rolling the dice on Yamguchi, maybe it will work out and they find will find a 4th starter. If it doesn't it will not cost an arm and a leg. Cards are also signing Kwang-Hyun Kim on the same day. It is 2 years 8 million, but he is 30 and throws a little harder.

Injury and age are major X factors but I would take a run at him. His K rate is not elite but two things stand out. His BB% is 5.6% which is the lowest in the majors for a starter. He doesn't walk guys. According to fangraph he’s exceptional at limiting hard contact; his average exit velocity of 85.3 mph ranked in the 96th percentile. His changeup is one of the best pitches in the majors.

He is making 30 million a year to pitch like a 3rd starter. His season with the Jays he worth 6.7WAR (both teams) He had one good year in Boston at 4.4 and now the last three were 1.5,2.4 and 2.3. A lot of that WAR value is him being hurt a lot, but he is seeing drops in his key ratios. For the record I was hopeful that the Blue Jays would re-sign Price, but they were very lucky not to.

Dickey's WAR his first year with the Jays was 1.8. Roark's WAR last season was 2.0. According to MLB pipeline d'Arnaud and Thor were ranked 11th and 83rd prospects in the 2012 top 100 list. If the Jays gave up Pearson and Groshans for Roark, people would go crazy. For a price like that we should have got a much younger real ace.

ZIP projections for the Jays is 75 wins. So Ryu-Roark-Anderson additions wouldn't be too far off from .500. Ryu was almost 5 WAR last year. Roark 2 and Anderson 1.2. That is 8 WAR total but of course there could and will be some drop off from last year numbers. Shoemaker is also a wild card, he was pitching so well before he went down.

Tanner Roark is the not the sexy option but he is a solid 4th or at best 3rd starter. He is a placeholder for a rebuilding team that needs innings. He gives the Jays young guys time to develop and takes pressure off the pen. He is not my first choice but he is okay. I also think the Jays should still be looking for other rotation options. 2016 3.3WAR 2017 2.8WAR 2018 2.2WAR 2019 2.0WAR ZIP projection for the Jays before Anderson and Roark pickup was about 75 wins for the Jays. The goal of this off-season is to add longterm pieces to the rebuild (which the Jays haven't done yet) and to improve the team to around .500. Around .500 will make it easier for the Jays sign free agents and it is going to need placeholders like Roark. Even if the Jays spent 360 million on Cole, you still need guys like Roark to fill out the rotation.

Japanese teams get a percent of the deal. So it is 20% of the first 25 million, 17.5% of the next 25 million and anything over 50 is 15%. I am interested in Tsutsugo but I think of him more of a placeholder until the Jays get someone better. But every option on the free agent market is a placeholder. His DT-based Simple Projection based on his 2019 season (his worst yet) is .339OBP .442SLG .782OPS. But that is not based on age, park factors (Skydome will help those numbers) and if the Jays platoon him. Basically for 1B it is him Vs Eric Thames and EE. Eric Thames had some nice platoon numbers over the last three years with the Brewers 2017.369/wOBA 2018.330/wOBA and 2019 .354/wOBA. But he is 33 so there is some risk there. And EE will lose a ton of value with his glove but he does have a better bat than the other two (but he will be 37 soon) I say go for Tsutsugo, he could crush it and post a .800OPS. Plus it is will be a cool news story for 2020 with the Jays have their first major Japanese player. PS there is also a report that his exit velocity numbers are comparable to the balls in play off Nick Castellanos’ bat.