el diego

Eh, you might be right, but there are scenarios where they still pursue it: 1. Don't want to show favouritism 2. Cops didn't know who Osuna was when they laid the charge and Crown doesn't wanna drop it right away to save face 3. Cops/Crown don't care who he is I honestly don't know how the police and Crown deal with higher profile accused and I don't think there's necessarily a pattern. And anyway, Osuna isn't that instantly recognizable.

This is true, although if she doesn't want to co-operate then there's a good chance the Crown won't pursue the charge (although a recant on a domestic looks fishy to the Crown, so they may push it a bit). Definitely depends on the facts i.e. is there any evidence beyond her statement. Anyway, it's not like this thing will go to trial. It'll either get stayed or he'll plead guilty and do some programming (unless he like destroyed her).

I wouldn't be quick to moralize this, an arrest for assault on your girlfriend could be a wide range of things: from they got into an argument, nothing happened, but someone called the cops on em and they felt they had to arrest him, to he smashed her in the face -- and everything in between (and it is probably in between). I would be quick to be worried about what the league does.

I think the real tough question is, what do you do with the impending FAs if you're within like a game of the WC at the trade deadline?

Zero advantage? He gets to eat ice cream and cookies without having to worry. That's very much an advantage to some people. Some of you are acting like you're Vladdy. The truth is he's the top prospect doing what he's doing now. What incentive does he have to change?

One thing to potentially think about if you're Atkins/Shapiro is, do you think it's worth it to think 6 years down the line at this moment? How much do the powers that be care about that? It's easy to think about that if you're a die hard, life long fan but if your job requires results (both on and off the field) then you're not putting as much weight into that final year of arbitration ability as a hardcore fan is.

I think that's the case for a lot of people. I can see why people would assume that, actually. I think for others, perhaps they're simply ok with keeping Vlad down for an extra month next year in order to not blow a full service year.

Yeah, but why? Is he just rolling in money, or is he a degenerate gambler?

This is true. If their plan is to get another full FA year out of him then you just can't call him up. I guess my point #3 was off. It should read: 3. Therefore, if the Jays are planning on having Vladdy on the team before the full service year date next year, there is no contractual reason to not bring him up AFTER the Super 2 date this year (which will have to be guessed).

Apologies if this has been figured out already, but I've been trying to become more familiar MLB service time hi jinks. Here is my current understanding, can someone tell me if and where I am incorrect? 1. The date for a full year of service time has passed, so calling up Vladdy right now does not detract a year from when he becomes an unrestricted FA . 2. The date to NOT become a Super 2 player has (almost certainly) not passed. This date fluctuates year to year but is usually about 2-3 months in. 3. Therefore, if the Jays are planning on having Vladdy on the team before the Super 2 date next year, there is no contractual reason to not bring him up AFTER the Super 2 date this year (which will have to be guessed). I *think* that's right but like I said, I've only now begun to try and truly wrap my mind around MLB's rules.

Nice swing on a mistake by Lourdes, shame it didn't go out. Carrasco looks beatable today.

Intriguing

At least we can bank on the Twins bumbling us a couple runs soon.

Morales was in swing mode no matter what. I know hitting in nigh on impossible, but why would that ever be your approach?

If you can show me that: 1. There is a useable, hideable substance that increases spin rates ~200-300 RPMs; and 2. Every pitcher that joins the Astros sees their spin rate improve ~200-300 RPMs then that's not exactly proof, but I'd sure be intrigued.

Idk tbh, I haven't done a deep dive into Teoscar. It's very possible that he's come up with a conclusion first and explanation later, just like many others do. Yes I don't get this line of thinking either. It really does seem like people take an all or nothing stance on this, or maybe those opinions are what I choose to read/what's most salient.

I think you've hit the nail on the head. I see this phenomenon a lot with baseball fans of advanced metrics. The general idea behind these advanced metrics is that you get a better chance of predicting a player's most likely outcome, but people look at these stats to show that definitely outcome X will happen because "Look at these overwhelming numbers I have on my side", as if nothing can ever change. Well, of course things can change. Players get their eyes checked, players get injured/healthy, players change their swings, pitchers change how they approach hitters, players become more mature, etc. The thing is, I don't need to provide you with an explanation as to why numbers can change from the minors to the majors (or within the majors) because it happens. You'd think Blue Jays fans, who just witnessed what Bautista and Encarnacion did, would realize this. I'm not saying this happens often, that's why advanced metrics work, but it certainly does happen. Now, if all tercet was saying was "Look, maybe Teoscar has changed but his numbers from his career show this is likely not sustainable so I'd rather bet on those numbers than whatever purported change you claim" I may agree with him. I think people can very easily create post-hoc explanations for players on a hot streak (e.g. Goins and his bat resting on his shoulder) that are really not the true explanation. But his complete trust in the numbers without ever contemplating that he doesn't have every single variable accounted for to 100% accuracy is absurd. It is as if he truly believes that if you just gave him the data and a computer that he would be able to build a World Series winner every year without doing anything other than seeing who has the best WAR and K rate etc. historically.