With Zips incorporated, Fangraphs now has the Jays projected for 86 Wins, but they have Travis and Tulo projected for 4.1 wins. Diaz and Solarte are projected to be worth 1 win in Total. So the keys to the Jays success really is Solarte and Diaz having good seasons making up for the lost at bats for Travis and Tulo.
Its hard to see where other wins come from. Donaldson is already projected to be worth 6 wins, and the starting rotation is projected to be 13.7 wins. The only place to look at are the corner outfields, which are projected to be about a win and a half each. So in order for the Jays to surprise and be in a WC position, they would need:
Middle infield to provide about 5 wins with a combination of Tulo, Travis, Solarte and Diaz,
Surprises from the corner outfield positions from the young group of Alford, Hernandez, Pompey, etc.
If those two things happen, Jays will compete for a WC spot. If they dont, this is a 77-81 win team. Lots of areas where things can go wrong, including Starting Rotation and Catcher position.