My data was for him is as a starter only. Think about it… 3.65 SIERA since 2011, that’s good. He might not be quite as good as 2012-13 but I think he can still be effective. He’s mastered his change-up the last 2-3 years (K% increase with the CH). 31 years old is not really an age I’d start worrying about any significant performance drop-offs.
The Blue Jays actually have a HR PF of 118… the data you’re using has been halved to account for only playing half the games in a season at home.
I don’t know why you are using a lower BABIP as an argument here. Sure the BABIP is lower makes sense for FB pitchers but that doesn’t change the point we’re talking about here.
All of this kind of proves my point anyway. And with that said I still think Estrada can be effective enough at RC.
That is a good article and does kind of prove my point as well (significant or not). “As expected, fly-ball pitchers have been hurt by dinger parks, and they’ve benefited from non-dinger parks. But there’s nothing extreme, here — it’s just a matter of percentages.”