I'm more inclined to look at the actual moves he has made than winning and losing, or even how the moves eventually turn out. He has made some bad moves, but I think he's made a lot more good ones. If JJ had pitched like he should have, and Reyes hadn't gotten injured, the marlins trade would be looking pretty good right now. I also think that the Melky signing was a good move as you can't predict a tumour in the spine. I think that they overpaid for Dickey, but after the Marlins trade and the Melky signing, I think it was worth overpaying to give them a chance to contend.
Obviously, none of these moves turned out last year, but I think the vast majority of people thought it was a great off season by AA and rightly so.