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apoc10

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Everything posted by apoc10

  1. I think that if you take out Wong, it'd be much more even trade, but I was swinging for the fences for this trade. I think Martinez, Miller and Taveras is a vastly talented package that would be good for Toronto and would be. Like St. Louis says they have an abundance of starting pitching and right now their depth chart has Miller as their #5 and Martinez is in their bullpen. We immediately make their team's offense miles better, while barely impacting their starting lineup. It does take away from their future, but it's a heck of a team for the next 3 years. It's not like we're asking for Wacha. And you can't just look at talent alone, because you have to look at needs. Fitting needs is sometimes more valuable than just measuring talent. I think if you look at the overall picture, the Cardinals still have a crazy farm system and will become much better with the upcoming draft with 3 first round picks. They're own, competitive balance pick, beltran pick. They always draft well due to their scouting and I think they can deal from the depth of their farm to destroy Boston next year. Janssen did pitch against Boston year round. haha... just saying.
  2. The Axford trade just shows what Cardinals are willing to give up to get a closer. Maybe they do value relief a little bit more. Dotel and Rzep helped them win world Series.
  3. I think it's a bit far fetched, hence why I just threw it out there, but it's really about what the cardinals organization values and I've been on their message boards and people were willing to give up Miller, high level player and prospects for Tulo, but they were also weary of the length of his contract. Reyes contract is shorter and they both have injury concerns, but everyone admits that Reyes injury was a freak accident. Reyes is also a switch hitter and would be playing on grass in the national league, which he's familiar with. Like I said, look what James Shield brought back in a trade, I know he's a starter, but I think top elite players are tough to trade for in general and you have to pay to get what you want. I think young and cost controlled shortstop that is a superstar is impossible to find. I think they would prefer a proven shortstop, and under a solid contract. Given what Stephen Drew is going to pull in on the open market, Reyes salary won't look so bad. Like I said, the cardinals have $40million coming off the books and they can afford Reyes 16mill salary for 2014. It balances out given Bautista's cheap salary. Wong is not a third basemen and plays second and is blocked by matt carpenter and the fact they give up on a former playoff MVP is something not likely. Selling on him on one bad year I doubt it. They'll probably keep Freese for another season. Their hole is at shortstop and right field. Matt Adams plays first and Allen Craig could probably play a corner field, but the defense is suspect and Bautista's killer arm in RF with instant power could easily replace Beltran. Adams is still young and could be bait for another trade, but neither are them are true right fielders. Bautista vs. Beltran is that Bautista is younger and going to be a cheaper contract, and letting beltran go still gets them a first round pick in an upcoming VERY DEEP DRAFT. Also, Bautista has the flexibility to play third which is quite advantageous for the cardinals if Freese does falter. It's hard to find that type of versatility in a player of Bautista calibre and it plays right into the Cardinals hands. Taveras is still unproven and might be good, but again, there's risk he could flame out. Remember James Shield got Wil Myers and Jake Odorri and prospects, while the Cardinals will get Bautista plus first round pick for letting Beltran go. Wong also is completely unproven in MLB. The Cardinals were looking for a proven closer hence the trade for john axford and adding someone cheap like Janssen who proved himself in the AL East is something that they would not mind. I don't think he's no use, but he does have some value as a proven closer. But he's part of the deal as more of a sweetner as the meat of the trade is Bautista and Reyes. If we included Delabar or Cecil who were all-stars last year could be something that could work as well and they are controllable for cheap, but that's offset by the fact they were not closers. But you could sell the trade as the Cardinals getting 3 all-stars, with two of them being perennial all-stars. Young relievers are great, but I they're looking to change a few of them into starters if possible as there's much more value in that. Maybe the Jays need to throw in some money in this trade, or maybe the cardinals will alter the prospects in the trade. But if tulo = Miller, Lynn, prospects, or Hardy = Miller and prospects, then doing a weighted trade: Reyes = Miller + 1/2 Martinez + 1/4 wong Bautista = Taveras +1/2 Martinez +1/4 Wong Janssen = 1/2 Wong and we throw in cash. Maybe things change and they take out Martinez and put in another prospect, or maybe Jays add in more cash or a prospect for them. Jays have risk in that they are acquiring unproven MLB prospects, it's not like they're getting Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado here. While Cardinals have possible injury concerns, but that's a lot of players. It's funny, because I've heard responses the Jays are giving up too much, while others say Cardinals are giving up too much. That means, I'm probably nearing somewhere in the middle.
  4. New to the board and this is a proposal I’ve analyzed and put together. Let me know what you guys think. Just thinking out of the box. I’m trying to take all the rumours and facts out there and tried to facilitate a possible scenario. Based on general sentiment, AA wants to complete to following tasks: 1) Find starting pitching (#1,#2 calibre) 2) Stay competitive and I believe the following are nice to haves, 2) Find 2B 3) Shed salary 4) Get young and controllable players I think St. Louis makes a good trade partner as their needs and surplus of certain resources matches well with our needs and surplus of resources. St. Louis have an issue at 2B with Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong, while needing to fill the SS position. They are also losing RF Beltran to free agency, however are getting a compensation pick for giving him QO. They also have a surplus of MLB ready pitching, while having a approx. $40mil of salary coming off the books with Furcal, beltran, carpenter, westbrook, mujica. They were also looking for a proven closer and would like to move hot prospect Carlos Martinez into the rotation. They don't want to go free agent route because of the ridiculous prices being asked. Drew for 15mill/year, Granderson 20mill/year, Beltran 16 mill/year, so the trade route is any option with a plethora of prospects at their disposal. Recap: Glut of 2B, Glut of Starters, still searching for closer, RF replacement, SS replacement, The Blue Jays may line up very well with the Cardinals and they’ve worked together before with the Rasmus trade that helped them win a World Series that year. The Jays may be looking to trade Bautista due to his age, but he is still producing and has an extremely friendly contract for the next 3 years. The turf doesn’t help the aging process. With all the talk about his behavior, may be good for a change of scenery. We were looking to promote Gose and even Sierra had hit well at the end of the year and in Dominican league right now. Rasmus has emerged as a great CF, and Gose best position would be RF. He needs to learn to hit, but his speed and defense would be most beneficial in RF. Also, the hit tools will be acquired for in the trade as I detail below. Reyes, although a good leadoff hitter, he’s definitely someone I think the cardinals would prefer and they are willing to even taking on Tulo’s salary. He’s making 18mill/year, but that’s 82 mill over next 4 years. He’s a bit unlucky with the injuries last year, but the turf is not something every player can deal with, and like Bautista, as they age, it gets worth. He was missing for lineup for large parts of the year and we still finished with a solid offense. We don’t have an exact replacement for SS, but finding average SS are easier. Rockies asking for like miller and matt adams. Janssen was great closer and the talk of getting the most value for him now is what everyone was looking for. His contract expires soon, and we the emergence of our bullpen, as well as the numerous backend starting rotation options, he has become expendable. I think Santos as closer or even Delabar would be acceptable. Here’s the trade: Blue Jays Bautista 14mill/year (42 over 3) Reyes 16 mill (82 over 4) Janssen 4mill in 2014 St. Louis Shelby Miller (SP) (15-9, 3.06 ERA, 173IP, 9 SO/9) Carlos Martinez (SP)/Kevin Siegrist Oscar Taveras (LF) (#2 prospects in all of baseball) they got Bautista holding RF for the next 3 years. Kolten Wong (2B) Free Agent Signings: Both our top two picks are protected so signing free agents this year is the most optimum. Sign C, which falls in line with what the team wants to do anyway. Sign SS, if we feel the necessity as izturis can’t secure SS role. Take a flier on pehralta, inge, Michael young, or trade for aybar, or alexei Ramirez? Get a 4th veteran OF if necessary. A good team balance of young and veterans. Jays Lineup – Order can change Gose (RF)) Cabrera/Taveras (LF) Encarnacion (1B) Rasmus (CF) Lawrie (3B) Lind (DH) Wong/Goins (2B) Izturis/Trade or Sign (SS) C? Pierzynski/Arencibia Bench: Goins, Sierra, Pillar, Thole, Rotation: Dickey, Miller, Buerhle, Morrow, Happ Bullpen: Santos, Delabar, Cecil, Mcgowan, Loup, Wagner, Rogers, ?, ?, ? Drabek, Hutch, Nolin, Stroman, Redmond, Rogers, Romero, J. Perez, L. Perez, Jeffress, Jenkins as options going forward in the spots #4 and #5 or bullpen. We could even trade Happ as it’s been mentioned for SS. Points of Discussion People are discussing Miller/Matt Adams/Siegrist for Tulo and also look at last years James Shield trade for Wil Myers and Odorozzi. I think we could ask for more if we wanted to as it’s Miller/Martinez for Reyes and Taveras/Wong for Bautista. Other points of discussion is that look what boston did by trading away Gonzo and Crawford, they didn’t mortgage the ability to compete, but they were able to grab prospects, and unload salary, while also using that extra cap room to spend on the components they needed to compete the next year. With way CBA changed the rules and how people are locking up their younger star pitchers, it seems like you can’t just go buy all-star pitchers, they never become available. This keeps the team competitive with a good looking rotation, with an offense that could I agree that the lineup is young and unproven, but Taveras is as close as you can get in terms of mlb ready hitting prospect outside of Buxton and Myers, and Miller is a proven pitcher. Wong is a solid hit tool for 2B.
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