TwistedLogic

Don't need to save money for Singer, he all but said that he's gonna sign for around slot. Their key over-slot targets are Crouse, Eden, and on a very very long stretch, Pruitt.

Cubs to promote Schwarber:

He was never not going to sign, and everyone knew that. Probably had a pre-draft deal, and probably didn't have much leverage either.

http://i.imgur.com/oT0roC2.png I think I’ve said this before, but I’ll say it again: while most of us understand that the gambler’s fallacy is a fallacy, sometimes it’s easy to see why so many people believe in it. In the case of this post, take the Blue Jays. Through the season’s first two months, they had the third-worst record in the American League, and a contender-worthy run differential. It seemed, at that point, like better times were ahead. But instead of things playing evenly from there, the Jays have simply ripped off 11 straight wins, rocketing back into the playoff picture. Barely any time ago, the Jays and Red Sox were battling for possession of not-last place in the AL East. This quickly, the Jays are back on their feet, and the Red Sox are a disaster. I don’t have a hot take. My hottest take might be this: the Jays aren’t a true-talent 162-0 team. Winning streaks are easy for analysts because we always get to know for a fact the given team is overachieving. But there’s no better time than now to review what the Jays have done, and to evaluate where they now stand. The situation has changed in a jiffy. Even their own front office is probably trying to catch up. It’s kind of funny to look at the Jays’ schedule. Obviously, over their last 11 games, they’re 11-0, and they’ve allowed 40 runs. Over the 11 previous games, they were 5-6, and they allowed 42 runs. Offensively speaking, they went from scoring 53 times in an 11-game stretch to scoring 88 times in the next 11-game stretch, and that’s where the difference has been, but then there’s been almost no change in walks, or strikeouts, or power. It’s been all about singles and timing. That’s how a decent team can build an impressive hot streak: advantageous sequencing. The 5-6 Jays and the 11-0 Jays haven’t been real different. I can’t tell if that’s supposed to be positive or negative; it just is. Despite the streak, the Jays still aren’t in first place. They’re not even in second place, now that I look at it. When this thing started, the Jays were five games back. After seven consecutive wins, they were still four games back. They’ve gained more ground since, but it’s easy to look at the standings and see that they’re still looking up. But the standings can mislead. A better alternative to glancing at the standings: glancing at the playoff odds. And here’s what’s happened, league-wide, since the start of June: http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/june-change-in-playoff-odds.png Even that doesn’t fully capture things — the winning streak started in the second game of a doubleheader, and I can’t get the playoff odds from in between games one and two. But while Toronto remains in third place in the East, they’ve gained massive ground in the playoff hunt. The Pirates are in second place, here, and their gain has been less than half of the Jays’. Much of the East has been playing well lately, but no one’s played better than Toronto, and they’ve also benefited from teams in other divisions dropping off. I mean, it helps the rest of the East to have the Red Sox suck, but it also helps to have the Mariners sinking. That plot is what Toronto has accomplished. It’s not that an extended winning streak is predictive, but it’s all about games in the bank, and Toronto has just about evened out. They are still two wins below their estimated BaseRuns record, but there’s a funny twist on that — their run differential is also substantially higher than their BaseRuns run differential. That plot: http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/run-differential-blue-jays.png Pretty much all of this is because of the offense, where the Jays have outpaced their BaseRuns productivity by nearly a half-run a game. This is all just looking back, so to sum up, in some ways the Jays have been lucky, and in other ways the Jays have been unlucky. Things are a lot more balanced now than they were just a couple weeks ago. Teams always need to be looking forward. Looking forward, what are the Jays? Are they the team with baseball’s best run differential? Conveniently, we sort of reviewed this a week ago. Early-season standings and performance matter, but they matter less than even the preseason projections do. And we have updated information. Based on that information, the Blue Jays look like a pretty decent team, but not a dominant team. They’re projected to win 52% of their remaining games, with baseball’s highest rate of runs scored per game, and baseball’s third-highest rate of runs allowed per game. Which shouldn’t be shocking. The offense is obviously potent, even without Devon Travis and Michael Saunders, and even with Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista fighting little aches and pains. There’s been perhaps no better addition in baseball than Josh Donaldson, followed closely behind on the same list by Russell Martin. Meanwhile, people have been down on the pitching staff for months. Sadly, the pitcher the Jays could use most is already on Toronto payroll, rehabbing an ACL tear. In a sense, the Jays and Red Sox aren’t too dissimilar. Neither team has an ace, rolling instead with adequate pitchers, hoping along the way for sufficient offensive support. Difference is, the Jays have gotten that offensive support, while the Sox have struggled in every area, and that’s why one team’s in the race and the other one has a mess to untangle. They came in with similar plans. The Jays are proving the model can work. The Sox are proving the model has flaws. While Boston, though, can work out what it wants to do differently in 2016, Toronto now gets to focus on playing well enough up to the trade deadline. A few weeks ago, I was trying to find potential homes for a Johnny Cueto/Aroldis Chapman package, and I settled on the Jays. Problem was, at that point, they weren’t playing well. Now they’ve made a full recovery, making this the trade I most want to see. I know that isn’t analysis, and I know the Reds are reluctant to give up, but I can’t imagine better fits, and from Toronto’s perspective, this team with those arms is a championship contender. It’s already mathematically a champion-ship contender, but now imagine them eliminating two gaping holes. The fun of the winning streak will end one of these days. Maybe it’ll even be followed by a losing streak. Things happen. The consequences of the winning streak, though, might last into the playoffs. In 11 games, the Jays got back into the picture. They get to focus on the moment again, and on the moments that’ll follow. They get to think about getting better now, because this is a team worth improving, because this is a team that could do something big.

Sources: MLB team enlisting potentially revolutionary technology to study pitching Jeff Passan, June 15, 2015 In the quest to keep arms healthy, the Tampa Bay Rays have always positioned themselves ahead of baseball, emphasizing a comprehensive shoulder-strengthening program long before other teams caught on. Now the Rays are hoping technology can give them a step up, too. The Rays will be the first team to install Kinatrax, a markerless motion-capture system, in their stadium, sources told Yahoo Sports. An announcement touting the move is expected Monday. Kinatrax uses ultra-high-speed cameras and aims to capture the sort of biomechanical data that previously necessitated the placement of reflective markers on different body parts. Should Kinatrax do what it purports to, it would revolutionize baseball by offering looks at pitchers’ in-game biomechanics instead of those revealed in laboratory settings. By installing Kinatrax at Tropicana Field, not only do the Rays get to analyze their own pitchers, they can track opponents’ biomechanics. Exactly how they will interpret the data is unclear, especially in the immediate future, but years worth of data could provide patterns that show typical biomechanical traits of pitchers who get hurt vs. those who stay healthy. One of the Rays’ analysts, Josh Kalk, was a noted guru in analyzing PITCHf/x data before he joined the team in 2009. Read the rest here: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources--mlb-team-enlisting-potentially-revolutionary-technology-to-study-pitching-154837850.html

Farrell is such a f***ing moron. Even when he does the right thing (calling out Hanley), he does it wrong (complaining about the bases loaded out that anyone could have made, instead of the hideous lack of effort on the drive that brought Colabello home from first).

Starters are voted by the fans, managers fill the rest of the roster.

There's a lot of Jays fans on BBB that are actually voting for the Royals for the same reason you said, lol. I think at this point, there's probably a lot of pissed off people from every fan base doing the same thing. And it probably that Royals fans are spreading some pretty brilliant ballot-stuffing strategies: http://www.royalsreview.com/2015/6/2/8703771/idiots-guide-to-legal-all-star-ballot-stuffing

Josh Degraaf signing: http://www.morrisherald-news.com/2015/06/12/morris-degraaf-drafted-by-toronto-blue-jays/at0b045/?page=2 “But now, I have a chance to play professional baseball, so I am going to take it.” http://i.gyazo.com/240ec7819e5c55aeb30adee7ed19bf4b.png Taylor Saucedo signing: "Tayler Saucedo (‏@tsauce7): Heading to Florida to start my pro career. Mixed with a lot of emotions this morning but mostly excited. Waited a long time for this ✈️✈️" http://www.tacomacc.edu/feeds/images/i964-Saucedo%20LCC.jpg

Billy Hamilton's lead off second base vs Lester: As Ang would put it: "macho alpha".

You just pointed out exactly why Kazmir is the perfect target for this team; he's not "sexy". He's an under-the-radar guy pitching like a #2/#3 starter in his third straight season, and he'd be the best SP on this team right now. He isn't a big-name guy, he's only the 4th best starter on the A's, he's a free agent at the end of the year, and it probably isn't a guarantee that he'd get a qualifying offer from the Athletics. This could turn into an extreme sellers market and you'll probably have to shoot yourself in the foot to get someone like Cueto. Guys like Kazmir and Chavez are good B targets.

lmao, did you not read the stats that you yourself posted? Travis was walking nearly twice as much as Lawrie is. Travis' BB/K rate is 0.41, Lawrie's is 0.14. Travis has a 134 wRC+ over Lawrie's 122, despite having a .292 BABIP to Lawrie's .380. Beyond the numbers, you can also take into account Lawrie's disgusting swing mechanics that have held him back for years and limited him to being a streaky hitter, and Travis' advanced approach at the plate. I do think Lawrie's defense can keep him at the major league level for a long time, whereas if Travis struggles with the bat, he might not find the same playing time. I even think there will be times where Lawrie is a more valuable player. With all that said, I would not this trade. Not only because, as Hurl stated, there's a large difference in service time, but because I believe that Travis will be the better, more consistent player in the long term.

The umps in this game are such prickly f***ing ****s. It's ridiculous that guys like Eddings can throw their weight around like this and the league doesn't do a f***ing thing about it. What a joke.

Dodgers' Adrian Gonzalez defiant after seventh-inning ejection Dylan Hernandez, June 13, 2015, 7:20 AM In the wake of the Dodgers’ 4-3 victory over the San Diego Padres on Friday night, Adrian Gonzalez was smiling and ready to talk about his seventh-inning ejection. Asked if he had any regrets about his dismissal, Gonzalez replied, “Absolutely not.” In fact, Gonzalez said he was looking forward to receiving a phone call from Joe Torre, the league’s chief baseball officer. “That’s why I did it,” Gonzalez said. Gonzalez remained defiant as he looked back at the events leading up to his ejection, saying his at-bats in the fifth and seventh innings were compromised by errant strike calls by home plate umpire Doug Eddings. Gonzalez had problems with a 3-1 pitch in the fifth inning, an outside fastball that was called for a strike. The pitch-tracking system showed the fastball by Odrisamer Despaigne was out of the strike zone. “It should have been ball four,” Gonzalez said. Gonzalez flied out on the next pitch. On his way back to the dugout, Gonzalez said he told Eddings, “That was a ball. That should have been ball four.” Instead of the Dodgers having runners on first and second base with one out and Howie Kendrick at the plate, they had a runner on first with two outs. At the time, the Dodgers were leading, 2-0. “It could have been a rally or something,” Gonzalez said. Gonzalez said his suspicions about the call were confirmed when he returned to the clubhouse and saw videos of the at-bat. “Every angle that we got in here showed it was a ball,” he said. Gonzalez returned to the plate in the seventh inning, this time with one out and the bases loaded. The first pitch, a breaking ball away by left-hander Frank Garces, was called a strike. Again, the tracking system showed the pitch was out of the zone. “I said a couple things about how it shouldn’t have been a strike,” Gonzalez said. “He started telling me that I was complaining about the pitch before. I said, ‘Yeah, I complained because it was a ball.’” At that point, Gonzalez said he was told by Eddings, “You know what? Now, you have to swing at that pitch.” Gonzalez said he became enraged. “At that point, that’s when I lost it,” he said. “There’s no way I was staying in the game if I made an out. “The fact that he just didn’t care is really what got me mad.” The next pitch was also outside, but Gonzalez swung at it for another strike. “Normally, I wouldn’t have swung at that pitch,” he said. “I already know that if I take it and he calls it a strike, I might get thrown out before the at-bat even ends.” Gonzalez grounded into an inning-ending double play, after which he exchanged words with Eddings. As he expected, he got the thumb. “One-oh is a huge different from oh-one," Gonzalez said. "And on top of it, he’s now telling me I have to swing at those pitches. For me, it’s unacceptable. I’m not going to just sit there and keep my mouth quiet over it.”

It wasn't during the 7th inning lol, it was taken much earlier in the game, when the Sox actually had a pretty big lead. That's just the expression that was on his face.

Richard Sherman made a tweet about how NFL players require more mental preparation than athletes of any other sport, and athletes of basically every other sport responded (including Bautista, who got more retweets and favorites on his comment than anybody else): http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25213730/richard-sherman-other-athletes-debate-mental-preparation-on-twitter http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/06/richard-sherman-jose-bautista-and-dale-jr-have-a-weird-debate-on-twitter

He's been bad (not terrible) for 25 innings this year, and he was excellent for five years and 400 innings before that. http://i.gyazo.com/6503078cfad7629c919dab2ab0661bba.png

And it will bring the Orioles, who are on a 5-game win streak, closer to the Jays. It's probably better if the Yankees win because they're going to be less of a threat later.

No. Travis is where Lawrie was after his great first cup of tea in the majors at the end of 2011. We already know that Lawrie didn't come close to living up to those lofty expectations, and we haven't yet proven that with Travis. We also don't yet know if Travis is anywhere near as injury prone as Lawrie is.

Twins call up Buxton:

Reddick still has two years of control (he's a free agent at the end of the 2016 season), and he won't come cheap. I do think that if the Jays and the A's were to match up as trade partners and they really wanted to get it done, the Jays could plug most of their holes in a trade with the Athletics in a blockbuster for Kazmir, Clippard and one of Zobrist/Reddick. Outside of Reddick, all of the other three guys are free agents at the end of the year, and Clippard has been bad and Zobrist has been s***. Maybe that would create an affordable trade, I don't know. I do think Kazmir would probably cost less than someone like Cueto, so that should be an avenue that they explore, if not a bigger trade.

They always do. When they started the fire sale last offseason, I was hoping the Jays would approach them for another trade, when I wanted them to target Doolittle, Moss and Reddick. It just comes down to whether or not the Jays have the guys that the A's want, and whether or not they'd be willing to give them up if they do. I don't see them chasing a trade for a guy like Reddick though, not before they do everything they can to find some arms.

I don't ever want to see Jeff Hoffman in a Phillies uniform.

Reddick would fit in so goddamn well with this team. He's been one of my favorite players for years, and I was really hoping that there would be a chance to acquire him over the offseason.