Back in 2016, we examined the history of teams trading an ace at the trade deadline and during the offseason.
In short, teams that trade a frontline pitcher for a prospect-laden package at the trade deadline almost never receive equal value in return, while teams that wait until the offseason fare better.
On the heels of the Rays trading Blake Snell and the Cubs trading Yu Darvish to the Padres, it’s instructive to look at precedent once more. We’ve updated our findings through the end of the 2020 season to provide a clearer picture of how likely it is the players the Rays and Cubs acquired will actually outperform Snell and Darvish over the rest of their careers.
As in our previous stories, we examined every offseason trade in the wild-card era (1995 to present) involving an ace-caliber pitcher and measured the post-trade career wins above replacement (WAR) totals, as calculated by Baseball-Reference.com, of the players involved.
Because of the different dynamics between trading a player during the regular season and the offseason, only trades made in the offseason were considered.
Our baseline criteria is three-fold. The deal must involve a pitcher who:
(1) Finished in the top three in Cy Young Award voting within the previous three seasons
(2) Was the primary player in the trade
(3) Was traded for at least two players who had not yet exhausted prospect eligibility.
(The Roger Clemens trade before the 1999 season and the Mike Hampton trade after the 1999 season are not included because Clemens and Hampton were primarily traded for major leaguers. The trade of Dontrelle Willis in 2007 is not included because Miguel Cabrera was the primary player in the trade.)
Please note Baseball-Reference adjusts its WAR calculations every few years, so career WAR totals for some players may have changed between 2016 and 2020 even if they were no longer playing.
April 6, 1995: Royals trade RHP David Cone to Blue Jays for SS Tony Medrano, RHP Dave Sinnes, and 3B Chris Stynes.
Blue Jays receive
Post-Trade WAR
Royals receive
Post-Trade WAR
David Cone
26.4
Chris Stynes
8.2
Tony Medrano
N/A
Dave Sinnes
N/A
Total: 26.4
Total: 8.2
Nov. 18, 1997: Expos trade RHP Pedro Martinez to Red Sox for RHP Carl Pavano and a player to be named later (RHP Tony Armas)
Red Sox receive
Post-Trade WAR
Expos receive
Post-Trade WAR
Pedro Martinez
62.6
Carl Pavano
16.6
Tony Armas
8.3
Total: 62.6
Total: 24.9
Dec. 15, 1997: Marlins trade RHP Kevin Brown to Padres for 1B Derrek Lee, RHP Rafael Medina and LHP Steve Hoff.
Padres receive
Post-Trade WAR
Marlins receive
Post-Trade WAR
Kevin Brown
31.3
Derrek Lee
34.3
Rafael Medina
-0.9
Steve Hoff
N/A
Total: 31.3
Total: 33.4
Jan. 14, 2001: Blue Jays trade LHP David Wells to White Sox for RHP Mike Sirotka, OF Brian Simmons, RHP Kevin Beirne and RHP Mike Williams.
White Sox receive
Post-Trade WAR
Blue Jays receive
Post-Trade WAR
David Wells
15.6
Mike Sirotka
0.0
Brian Simmons
-0.3
Kevin Beirne
0.0
Mike Williams
N/A
Total: 15.6
Total: -0.3
Nov. 28, 2003: Diamondbacks trade RHP Curt Schilling to Red Sox for LHP Casey Fossum, RHP Brandon Lyon, LHP Jorge De La Rosa and OF Mike Goss
Red Sox receive
Post-Trade WAR
D-backs receive
Post-Trade WAR
Curt Schilling
17.7
Jorge De La Rosa
14.9
Brandon Lyon
5.0
Casey Fossum
-2.1
Mike Goss
N/A
Total: 17.7
Total: 17.8
Jan. 11, 2005: Diamondbacks trade LHP Randy Johnson to Yankees for LHP Brad Halsey, C Dioner Navarro, RHP Javier Vasquez and cash.
Yankees receive
Post-Trade WAR
D-backs receive
Post-Trade WAR
Randy Johnson
12.3
Javier Vasquez
22.5
Dioner Navarro
7.0
Brad Halsey
0.1
Total: 12.3
Total: 29.6
Feb. 8, 2008: Twins trade LHP Johan Santana to Mets for OF Carlos Gomez, RHP Philip Humber, RHP Deolis Guerra and RHP Kevin Mulvey
Mets receive
Post-Trade WAR
Twins receive
Post-Trade WAR
Johan Santana
15.3
Carlos Gomez
24.0
Philip Humber
1.1
Deolis Guerra
-0.5
Kevin Mulvey
-0.5
Total: 15.3
Total: 24.1
Dec. 16, 2009: Blue Jays trade RHP Roy Halladay to Phillies for C Travis d’Arnaud, RHP Kyle Drabek and OF Michael D. Taylor
Phillies receive
Post-Trade WAR
Blue Jays receive
Post-Trade WAR
Roy Halladay
17.0
Travis d'Arnuad
4.1
Kyle Drabek
-0.1
Michael D. Taylor
-1.1
Total: 17.0
Total: 2.9
Dec. 16, 2009: Phillies trade LHP Cliff Lee to Mariners for OF Tyson Gillies, LHP Phillippe Aumont and RHP J.C. Ramirez
Mariners receive
Post-Trade WAR
Phillies receive
Post-Trade WAR
Cliff Lee
25.3
Phillippe Aumont
-0.8
J.C. Ramirez
0.5
Tyson Gillies
N/A
Total: 25.3
Total: -0.3
Dec. 19, 2010: Royals trade RHP Zack Greinke and SS Yuniesky Betancourt to Brewers for OF Lorenzo Cain, SS Alcides Escobar, RHP Jeremy Jeffress, and RHP Jake Odorizzi
Brewers receive
Post-Trade WAR
Royals receive
Post-Trade WAR
Zack Greinke
40.9
Lorenzo Cain
34.4
Yuniesky Betancourt
-3.6
Alcides Escobar
9.5
Jeremy Jeffress
8.7
Jake Odorizzi
12.5
Total: 37.3
Total: 65.1
Dec. 9. 2012: Rays trade RHP James Shields, RHP Wade Davis and a player to be named later (SS Elliot Johnson) to Royals for OF Wil Myers, LHP Mike Montgomery, RHP Jake Odorizzi and 3B Patrick Leonard.
Royals receive
Post-Trade WAR
Rays receive
Post-Trade WAR
James Shields
11.0
Wil Myers
11.5
Wade Davis
8.0
Mike Montgomery
6.1
Elliot Johnson
0.4
Jake Odorizzi
12.4
Patrick Leonard
N/A
Total: 19.4
Total: 30.0
Dec. 17, 2012: Mets trade RHP R.A. Dickey, C Mike Nickeas and C Josh Thole to Blue Jays for RHP Noah Syndergaard, C John Buck, C Travis D’Arnaud and OF Wuilmer Becerra
Blue Jays receive
Post-Trade WAR
Mets receive
Post-Trade WAR
R.A. Dickey
9.3
Noah Syndergaard
14.5
Josh Thole
-2.2
Travis d'Arnaud
4.1
Mike Nickeas
0.0
John Buck
0.1
Wuilmer Becerra
N/A
Total: 7.1
Total: 18.7
Dec. 6, 2016: White Sox trade LHP Chris Sale to Red Sox for 2B/3B Yoan Moncada, RHP Michael Kopech, OF Luis Alexander Basabe and RHP Victor Diaz.
Red Sox receive
Post-Trade WAR
White Sox receive
Post-Trade WAR
Chris Sale
15.2
Yoan Moncada
8.4
Michael Kopech
0.1
Luis Alexander Basabe
0.1
Victor Diaz
N/A
Total: 15.2
Total: 8.6