Olerud363

86 Cardinals stole 260 but only 600 runs

 

87 Cardinals went down a bit in steals, but up 200 in runs.

I'm not sure how much the baserunning helped. 80s Cardinals did often score more runs then you would expect. 80s Red Sox were a better hitting team, like they'd hit .270 .340 .400 and Cardinals would hit .270 .340 .380, and Cardinals would score a bit more some years. But other years Cardinals would score 600 with great baserunning.

So like if the trade off is team that steals 200 bases or a team that hits a bit better, I think the team that hits a bit better scores more runs. Like the late 80s Red Sox scored lots of runs just by hitting for average and on base but were horrible base runners.

It was actually all about on base percentage. 85 and 87 Cardinals led league in on base percentage... somehow 1986 Cardinals in between were last.

 

Here are the numbers on base, steals, runs

 

'85 .339 316 750

'86 .309 260 601

'87 .340 248 798

 

Any team that can get on base .340 and slug .380 probably scores 730 runs with average baserunning and 750 with great baserunning.

 

Teams just can't apparently get on base anymore because of the pitching and defense... Like I think if Jays went 50 less homers but got on base at .340 they would score more runs... but that is not happening this day and age.

86 Cardinals stole 260 but only 600 runs

87 Cardinals went down a bit in steals, but up 200 in runs.

The Old Cardinals from the White Rat days used to have top notch defense, but they backed it up with great speed to make up for their slap and go hitters. We can't make that claim.

It was actually all about on base percentage. 85 and 87 Cardinals led league in on base percentage... somehow 1986 Cardinals in between were last.

Here are the numbers on base, steals, runs

'85 .339 316 750

'86 .309 260 601

'87 .340 248 798

Any team that can get on base .340 and slug .380 probably scores 730 runs with average baserunning and 750 with great baserunning.

Teams just can't apparently get on base anymore because of the pitching and defense... Like I think if Jays went 50 less homers but got on base at .340 they would score more runs... but that is not happening this day and age.

You seem to suggest that the negative numbers come from Vlad and Kirk choosing to not take the extra base when they could have. That could be, or are the negative numbers simply because they are slow and couldn't take the extra base? The latter would make more sense, especially with Kirk.

Just looked it up and Vlad's sprint speed is 45th percentile and his baserunning score is 1st percentile ! lol. Kirk's sprint is 4th and baserunning 6th percentile.

So Vlad should be able to clean up his baserunning a lot. Kirk is what he is.

I would love to see some data on reliability and the variance of outcome for minor league players projected to big league stats. At the very least, when you run those statistical models, Roden must have a much wider array of possible outcomes (both very positive and very negative) than someone like Teo who has a very established mlb track record.

 

I believe in quant supported decisions, but there is no way in hell that I'm going with Roden over Teoscar when I absolutely need 2 WAR to eek into the playoffs. That's not saying we'll eek into the playoffs, but that's what Atkins is aiming for.

The counter point is IF the mean projection for Roden is true (2 WAR) but variance is higher, Roden's ceiling is higher and if Jays are projected for like 83 wins or something, they actually are better off with the variance.

I say IF projection for Roden is true.... however why wouldn't it be? Why would the guys that make projection systems not adjust somehow if projections don't work for minor players or certain types of players.

Wagner basically projects to be Spencer Horwitz, a year younger, with better exit velos and a bunch of MiLB options.

That's pretty reasonable. One thing I do wonder is how meaningful Horwitz 400 or so MLB ABs are. My thinking was that Horwitz is safer because of 400 MLB abs and more triple a at bats so get Spencer back so the Jays have a safer option while the Pirates have more upside and 2 cracks at the random player lottery.

According to Steamer, Wagner and Horwitz are projected to be similar though.

However do people believe that? Like related the Roden/Teoscar comparison. Do people believe their projections are similar? People on the board seem to value MLB experience way more than the projection systems do.

That is crazy he hasn't been offered this coming off batting cleanup for the world series champs. Like wtf lol.

 

He deserves a 4th year based on the leverage he should have but would obviously prefer a 3 year deal imo.

He is only projected for 2.5 WAR for 150 games. Alan Roden is projected for 2 WAR for 150 games.

How reliable and how biased are those projections ? Projection could be unreliable but not biased (meaning could be off 2 WAR but Roden is 0-4 and Teoscar 0.5 to 4.5) ?

Or could be more reliable to Teoscar (2-3) but less reliable for Roden (0-4). If that is the case Roden actually has a higher ceiling.

Or the projection could be positive bias for minor league players (meaning Roden projection is too high). I think a lot of posters would assume the projection is too high for Roden... but... if BJMB poster know that why don't the projection people?

Need to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the projection systems for major and minor league players to talk sensibly about Teoscar contract in view of the other options like Roden.

Why would they trade back for Howritz? Are you being serious?

Who is the DH and backup/2026 first basemen? Howritz projects to be 2 WAR in 110 games, better per game than Teoscar who is projected 2.5 in 150

Howritz is projected to be Nathaniel Lowe. Would you take Lowe if he was available?

How, pray tell, can a player be good, cheap, and not cost much?

 

Manaea might just be really good now

 

At this point I will take anything. Big trade, big signing, selling Vlad, I don't even care. Just do stuff and I dont mean sign another Justin Turner in two months.

Need a younger, left handed, Justin Turner. I wonder what Pittsburgh would want for Spencer Horwitz. I guess this should have been formulated as part of a three player trade, but maybe Jays didn't even know Horwitz was going to Pittsburgh? Maybe Jays had a thought they'd sign another DH.

Wagner and Loperfido for Howritz? Pittsburgh gets two players with more defensive versatility and similar ceiling, Jays get a bat that has more of a track record, a DH for 2025, and possible Vlad replacement for 2026.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/isaac-paredes-670623?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

His expected home runs are NUTS.

 

He hit 19 home runs last year. His xHR with the Orioles is just 6. With the Astros it's 26. I know he's a dead pull hitter but I've never seen anything like this.

That doesn't quite make sense... half his games are on the road... I guess the number of road games in different parks is different with different teams but shouldn't be that extreme.

He is making between 31-35 million this year. Vlad has always gotten 85% off what Soto gets, coming off of years 40% or less as valuable in WAR... now he's going into final Arb with a higher bbref WAR and 90% as high fWAR, and better traditional stats then Soto had going into final arb.

Soto went into free agency with 36 bWAR. If Vlad has a good offensive year and cleans up his baserunning, defense, and takes a few more walks he can go into free agency with 85% of Soto's lifetime bWAR and an equivalent final two years.

I know people say 'easier said than done', however I think we are in a new era here. If agents and players start realizing that contracts are based on WAR, they are going to take a closer look at the formulas, and clean up their game to maximize the WAR score.

So if it is so easy why not do it allready? Listen to Pat and Buck for a few games. Ballplayers traditionally believe things that aren't WAR friendly. And maybe only now, with 10 years of WAR and contracts being decided on it, will it maybe become more of a thought in how players approach the game. I totally think it is possible for players to change their games a bit, when they realize it is better for the team and their wallets to maximize WAR scores, and as they understand how they are calculated they will adjust their game.

My prediction is Vlad gets 8 WAR this year, with a good hitting season, a more patient approach and combined with cleaning up the baserunning and defense to Soto level. This will lead to a 700 million + contract

I donÂ’t think youÂ’ll get as much back as you think. If he had 2 years left or signed then maybe but heÂ’s making 22+m and you only get one year and then heÂ’s hitting FA.

He is making between 31-35 million this year. Vlad has always gotten 85% off what Soto gets, coming off of years 40% or less as valuable in WAR... now he's going into final Arb with a higher bbref WAR and 90% as high fWAR, and better traditional stats then Soto had going into final arb.

I don't know why anyone would want to be in San Francisco right now considering how much of a s*** hole its turned into since they decriminalized a lot of drugs. Like it's so bad. I love the Bay Area its so sad to see what happened to it.

Last time I was in Toronto I literally saw people s***ing in Queens park. There were multiple tents there and people just casually doing their morning business. The Tim Horton's nearby had all seating removed and bathrooms deadlocked. Obviously was once a normal Tim Horton's that had actually people sitting, talking, but all seats had to be now removed because of loitering.

San Francisco may also be bad. NY City and Boston in my experience do not have those problems (edit: to the same extent I mean, obviously any area of millions of people have some people s***ing in public.... but some big cities have more of this than others).

If Burnes is insulted by people s***ing in public he needs be in a) Texas, Kansas City, c) Pittsburgh, d) Boston (sorry Grant, Boston is clean and well run, the home of Havard, of the Boston Marathon, of the nicest people in the world, a place of loyalty, ethics and the last example of we have of a functional liberal city).

Emotionally it seems that a team that has run it's course, has run it's course, and this team like the 94 Jays, or the 2017 Jays has run it's course and the next good Jays team will be a different team....

but you never know. Vlad/Giminez/Bo/Varsho/Kirk/Springer all have a 3 year peak of at least 4 WAR... so their 'ceiling' is still high I guess.

Bombshell report about Mike Elias refusing to spend money that Orioles ownership is greenlighting.

 

Interesting if this is true... I assume Elias thinks the current market is nuts so dumb to get involved. And it is nuts but the only thing that will ever stop it is a financial crisis.

Today's nutty contract are tomorrow's good deals because everything just keeps going up. Nothing will ever stop it and you are damn fool Elias for not buying, buying buying right now while the prices are cheap.

NVIDIA stock price is 137 and will be 1500 in 3 years.

Bitcoin is 100,000 and will be 800,000 in 4 years

Canadian average house price is 850,000 and will be 2.65 million in 4 years

Top MLB contract is 760 million, or 50 million a year and will by 1.8 billion, 90 million a year in 3 years

If Elias thinks that any price can every go down, that any even minor recession can happen he is no genius... Elias is dumb, the smart people are grabbing everything they can before it goes up even more. I am sorry for claiming he was genius. Just another fool who thinks he can call the market. Prices go up. Only up. THere is no down.

He's gonna go to the Giants so it doesn't matter.

 

...I too have confirmed that it might be 90% true.

Would not doubt the Jays offered 7 252 and Giants get him for 7 240.... but good for the Jays for helping these guys earn a bit more money...

Or maybe not. If you believe Jays beat reporters they are not playing this game, but the agents are just starting s***. Maybe Jays offerred 6 - 200, and agent started the 7 250 rumor to get him 7 240 from Giants.

He's gonna go to the Giants so it doesn't matter.

 

...I too have confirmed that it might be 90% true.

Would not doubt the Jays offered 7 252 and Giants get him for 7 240.... but good for the Jays for helping these guys earn a bit more money...

Or maybe not. If you believe Jays beat reporters they are not playing this game, but the agents are just starting s***. Maybe Jays offerred 6 - 200, and agent started the 7 250 rumor to get him 7 240 from Giants.

Only bad things happen to the Jays. Don't put any money on it.

I assume you are perhaps sick of the board nonsense (of which I have been responsible for my share) and are now playing grumpy old man.... but...

1993 - randomly got best years from Molitor, Olerud, Alomar and a 4 month stretch of prime Tony Fernandez to win World Series

1998 - a bunch of young players gave an unexpected run at wild card

2003 - MVP and Cy Young seasons from Delgado/Wells/Halladay led to fun season

2010 - Bautista starts new era out of no where

2015 - Greatest two month run in franchise history

2020 - Trudeau closes border and locks up BJMB members then BJMB starts censorship campaign against it's own, but little playoff run gives moments of Joy

2021 - 2 MVP like seasons and a Cy Young... kind of similar to 2003 in a way.

2022 - Decent team wins WC1 and get some home playoff games which are kind of destructive to mental health but OK ride to get to that point....

So occasionally good things happen, some random and unexpected, but problem is rivals have too much money and/or Brains

Random good things could happen next year too.... or maybe not.

They also had elite pitching which it doesn't look like the Jays will have coming into the season. Also the AL East is a dogfight all year.

But the argument is whether adding Giminez's 4 WAR will really 'help' as compared to adding a big homerun hitter. And the answer should be WAR is WAR, and the only way Giminez wouldn't help (assuming he hits 4 WAR) is if Giminez's WAR isn't real because of issues with how baserunning and defense are measured.

Let's say Jays were project to score 680 runs and give up 700. Say Giminez saved 20 runs but loses 5 on offense... then Jays now projected for 675 scored and 680 given up. Giminez helps if fangraphs WAR is true, and if Giminez can continue to perform at a 4 WAR level (heavy on defense and baserunning).

He's owed 94 mil over the next 5 years. We couldn't spend 94 over 5 years on a better player. 19 mil year.

.... not if you believe his fangraphs page (including projections).

Gimenez vs Ernie Clement

 

According to the fangraphs website Gimenez having his worst season was more valuable then Clement and is 4 years younger, but more expensive. Gimenez is an above average bat lifetime.

Trade comes down to 2 things.

1. Are Gimenez lifetime offensive stats real and can he hit OK age 26 to 29 ? Like he is above average hitter lifetime if you average out the highs (not real) and lows (maybe not real either)... or maybe the lows are real.

2. Is Howritz better than his projections? Like Horwitz hit .330 .450 .490 in Buffalo, but because of weirdness in minor league strikezone and his advanced (for a prospect) age he is like a projected .260 .340 .400 mlb hitter and maybe 2.5 WAR guy (if defense is sort of not bad).... that is replaceable. I guess the risk is their is something to the .330 .450 .500 Buffalo line (Like that line doesn't grow on trees, before comparing to Rowdy Tellez check Rowdy's 2 years in Buffalo).

It is absolutely f***ing hilarious that the Toronto Blue Jays offered Shohei Ohtani $700M and didn't get him, then offered Juan Soto $760M and didn't get him either.

 

Just the most elite Price Enforcing GM in the sport. There is no other Price Enforcing GM who compares to Ross.

 

A complete weapon of a Bridesmaid.

Next year will be third year in a row offering 700 million contract (in fact 800 million) and not signing player.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2025 - .330 39 129 .410 .620 world record for hard hit balls, stays conservative on the basepaths. Cleans up D. 8.1 WAR. Agents frame him as Soto part 2.....

Dec 9th 2025 - Guerrero headed to Boston on record 15 year 790 million dollar contract. Insiders say Blue Jays offered to give Guerrero first 800 million dollar contract, but Guerrero took 10 million less to sign with Red Sox. Better opportunity to win and team with Devers were deciding factors.

Raptors already have their superstar! Dick!

I don't follow NBA that close but isn't Scottie Barnes right on track on a superstar path through age 23? A little more improvement and he'll be averaging a triple double.... though his 3 point percentage isn't that high, which maybe puts him below super star level tier in the modern NBA.

If we didn't sign a single free agent we'd be projected to get average or better production out in the field everywhere except for the Buffalo Boy slop we'd be trotting out in LF. The rotation wouldn't be bad either. The bullpen would be horrid.

Roden, Loperfido, Davis Schneider, Lukes, Clase

You should be able to use advanced analytics to optimize matchups and allocate playing time and get a decent player out of that.

Lukes could be the left field Ernie Clement. Not saying he is, but modern analytics using bat speed*, batted ball profile and other metrics should be able to pick up who is playing well before the traditional stats and you can separate slop from a decent player.

* bat speed may not work for some of the Buffalo Boys as there is some evidence (Kwan) that low bat speed can lead to average to slightly above average hitting for some players (though this type of player needs D to be a regular)

He hits well there and is through age 25 very similar to Manny Ramirez if you adjust for era (wRC+ similar).

 

Seems like someone the Red Sox would want to get to repeat the Manny Ramirez experience, and seems Vlad would love to team up with Devers. So can see it happening.

Hard to believe but Vlad is really right with Ramirez and Cabrera through age 25. What is special about those two is they took it the next level age 26 through 33 went like from 140 wRC+ guys to 170 with a run of triple crown like seasons, (with Cabrera actually winning one).

For some reason hard to picture Vlad being consistent for 7 years... but maybe with the Red Sox he will.