Spanky99

Hah...

Same, this year for me has been absolutely brutal.

This season is by far the worst in concern of expectations/payroll and performance, it really isn't close.

Schneider said he wasn't available during his presser.

lol

Ernie Bomb!

Horwitz on a crazy stretch.

This game is flying by, hah!

Koooooch!

RA9 is bWAR... rWAR is for the hitters and yes, it's garbage.

I’d love to report that we’ve got it all figured out, but we’re not quite there yet. There is definitely more intel on which players each team likes (though the Guardians still remain very, very tight-lipped). But as Jim noted in his mock last week, it’s the money that’s largely being figured out now. That and the medical reports being digested will really help determine who goes where. This week’s projection is a snapshot of how it could go down, with hopes that we’ll have even more concrete information for that final mock right before the Draft. The Day 1 preview show will begin at 6 p.m. ET (5 p.m. CT) followed by the Draft on MLB Network and ESPN, and can also be viewed on MLB.TV, MLB.com and in the MLB App. 1. Guardians: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State (No. 1) The Guardians are rightfully doing due diligence on a pretty wide range of players still, so they can adjust as they continue to get information about what players will sign for. As we discussed on this week’s MLB Pipeline Podcast, I conducted a survey of scouting directors included in this week’s newsletter on who they thought Cleveland will take. Bazzana received 15 of the 20 votes, one of the reasons why he remains in this spot this week. But West Virginia’s JJ Wetherholt did get four votes, with many teams following the logic that Wetherholt will cost less, and if you’re confident his hamstrings won’t be an issue, there isn’t that much separation between the two infielders. Georgia’s Charlie Condon got the other vote as the perception that he won’t take any kind of discount continues to lessen buzz around him going at the top. 2. Reds: Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia (No. 2) It sounds like the debate is continuing in Cincinnati about which college player to take here. I’m going with Condon, but Florida’s Jac Caglianone is very much in the mix. Wake Forest’s Chase Burns is in the conversation if they’re looking at pitching, with Arkansas lefty Hagen Smith not completely out of that picture either. 3. Rockies: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida (No. 3) I’m going according to chalk here, the top three players going in the top three spots. It does seem like the hitters are in the lead, though Burns and Smith (in that order) are still being discussed. The Rockies might also kick the tires on cutting a deal with one of the college hitters projected to go more in the middle of the first round, someone like Oklahoma State’s Carson Benge. 4. A’s: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M (No. 8) While this is likely Bazzana’s floor (and landing spot if he doesn’t go 1-1), he’s off the board in this scenario. That leaves the A’s to look at other college options with Montgomery, Wetherholt and Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz the bats and Burns and Smith the arms under consideration. 5. White Sox: JJ Wetherholt, SS/2B, West Virginia (No. 4) If he doesn’t go No. 1, this could be a very good landing spot for the middle infielder, though the White Sox are also digging into Kurtz, Smith and Burns on the college side along with the top two high school hitters -- Konnor Griffin and Bryce Rainer. 6. Royals: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest (No. 7) While there’s still the possibility the Royals go for one of the college arms here, with Smith having the edge over Burns, Kurtz’s legit big league power might be too much for them to pass up and would get to Kansas City faster than one of the prep bats available they might also be considering. 7. Cardinals: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas (No. 5) This seems to be a spot where college arms land, though they might still be interested in one of the college bats taken above, with Smith getting the edge over Burns this week. 8. Angels: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest (No. 6) The Angels have gone with the “quick to the big leagues” college hitter the past two Drafts in the first round, and they could still do that and save money with some of the hitters you’ll see below. But it might be very hard to look past Burns’ frontline starter potential, and he also might not take long before being ready to get big league hitters out. 9. Pirates: James Tibbs, OF, Florida State (No. 12) If they want to go the high school hitter route, the Pirates will definitely consider Griffin or Rainer here. They’ll also consider Tennessee's Christian Moore as an alternative college bat and East Carolina right-hander Trey Yesavage should they shift focus to a college pitcher. 10. Nationals: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake, Calif. (No. 10) While Rainer certainly could go higher than this, it seems like he wouldn’t go much beyond here as the high school scouts seem to feel has the best pure hit tool. It’s certainly not out of the question that the Nats go with the toolsy Griffin, allowing Rainer to go next. 11. Tigers: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep, Miss. (No. 9) This is a spot that keeps getting high school buzz, with a strong chance they’ll take whichever of the top prep bats is still available. It’s also the first spot high school lefty Cam Caminiti has been mentioned. 12. Red Sox: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee (No. 13) The Red Sox would love it for one of the dozen players selected above to reach them, and let’s face it, that usually happens. But in this scenario, Moore appears to be the best of the next group that is very college-hitter heavy. Boston might also look at Florida State’s Cam Smith from that demographic or Yesavage from the college arm bucket. 13. Giants: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS, Ariz. (No. 15) This connection is made so often it’s almost impossible to believe it, but there is interest for sure. They could also look at Yesavage or one of the remaining college bats like Smith, Benge, North Carolina’s Vance Honeycutt or LSU’s Tommy White. 14. Cubs: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina (No. 11) The Cubs appear to be leaning college here, with the arm getting the nod for right now over hitters like Smith, Honeycutt and Wake Forest’s Seaver King. 15. Mariners: Seaver King, 3B/OF, Wake Forest (No. 17) This could be the end of the three-year run of high school hitters taken by the Mariners in the first round, but King could be the choice if they still want a bat. It could be a good debate in the Draft room between him and Mississippi State switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje, while Illinois prep right-hander Ryan Sloan is still in the mix. 16. Marlins: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State (No. 14) The Marlins are still sending out college hitter vibes with Smith being considered along with Benge and Kentucky’s Ryan Waldschmidt. If they shift to arms, it sounds like it could be Cijntje from the college set or Sloan if they go with a high schooler as they did last year. 17. Brewers: Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina (No. 22) More college bats here, with Honeycutt and Benge having an edge right now over White. 18. Rays: Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State (No. 18) Sticking with the theme here, with Benge the choice over Waldschmidt. Cijntje and Sloan are also in the mix. 19. Mets: Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS, Ark. (No. 27) This has long been another college hitter landing spot, and they still could consider hitters like Mississippi State’s Dakota Jordan or Kansas State’s Kaelen Culpepper, but there’s more buzz that things might be leaning toward high school hitting, with Caldwell joining prep shortstops like Theo Gillen or Kellon Lindsey atop their board. Caldwell might only be 5-foot-9, but the Mets haven’t shied away from undersized prep bats in the past (see Williams, Jett). 20. Blue Jays: Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky (No. 23) The Blue Jays prefer a hitter in this spot and wouldn’t be upset if one of the ones just taken slips down to them. Waldschmidt could lead a pack that includes White and Sam Houston catcher Walker Janek. 21. Twins: Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State (No. 31) So many college hitters, with the Twins potentially favoring Culpepper or Tennessee third baseman Billy Amick over someone like White in this spot. 22. Orioles: Caleb Lomavita, C, California (No. 33) It’s possible the O’s would love for Lomavita to be available with their next pick at 32, but he might not be there, so we’ll give him the edge over the other college hitters still available or pitchers like Cijntje or Iowa’s Brody Brecht. 23. Dodgers: William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic HS, La. (No. 16) The Dodgers appear to want an arm here, and there’s some internal support for Schmidt, the top-ranked high school right-hander in our Top 250. Brecht could be the choice if they opt for a college pitcher. 24. Braves: Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa (No. 21) The hard-throwing Brecht gets the nod over Cijntje from the college pitching sector. If they want a high school pitcher, California prepster Braylon Doughty’s name comes up quite a bit here. 25. Padres: Ryan Sloan, RHP, York HS, Ill. (No. 19) Maybe it’s too easy to slot in a high schooler here since the Padres (as both Jim and I have said numerous times) have gone that route with their last eight first-rounders. But I’m doing it anyway, with the Padres able to choose from a group that includes Sloan, Doughty and lefty Kash Mayfield on the pitching side and Lindsey or Gillen among the hitters. 26. Yankees: Jurrangelo Cijntje, RHP/LHP, Mississippi State (No. 25) This could be a terrific scenario for the Yankees, who sound like they do prefer an arm and like Cijntje. They could also consider Doughty on the prep side, stick at Mississippi State with Jordan or go to LSU and White if they opt for a college hitter. 27. Phillies: Tommy White, 3B, Louisiana State (No. 20) The Phillies have taken high schoolers in the first round four years in a row, but could this year break the streak? A spirited conversation over a college bat like White vs. high school hitters like Gillen and Lindsey or a prep arm like Mayfield or Doughty will likely take place. 28. Astros: Theo Gillen, SS/2B, Westlake HS, Texas (No. 28) Right now, a prep infielder like Gillen might have the edge over the college catchers (Janek and Stanford’s Malcolm Moore) or an infielder like Amick. 29. D-backs: Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford (No. 26) The D-backs have a lot of picks coming up here and can mix and match how they please. Left-handed-hitting catchers are often a hot commodity and Moore’s name does pop up all over the end of the first round and sandwich round. 30. Rangers: Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston (No. 24) The three college catchers could go in any order in the back half of the first round, and both Lomavita and Janek’s names pop up in conversations even higher than that. 31. D-backs: Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee Senior HS, Fla. (No. 29) 32. Orioles: Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee (No. 32) 33. Twins: Wyatt Sanford, SS, Independence HS, Texas (No. 35) 34. Brewers: Griff O'Ferrall, SS, Virginia (No. 38) 35. D-backs: Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City HS, Okla. (No. 30) 36. Guardians: Braylon Doughty, RHP, Chaparral HS, Calif. (No. 36) 37. Pirates: Bryce Meccage, RHP, The Pennington School, N.J. (No. 51) 38. Rockies: Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State (No. 34) 39. Royals: PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville HS, S.C. (No. 43)

Much of what I was hearing two weeks ago remains the same buzz I’m hearing today, so our Mock Draft 5.0 looks fairly similar to our previous version. I want to avoid switching players just for the sake of it, but I also don’t want a repetition of player/team pairings to signal any extra confidence in the pick. This is simply my best guess for how things could play out as it stands today. 1. Guardians — JJ Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia No changes here from last week. Some in the industry continue to think Wetherholt is the pick, though I’m fairly confident Cleveland has a decent-sized pool of players they’re considering as they figure out the best ways to work through their draft board. Oregon State’s Travis Bazzana is possible, as is Georgia’s Charlie Condon, who is younger than both middle infielders and could grade out fairly well in Cleveland’s model. Jac Caglianone and Konnor Griffin both get linked with Cleveland, but both feel less likely to me at the moment. 2. Reds — Charlie Condon, OF, Georgia It sounds like the Reds are considering each of the five college players I mentioned above. Condon, Caglianone and Burns look like the favorites of the group with the smaller middle infielders Wetherholt and Bazzana a bit further back, but certainly still in consideration. I’ve consistently heard the Reds linked with hitters more than pitchers, so I’ll stick with the top player on our draft board in Condon. 3. Rockies — Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest The read on the Rockies is consistent from last week, with this feeling like the most likely landing spot for a pitcher of any the teams picking inside the top five. It sounds like Colorado is interested in both Condon and Caglianone, too. In this scenario Cags is available, but I’ve heard the Burns/Rockies connection too much to not pull the trigger. 4. A’s — Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State There have been a lot of college names linked with the A’s. Whichever bats don’t go before should be in play here, with Bazzana being the best available in this scenario. It sounds like this could be the first realistic landing spot for Texas A&M outfielder Braden Montgomery, though I’m assuming that would be on an underslot deal. There are fewer mentions of either of the high school hitters with Oakland, and while Kurtz was mentioned earlier in the process for them, I haven’t heard that link quite as much recently. 5. White Sox — Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida Things could open up with the White Sox, as I’ve heard both hitting and pitching profiles linked to them. It’s mostly college names, though it does sound like the club could be interested in Konnor Griffin. I’m guessing a college player they like will be available here though, whether that’s Wetherholt if he doesn’t go No. 1 or, in this scenario, Caglianone. Caglianone’s floor seems quite a bit higher than fellow first baseman Nick Kurtz at this stage, and a strong finish to his season in front of plenty of decision-makers seems to have paid off for him. 6. Royals — Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif. I’m making my first change from last week’s mock with the Royals going with Rainer instead of Hagen Smith (who I still think the Royals like quite a bit). The trio of Rainer, Smith and Griffin feel like the current favorites at this spot given how the board has panned out. I think the team could be intrigued with Caglianone if he were available, and I’ve heard Montgomery linked to the Royals recently, though he seems a lot less likely to me than all of the other names I’ve mentioned. 7. Cardinals — Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas I don’t have Smith falling too far in this mock, with Rainer and Smith basically just flipped from the last version. It sounds like the Cardinals would be interested in either of the top two college arms if they’re available, and it would be hard to rule out Griffin, Montgomery or Nick Kurtz with this pick, as well. 8. Angels — Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee The Angels are consistently tied to fast-moving college bats (gee, I wonder why), and both Montgomery and Kurtz are available here from the top tier of players. However, no player did better for himself in the college world series than Christian Moore, and he could potentially fit the bill as both a fast-moving player and an underslot option (though, he won’t last too much longer after this if this isn’t the pick). One name that was surprising to hear with the Angels is prep lefthander Cam Caminiti. The Angels had some heavy hitters in to see Caminiti’s last start, and he might be a real consideration for this pick even though his profile would be a real change of pace from what the Angels have done in recent years. 9. Pirates — Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M There’s a lot of noise about the Pirates scouting up the top two high schoolers pretty heavily. Griffin is still on the board in this scenario, but so is Montgomery and Kurtz, both of whom they have been linked to. If Montgomery doesn’t get taken by Oakland, Kansas City or St. Louis, this feels like one of his most likely homes inside the top 10. 10. Nationals — Konnor Griffin, OF/SS, Jackson Prep, Flowood, Miss. In this scenario, the Nationals have their pick of two starkly different profiles left from the top tier of 10 players: Huge upside, tools and athleticism with Konnor Griffin or a polished college hitter with a first base profile in Nick Kurtz. The former is definitely more of what the Nationals have done in the past, and it sounds like Washington has scouted the Rainer/Griffin duo as heavily as any team. ECU righthander Trey Yesavage could make some sense here if they want an arm. 11. Tigers — Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS, Scottsdale, Ariz. The Tigers continue to be heavily linked to Caminiti, and I see no real reason to move off this pick even with Nick Kurtz sliding out of the top 10 in this scenario. It sounds like Caminiti has really popped on a number of teams’ models, and he remains the favorite to be the first high school pitcher off the board. 12. Red Sox — Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina It’s the same group of names for the Red Sox as in the previous mock. That includes Honeycutt, Christian Moore (if he were available), Trey Yesavage (if the team wants to go with a pitcher), or others like James Tibbs III, Cam Smith and Carson Benge. It does seem like Honeycutt’s floor could be lower than all of the other hitters mentioned here, but I think this is a real landing spot. Would Boston pass on Kurtz if he were available here given the presence of Triston Casas? I’m not sure. 13. Giants — Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest I’m guessing Kurtz doesn’t get much further than this if he is to slide out of the top 10, but at the moment, he is the player that seems most likely to fall out if there’s a surprise name that jumps up. This feels like a great outcome for San Francisco considering Kurtz’ hitting ability, batting eye and power potential. Others that could make sense include Caminiti, Yesavage and college bats like James Tibbs III, Cam Smith, Carson Benge, Seaver King and Vance Honeycutt. 14. Cubs — James Tibbs III, OF, Florida State College performers are tied to the Cubs most commonly, and the best available of that phylum of player is Tibbs III, who has a chance to go as high as No. 8 and probably won’t last too long beyond this pick. This feels like the high-water point for someone like Malcolm Moore, who would be the first catcher off the board if he was the selection here in this scenario (something I wouldn’t have expected and am not sure is too likely). 15. Mariners — Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina As mentioned in my previous mock, I believe this is close to the floor for Yesavage. If Yesavage is gone and the Mariners want an arm, I think the No. 4 college arm on the board, Jurrangelo Cijntje, is a real option here. Other names that make sense include Slade Caldwell, Carson Benge, Cam Smith and Seaver King. I’m still not sure if Brody Brecht would be a fit this high or not. He is gaining some steam late in the process, but I’m not sure it’s quite this high. 16. Marlins — Carson Benge, OF/RHP, Oklahoma State Will it be back-to-back years where our mock draft world is fooled by rumors of a college hitter rumors to Miami? It Maybe, but that’s the commonly talked about profile for the Marlins and it’s also the best available profile on the board in this scenario with players like Benge, Cam Smith, Seaver King and Caleb Lomavita also still available. Does Ryan Waldschmidt fit into that tier of hitters? He might, though I haven’t heard him linked to the Marlins specifically. 17. Brewers — Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State Smith has action throughout the teens, and it doesn’t seem like he should be on the board too much longer than this given his impressive season and physical tools. If not Smith, other college bats like King, Benge, Lomavita and Honeycutt could make sense. William Schmidt also makes sense for the Brewers (but it sounds like not with this pick), and on the college side, this is starting to become Jurrangelo Cijntje territory. So, there are a lot of options for Milwaukee here. 18. Rays — Jurrangelo Cijntje, BHP, Mississippi State It’s always difficult for me to rule out a single demographic for the Rays. I think they’ll simply take whoever they view is the best player on the board regardless of perceived risk for the demographic. Their somewhat surprising Xavier Isaac first-round pick from 2022 is looking pretty good right about now. Cijntje fits here on talent, as do all of the college hitters on the board in this range. High school hitters like Slade Caldwell and Theo Gillen might start to come in play more around this spot on the board, too. 19. Mets — Seaver King, SS/OF, Wake Forest I’ve mentioned King in a number of spots before this pick, and I think there’s a reasonable chance he doesn’t make it here. I’m not sure I see him lasting too far into the 20s, so it’s as good a time as any to get him off the board. Carson Benge is a name I’ve heard tied to the Mets, and power bats like Tommy White, Billy Amick, Dakota Jordan and Vance Honeycutt might make some sense, as well. 20. Blue Jays — Caleb Lomavita, C, California I’ll stick with Lomavita here, just as in our previous mock. I’m still expecting him to go somewhere in the middle of the first round, most likely starting around 15 and perhaps getting into the early 20s. It sounds like this could be another potential landing spot for Malcolm Moore, and players like Tommy White and Billy Amick could fit, as well. Later names for the Blue Jays could include Cole Mathis, Bryce Meccage and Canadian prep catcher Nathan Flewelling. 21. Twins — Theo Gillen, SS, Westlake HS, Austin, Tex. This is more of a talent fit for the Twins than a specific Theo Gillen link to them. I think Gillen’s likely range of outcomes is anywhere throughout the 20s. Billy Amick could be a fit here, but they might have a shot to get him with their next pick in the supplemental round, too. I wonder if they would take a shot on William Schmidt, though that one also feels more likely with their second pick. 22. Orioles — Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa Brecht has been getting some late helium. He’s a player some teams in this range are out on for their first selection, while others are more willing to take on the high-risk nature of his profile. The Orioles have been hitter-heavy in the first round, but that could change with them picking in the 20s now. If they do go pitching with this pick, I think it’ll be a college arm. There’s not another college arm that makes more sense than Brecht here. Malcolm Moore or Kaelen Culpepper could be fits here, too. 23. Dodgers — William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic HS, Baton Rouge, La. While there are some teams in front of the Dodgers who seem intrigued with Schmidt, this seems to be the earliest he’s likely to come off the board. There’s a decent chance he gets paid overslot in the supplemental round if he isn’t the pick here. I think Honeycutt would be a great fit here if he’s still somehow on the board given the Dodgers hitting development (this would also be true of the Orioles one spot ahead). But the Dodgers are also linked to tons of preps including Kash Mayfield, Luke Dickerson, Kellon Lindsey and Slade Caldwell. With no second round pick and the second smallest bonus pool of any team, don’t rule the Dodgers out for a curveball here. 24. Braves — Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky Carson Benge, Jurrangelo Cijntje and Ryan Waldschmidt are players commonly linked with the Braves. In this scenario, only one of that trio is still available, so Waldschmidt remains the pick with Atlanta. This is a specific situation where it’s worth pointing out that, despite Waldschmidt being the pick with the Braves for three straight mock drafts, my confidence in him being the name isn’t any higher. It’s simply a pick that makes sense in a range where teams expect Waldschmit to come off the board. 25. Padres — Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City (Okla.) HS Just like the previous mock, it’s been all high school profiles linked to San Diego. Any of the prep pitchers slated to go in the 20s make sense (Schmidt, Mayfield, Ryan Sloan), as do most of the high school hitters in this range (Gillen, Slade Caldwell, Kellon Lindsey, Luke Dickerson, Wyatt Sanford). 26. Yankees — Luke Dickerson, SS, Morris Knolls HS, Rockaway, N.J. The Yankees are one of a handful of teams who seem to have a lot of interest in Dickerson, who is this year’s Jackson Merrill/Sammy Stafura, Northeast/mid-Atlantic prep profile who gained tons of steam later in the process. Based on the number of teams linked heavily to Dickerson, it sounds like he might not get back to the Yankees’ next pick at 53 if they pass on him here. Big power profiles like Tommy White, Billy Amick and Dakota Jordan could make sense, as well. 27. Phillies — Ryan Sloan, RHP, York HS, Elmhurst, Ill. The Phillies are another team linked with Kash Mayfield, but he’s not on the board in this scenario. Ryan Sloan is, and a few weeks ago there was some chatter that he could go off the board as high as 15-20, so it’s hard to imagine him staying on the board much longer. Philadelphia is one of the teams who will take a shot on a high school arm in the first round. Brody Brecht could make sense if he’s still on the board. 28. Astros — Tommy White, 3B, LSU Tommy White should have realistic options starting in the back of the teens into the 20s. Falling to 28 feels like reasonable value for one of college baseball’s premier sluggers, even if he does have some defensive profile questions. Perhaps Houston would prefer going with a college catcher in Malcolm Moore or Walker Janek, and there are a few high school shortstops who are starting to seem more likely to come off the board around this range, too, like Kellon Lindsey, Wyatt Sanford, Carter Johnson and Tyson Lewis. I started hearing more buzz about high school first baseman/outfielder PJ Morlando in recent days (maybe his draft combine BP was just that loud), and Houston is one of the teams linked to him (though I am not sure if it’s for this pick). 29. D-backs — Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston State Janek could come off the board as many as 10 spots in front of this pick, but there’s been some chatter about him maybe slipping down the board a bit. This would be as good a landing spot for him as any in the back third of the first round considering Arizona’s huge bonus pool. Janek is probably the best defensive catcher in the draft. If Kash Mayfield is availabl, he could be a fit here, and I think Arizona could also be a team that makes sense for Luke Dickerson if he’s still available. 30. Rangers — Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford Moore has a few potential landing spots in front of this pick, but the 28-38 range feels like a more realistic expectation for where he is going to go based on his season and some questions about how likely he is to stick at catcher. The Rangers are one of the teams linked with him. There are a lot of players linked to the Rangers that I expect to be off the board at this pick, including Jurrangelo Cijntje, Caleb Lomavita and Theo Gillen. 31. D-backs — Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee HS, Wauchula, Fla. Lindsey could go as high as the late teens, but the late 20s or supplemental first round feels more realistic at this point given some of the names that have more steam ahead of him. 32. Orioles — Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State I’ve continued to hear the Orioles like Culpepper, so he remains the pick in this latest mock. 33. Twins — Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee As mentioned with the Twins first pick, I think there’s some interest with Amick, and he could fit in this range of the board. It’ll be interesting to see how closely Amick and fellow college third baseman Tommy White wind up being selected. 34. Brewers — Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State The Brewers could value Jordan’s extreme exit velocity data as much as any team, and taking him with their second pick might feel a bit more comfortable than doing it at 17. 35. D-backs — Dasan Hill, LHP, Grapevine (Texas) HS Hill is one of a number of high school pitchers who I could see in this range of the board. That includes Dax Whitney, Braylon Doughty and the two prep pitchers I have coming off the board just behind the D-backs. 36. Guardians — Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS, Jonesboro, Ark. Sorry Guardians fans: It’s the same two players in this mock as the last time. I just think both players make sense for a lot of reasons with these picks. There’s a real chance Caldwell’s not available, but given the nature of this class, I’m confident there will be someone Cleveland likes to push an overslot deal to. 37. Pirates — Bryce Meccage, RHP, The Pennington (N.J.) HS Like the pick before, this one is status quo from last week. 38. Rockies — Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke Make it three in a row for similar names with similar picks. 39. Royals — David Shields, LHP, Mt. Lebanon HS, Pittsburgh There are a number of high school pitching profiles I think make sense for Kansas City at this spot. In the last mock, the player was Dax Whitney, but I think the lefthander Shields could be more likely for the Royals.

Notable movers in the Midseason top 100... JULY BIG MOVES UP IN THE JULY UPDATE Carson Williams, SS, Rays (No. 13 to No. 9) Williams’ stat line has dropped from exceptional to extremely good over the past month. That wasn’t a big shock, as we have noted that his underlying metrics hadn’t changed as much as his batting average or on-base percentage changed. But if anything, he has solidified his status as a top shortstop prospect. He’s hitting for average, getting on base, hitting for power, and he’s one of the better gloves at shortstop in the minors. Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics (No. 41 to No. 19) Wilson is a career .411 MiLB hitter right now. It’s only been 272 plate appearances, and that average will surely drop, but the underlying stats behind those numbers are almost as hard to believe. The number of breaking balls he’s swung at and missed in the strike zone this year can be counted on one hand. He’ll chase a pitch out of the zone every now and then, but there’s almost no one in the minors who can come close to his contact ability on strikes. Wilson doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard, but he knows how to grip, rip and lift a pitch in the right situations, which is why he has a .200+ isolated power in his pro career. There’s some Nick Madrigal-esque components to Wilson’s game, but those are if Madrigal had become the player many hoped to see—a contact-hitting machine who could provide defensive value and occasional pop. Xavier Isaac, 1B, Rays (No. 37 to No. 20) Isaac’s physical transformation has been as impressive as his consistency in the batter’s box. A 260-pound first baseman in high school, Isaac has slimmed down dramatically while also getting stronger. He now turns in average run times, has 13 steals in 15 attempts this year and has made the corner outfield spots a potentially viable second option in addition to his work at first base. Even more importantly, he’s one of the most well-rounded hitters in Class A. He’s projected to hit for average and power. Kevin McGonigle, SS/2B, Tigers (No. 64 to No. 26) McGonigle is only 19, but he hits like he’s a 29-year-old. McGonigle has the wonderful combination of an understanding of the strike zone combined with the ability to rarely ever swing and miss at pitches in the strike zone. He’s been the best hitter in the Florida State League and he’s also 15-for-17 on stolen bases. The pairing of McGonigle and Max Clark give the Tigers a pair of young hitting prospects to dream on. Kyle Teel, C, Red Sox (No. 43 to No. 27) Teel has quickly established himself as one of the best catching prospects in the game. He’s athletic, he can handle the physical and mental demands of the position and he’s also capable of being a middle-of-the-order bat. Brooks Lee, SS, Twins (No. 42 to No. 28) Lee’s recurring back issues linger in the back of the mind like a nagging headache. There’s always the worry that they could derail what could be. But when Lee is healthy, like he is now, he also shows why it’s easy to imagine a healthy Lee racking up 2,000 hits over the next 20 years. Lazaro Montes, OF, Mariners (No. 46 to No. 29) Montes has hit his way to High-A Everett, but he’s also showing he’s a better athlete and outfielder than expected. He’s not going to make any Seattle fans forget Ken Griffey Jr.’s defense, but he’s demonstrating he’s a very playable corner outfielder. With his hitting ability, that should be more than enough. Justin Crawford, OF, Phillies (No. 45 to No. 33) Crawford just keeps impressing with a lot of professional at-bats to go with athleticism. He will likely never be a massive home run hitter, but he is steadily improving at tapping into his power. Thomas White, LHP, Marlins (No. 70 to No. 43) There aren’t many bright spots that will be remembered from the Marlins’ 2024 season, but the development of White and Noble Meyer does provide some hope. Luke Keaschall, 2B/OF, Twins (No. 63 to No. 48) Keaschall keeps bouncing between center field, second base and DH as the Twins try to figure out where he best fits defensively. But no one mentions his glove when bringing up Keaschall, because he projects to be a plus hitter with average power. Keaschall doesn’t give pitchers a lot of ways to get him out. He can catch up to a fastball, but he also recognizes spin and destroys a changeup if the pitcher tips it at all. And he has a solid awareness of how to lay off pitches out of the zone. He’s the kind of grinder who pitchers hate, but it’s a hate born from respect. Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pirates (No. 68 to No. 51) Chandler’s stuff and consistency has ticked up. Over the past month he has a 35-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 25.1 innings. He’s looking more like a starter, and he’s showing the ability to dominate that has long been expected of him. Quinn Mathews, LHP, Cardinals (No. 95 to No. 53) Early this season, Mathews dominated Low-A, but it’s hard to be impressed when a polished college pitcher dominates the Florida State League. A bump up to the Midwest League didn’t slow him down at all. Now he’s impressing in the Double-A Texas League, and showing his stuff plays against more experienced hitters. Zebby Matthews, RHP, Twins (No. 97 to No. 54) In his first 12 outings this year, Matthews has yet to walk two batters in any game. He’s thrown 70% strikes in every one of his last eight starts. He’s a control artist, but he also has the ability to reach back for 99 mph when he needs it, and he has a trio of quality secondary offerings. Ralphy Velazquez, 1B, Guardians (No. 81 to No. 57) The Guardians moved Velazquez from catcher to first base right after drafting him. With reduced defensive demands, Velazquez’s bat has stood out. He projects to hit for average and power, and his body has improved as well. Big Moves Down In The July Update Colson Montgomery, SS, White Sox (No. 11 to No. 30) Montgomery is quite young for Triple-A, so it’s easy to be patient with his early-season struggles. Unfortunately for Montgomery and the White Sox, they haven’t gone away. Charlotte is an outstanding hitter’s park which has disguised some of Montgomery’s issues. Away from Charlotte, he’s hitting .181/.311/.370 this year. Montgomery still regularly demonstrates his plus power and he knows how to draw a walk, but he looks like a player who will need a year and a half at Triple-A before he’s big league ready. Aidan Miller, SS, Phillies (No. 20 to No. 39) Miller’s first month in High-A has been much rougher than any part of Miller’s dominating start in the Florida State League. It’s not a giant surprise, but Miller needs to show he can catch up to High-A pitching. Harry Ford, C, Mariners (No. 44 to No. 72) Ford continues to show he can get on-base. But the rest of his game has yet to make the same strides. He’s slugging .377 in the Texas League, which is just above the league average. He is extremely athletic for a catcher. He’s even stolen 21 bases in 27 tries. His defense remains a work in progress. Spencer Jones, OF, Yankees (No. 50 to No. 73) Jones is a streaky hitter who can have a week where he carries a team. The concern is he also has weeks where he strikes out in 40% or more of his plate appearances. He’s striking out 35.9% of the time in 2024. Jones has long levers and a big strike zone, but he sometimes makes it even bigger by chasing pitches above and below the zone. If Jones can work a count to get a pitch on the inner third or middle of the zone, he can punish it. He’s hitting .346/.344/.631 in those zones. But he’s hitting only .226/.219/.290 on pitches on the outer third of the strike zone, and he’s struggled against breaking balls. Orelvis Martinez, 2B/3B, Blue Jays (No. 51 to No. 74) Martinez had just made it to the majors when he was suspended for 80 games for a violation of performance enhancing drug rules. Players Added To The Top 100 Jaden Hamm, RHP, Tigers Hamm is at this point the second-best pitching prospect in the Tigers’ system, trailing only the best pitching prospect in baseball (Jackson Jobe). He’s a fast riser who should at least be a quality reliever, but with a solid chance to carve out a role as a solid mid-rotation starter. Kristian Campbell, 2B, Red Sox The Red Sox farm system has gotten significantly better in the past couple of years, and Campbell looks to be one of the best surprise success stories. He has an unconventional swing, but it really works. Yanquiel Fernandez, OF, Rockies Fernandez is another example of how players at the back of the 100 can hop on and off. We try to not overreact one way or the other, but we also want to respond to the feedback we can from scouts and front office officials. Early this season, we heard worries about Fernandez’s approach. As the weather warms up, we’re hearing more about his still potent power potential. Alex Freeland, SS, Dodgers Oh look. It’s another Dodgers hitting prospect. Freeland was a third-round pick in 2022. There were questions about whether a club-foot he had repaired as a child would limit his mobility, but it’s not slowing Freeland down at all. The switch-hitter is impressing scouts both as a hitter and in the field, where he’s Tulsa’s everyday shortstop. David Festa, RHP, Twins Festa joins Zebby Matthews, C.J. Culpepper and Simeon Woods Richardson in giving the Twins a number of pitching development success stories in 2024. Festa doesn’t throw as hard as Matthews, who is covered above in the Top 100 risers, but his fastball has life at the top of the zone, and he projects as a solid, MLB-ready starting pitcher. Hayden Birdsong, RHP, Giants Birdsong has made it to the majors for the suddenly pitching-needy Giants. Ideally, he’ll get some more time in Triple-A, as his big-league callup came after just nine innings in the Pacific Coast League. Birdsong may not be fully ready just yet, but he’s been one of the Giants’ best success stories of the past two seasons and projects as a mid-rotation MLB starter. Felnin Celesten, SS, Mariners Seattle’s bounty of young hitting prospects keeps multiplying. Michael Arroyo, Aidan Smith and others will have to wait for their Top 100 Prospects nod, but Celestin has bullied his way onto the list by being one of the standouts of the Arizona Complex League. Shane Baz, RHP, Rays Baz dropped off because he didn’t look as sharp and his stuff wasn’t as firm in his return from Tommy John surgery. He’s still not at his pre-surgery best, but his arsenal is headed in that direction, and he’s been much more consistent in his last few starts. The Rays actually have more starters than spots at this moment, but with the trade deadline looming, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a spot open up. Baz seems ready to take it. Braxton Ashcraft, RHP, Pirates The Pirates have promoted Jared Jones and Paul Skenes to the MLB rotation. Ashcraft looks to be next up, with Bubba Chandler following behind him. The Pirates’ pitching development has been a success story this year, which has helped the team hover around .500 despite offensive struggles. Ashcraft had improved his slider to go with a plus fastball. Henry Bolte, OF, Athletics Bolte has more tools than a Harbor Freight store, but he’s shown he’s able to add some skills and savvy to go with his power and speed. James Triantos, OF, Cubs The jump to Double-A has proven to be no problem for Triantos. If anything he looks to be a better hitter against more advanced pitching while also showing the ability to rack up stolen bases. Gary Gill Hill, RHP, Rays Gill Hill is one of the breakout prospects of the first half of the 2024 season. A pitcher in Low-A is a risky proposition. A pitcher in Low-A who had relatively pedestrian stuff a year ago is even riskier. But Gill Hill now shows three above-average or better pitches with a fastball that touches 98 mph, a pair of breaking balls and a changeup that is advanced for his age. Graduated Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs Noelvi Marte, 3B, Reds Dropped Out Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Braves Waldrep was placed on the injured list with a sore elbow after two rough starts in Double-A. Jordan Beck, OF, Rockies Beck has been out for a month and a half with a hand injury after struggling in his first exposure to major league pitching. Luis Perales, RHP, Red Sox Perales will miss the rest of 2024 and likely much of 2025 after suffering an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. Robby Snelling, LHP, Padres Snelling dominated the Midwest League last year on his way to earning BA’s MiLB Pitcher of the Year award. The Texas League has proven to be a much bigger challenge. Snelling’s 6.46 ERA is second-worst among Texas League qualifiers. His .306 opponents average is third-worst among Texas League pitchers. And his .533 slugging percentage is worst in the Texas League. Snelling’s stuff has taken a step back this year, and he’s proving much more hittable. He’s young and many young pitching prospects have a setback like this before making adjustments and regrouping (see MacKenzie Gore’s 2021 season as an example). But he needs to regroup. Zac Veen, OF, Rockies Veen may be on a brief departure before returning to the Top 100. He’s on a rehab assignment after spending the past five weeks on the injury list, after having his 2023 season wrecked by injuries. Veen’s dropping is partly to get other prospects onto the 100. The difference between being on and off the list at the back of the 100 is a narrow margin. Robert Gasser, LHP, Brewers Gasser was great in five starts with the Brewers. Unfortunately he’s blown out his elbow and just had Tommy John surgery, which will sideline him until late in the 2025 season at the minimum. Gasser remains a solid pitching prospect, but it’s hard to stick at the back of the Top 100 when you have to come back from major surgery. Adam Mazur, RHP, Padres Mazur made it up to the majors, but big league hitters gave him a lengthy to-do list for when he returned to Triple-A. The shocking development was Mazur’s 16.5% walk rate. He’s had a 4.3% walk rate in his MiLB career. But Mazur doesn’t really have an out pitch in the majors, which meant he had to nibble a lot more. Cade Cavalli, RHP, Nationals Cavalli’s return from Tommy John surgery hit another setback as he’s missed time with the flu. Cavalli’s stuff has been solid in his post-Tommy John return, but he’s thrown just 8.1 innings in six weeks since he first returned to the mound. Victor Scott, OF, Cardinals Scott hit .323 in the Texas League last year while tying for the MiLB lead in stolen bases. After a stint in the majors, he’s hitting .209/.282/.284 this year at Triple-A Memphis. He’s a better hitter than that, but he needs to chase fewer pitches out of the zone. June Big Moves Up In The June Update Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates (Up 4 Spots In The Top 10): Skenes’ MLB debut has been about as impressive as could have been imagined. He’ll graduate in roughly five starts, but he’s a comfortable No. 1 prospect until then. Noah Schultz, LHP, White Sox (Up 17 Spots): Schultz has struck out 40% of all batters he has faced this year. Few lefty starters can match his combination of fastball velocity (mid 90s and touching 97-98) and a devastating slider that he can throw for strikes or out of the zone on command. Chicago has kept him on very tight pitch limits, which is the biggest concern. He hasn’t demonstrated an ability to shoulder MLB-style starter workloads yet. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Red Sox (Up 8 Spots): Mayer has shown that his second-half struggles in 2023 were largely because of an injured wrist. He remains one of the best shortstop prospects in the game. Carson Williams, SS, Rays (Up 15 Spots): Williams is a sure-fire shortstop defensively, and he has long shown power potential. The biggest question has been his bat-to-ball skills and pure hitting ability. His .297 average is third best in the Southern League, and he’s first in the league in slugging percentage, extra-base hits, doubles and total bases and is second in triples and home runs. There are still some concerns about whether he’s a fringe-average or average hitter, but he’s alleviating concerns that his bat could hold him back. Colt Emerson, SS, Mariners (Up 21 Spots): In our reporting to build the June update, no prospect (other than Aidan Miller) got more positive feedback than Emerson. He’s not a slam dunk to stay at shortstop, but he’s sure to stay at a premium position defensively, and he projects as an above-average hitter wherever he plays. He’s dealing with a fracture because he fouled a ball off his foot, but that shouldn’t derail his season. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Twins (Up 23 Spots): Rodriguez is a divisive prospect because he’s so extreme in his approach. No prospect swings less than Rodriguez. That leads to strikeouts and walks, but when he does swing Rodriguez hits plenty of stung line drives and home runs. Aidan Miller, SS, Phillies (Up 52 Spots): Miller is the breakout prospect of the first half of the 2024 MiLB season. He missed time in his senior season of high school with a hamate injury. Now that he’s fully healthy, he is showing why he was considered one of the best hitters in the 2023 prep class. Tink Hence, RHP, Cardinals (Up 36 Spots): The ranking was updated before Hence left his June 5 start early and walked to the clubhouse with a trainer. Few MiLB pitchers can match Hence’s pure stuff, and he’s showing the feel to set up hitters to go with that stuff. Chase Dollander, RHP, Rockies (Up 22 Spots): Dollander so far looks more like the dominating 2022 starter than the 2023 less consistent starter. It’s an encouraging start. Christian Scott, RHP, Mets (Up 29 Spots): Scott’s MLB debut has been everything that could have been expected or hoped, even if the Mets have briefly sent him back to Triple-A. Scott projects more as a durable mid-to-back of the rotation starter than an ace, but there’s plenty of value to that, especially for a pitcher who is ready to handle that role. Xavier Isaac, 1B, Rays (Up 13 Spots): Isaac is a first base-only prospect. That’s a demographic rarely cracks the Top 50, but Isaac is an advanced hitter with big-time power. He’s convincing a lot of skeptical scouts. Lazaro Montes, OF, Mariners (Up 30 Spots): Montes is never going to provide a ton of defensive value, but if a corner outfielder/DH/first base type can mash, that becomes less of an issue–see Yordan Alvarez for an example. Montes has the rare ability to hit for average and power as a long-levered, impressive physical specimen. Starlyn Caba, SS, Phillies (Up 39 Spots): Even with Andrew Painter on the injured list and Mick Abel struggling, it’s been an excellent start to the season for Phillies prospects. Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Guardians (Up 19 Spots): Manzardo is a split-camp prospect, but he’s playing regularly in Cleveland and could graduate before next month’s update. Moises Ballesteros, C, Cubs (Up 24 Spots): Some evaluators question whether Ballesteros is too big to catch. There are fewer questions about his bat, as he’s marrying solid swing decisions with big power. Jonny Farmelo, OF, Mariners (Up 34 Spots): Picking your favorite Low-A Modesto prospect is a challenging task. Three of them cracked this list of prospects who have taken big steps up. Farmelo is a very promising hitter with solid athleticism. Kevin Alcantara, OF, Cubs (Up 20 Spots): His stats so far this year are solid but unspectacular, but in our reporting we got feedback that Alcantara’s steadily improving approach and big tools were worth a bump. Logan Evans, RHP, Mariners (Up 14 Spots): If you’re finding flaws, Evans may lack a true strikeout pitch, but his slider is plus and he mixes pitches, works down in the zone and has plus control. Add it all up and he should be a durable, reliable starting pitcher. Big Moves Down In The June Update Max Clark, OF, Tigers (Down -13 Spots): Clark is one of the most decorated prep hitters of the last few draft cycles. A twitchy center fielder with strong contact skills and projectable power, there’s still a lot to like about Clark’s future. He’s still showing those strong plate skills as a professional, but the lack of impact in his bat has some scouts worried it’s just fringe-average power. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs (Down -13 Spots): Few evaluators question Crow-Armstrong’s elite defensive chops in center field but his bat has many concerned. While Crow-Armstrong has the ability to flash a dynamic power and speed combination, his habit of expanding the zone far too often likely limits his offensive impact. While Crow-Armstrong dropped, it was more of a recalibration of prospect stock on an easy future everyday regular. Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Brewers (Down -27 Spots): Misiorowski’s prospect stock soared like a rocket in 2023 as he climbed into the top 25 of the Top 100. Unfortunately, Misiorowski’s command has gone from a concern to a major worry for evaluators. Misiorowski has made 15 starts dating back to 2023 and he has continually struggled to throw strikes. Over 10 starts this season, Misiorowski has walked 18% of the batters he’s faced. Spencer Jones, OF, Yankees (Down -26 Spots): Jones’ combination of size and tools is nearly unmatched, but his swing-and-miss issues have led to questions about whether he’ll hit major league pitching. Jones started the season on the injury list and has been a slow starter with the Yankees’ Double-A affiliate in Somerset. Jones still possesses exciting upside with easy plus-plus power and athleticism. He needs to refine his contact skills to get the most out of his tools. Robby Snelling, LHP, Padres (Down -47 Spots): Snelling enjoyed a meteoric rise, going from Nevada prep pick to Baseball America’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year in a little over a year. His start to 2024 hasn’t been so stupendous. Over nine starts with Double-A San Antonio, Snelling has struck out just 19.5% of batters he’s faced while walking 10.8% of hitters. Evaluators have questions around the quality of Snelling’s stuff, with a fastball that sits just 92-93 mph with dead-zone shape. Snelling’s two primary secondaries have also missed a below-average amount of bats this season. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Blue Jays (Down -19 Spots): Few players received as much move up feedback from industry sources as Tiedemann prior to his May injury last year. Since then, he’s shown flashes of dominance while rising to the top 25 of the list, but far too often he’s on the injury list. The concern around Tiedemann’s health has many high-level decision makers throughout the game concerned about his long-term viability as a starter. Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pirates (Down -16 Spots): Drafted as a two-way prep standout from the Georgia prep ranks, the Pirates have developed Chandler as a pitcher. There’s good reason behind this logic, as Chandler possesses an easy plus fastball sitting 95-97 mph with well above-average vertical break and a low release height. Despite jaw-dropping stuff, Chandler’s command has limited him from consistent success as a starter. In 2024, Chandler is walking 13.3% of batters he’s faced this season. Chandler’s command woes have led many evaluators throughout the game to place a future relief role on Chandler. Brady House, 3B, Nationals (Down -36 Spots): House’s resurgent 2023 campaign put House’s injury issues in the rear view mirror, but 2024 hasn’t been quite so friendly. House is hitting .236/.322/.421 over 49 Double-A games with a 29.2% strikeout rate. House’s average plate skills have bottomed out this season as he’s running a high whiff rate and a fringy chase rate. Evaluators across the game have been less than impressed with House’s hitting ability and question how much impact he’ll have long term. Luis Morales, RHP, Athletics (Down -24 Spots): Morales is among the most exciting prospects in the Athletics farm system. Signed out of Cuba for $3 million in January of 2023. After an exciting professional debut in 2023, Morales has had an inconsistent season. Morales began the year on the injury list with shoulder fatigue and his swing and miss stuff has been noticeably absent since he returned. Morales still has tantalizing upside but the 2024 season has provided a reason for recalibration. Victor Scott II, OF, Cardinals (Down -20 Spots): Scott was rushed to the big leagues to begin the 2024 season due to a rash of injuries to the Cardinals starting outfield corps. Scott looked overmatched against big league pitching and was jettisoned to Triple-A Memphis. Since his demotion Scott has struggled to hit the ball with impact and is hitting .216/.307/.321 over 36 games with Memphis. Many believe that Scott will settle in, as his contact skills show strong underlying traits, but there’s a need to adjust expectations around the speedy outfielder. Moving On Luis Perales, RHP, Red Sox (No. 57) Angel Genao, SS, Guardians (No. 65) Luke Keaschall, 2B, Twins (No. 66) Kevin McGonigle, SS, Tigers (No. 67) Thomas White, LHP, Marlins (No. 73) Ralphy Velazquez, 1B, Guardians (No. 84) Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP, Braves (No. 92) Blade Tidwell, RHP, Mets (No. 94) Brandon Sproat, RHP, Mets (No. 97) Quinn Mathews, LHP, Cardinals (No. 98) Cade Povich, LHP, Orioles (No. 99) Zebby Matthews, RHP, Twins (No. 100) You can read about all 12 additions here. Graduated Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers Evan Carter, OF, Rangers Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers Jackson Merrill, OF, Padres Colt Keith, 3B, Tigers Austin Wells, C, Yankees Tyler Soderstrom, C, Athletics Jared Jones, RHP, Pirates Andy Pages, OF, Dodgers Dropped Out Dylan Lesko, RHP, Padres: The expectation was that Lesko would show the command and control he’d had before his Tommy John surgery to go with the stuff that returned in his late-2023 return. Unfortunately for Lesko, that hasn’t happened. He’s throwing strikes on just 55% of his pitches, far below the typical 61-63% seen from starting pitchers and a drop from the 60% he threw in 2023. His plus changeup is still effective, but he has to regain the feel for his fastball. He’s not getting hit hard, but his control is currently well below-average and has to improve. Mick Abel, RHP, Phillies: Abel’s command is going to have to improve for him to be a big league starter, but this spring he’s added another issue–his stuff is just not what it once was. He’s now sitting 93-94 and topping out at 95-96, where he once sat 95 and touched 99. With less arm speed and below-average control, there’s a lot remaining on his to-do list. Shane Baz, RHP, Rays: We kept Baz on the Top 100 for a year and a half as he rehabbed for Tommy John surgery. He finally returned to the field in early May, but so far he hasn’t looked like the dominating pitcher he was pre-injury. His stuff is a tick down in velocity and sharpness so far. Post-surgery rust for a pitcher is not uncommon, but the feedback we received was to drop him off for now and circle back if and when his stuff returns to his pre-injury form. Roderick Arias, SS, Yankees: Arias was a pick-to-click among scouts, coaches and front office officials who saw him dominate the Florida Complex League last season. That ardor has cooled as he’s found the Florida State League to be much tougher to handle. He was one of the players who received the most consistent feedback from evaluators to drop off the Top 100. He’s still very young and could bounce back, but he’s not a Top 100 Prospect at this time. Tekoah Roby, RHP, Cardinals: In a return to the Texas League, Roby has regressed. He’s giving up more hard contact, walking more hitters and struggling with consistency. His stuff isn’t all that much different from 2023, so the hope is he’ll bounce back, but it’s been a rough first half of the season. Termarr Johnson, 2B, Pirates: Johnson drew rave reviews as a hitter in high school. He was viewed by many scouts as one of the best pure hitters they’d seen in years. No one is saying that in 2024. Johnson still draws walks, but he’s neither hitting the ball with authority nor spraying contact all around the field. For a bat-first infielder, that’s a worrisome trend. The hope is that he’ll regain his timing and confidence at the plate, but a .205/.381/.343 slash line in High-A is less than was expected. Connor Phillips, RHP, Reds: It’s been a rough year for a number of Reds’ prospects, but few have had it rougher than Phillips. His 8.49 walks per nine innings are the worst in the full season minors. In most of his outings, he doesn’t have any pitch that he commands well enough to turn to when he falls behind in counts. Until he throws more strikes, he’s further from the majors than he was in 2023. Thomas Saggese, 2B, Cardinals: Saggese is a bat-first infielder with versatility. His spot on the Top 100 was based on him being one of the better hitting close-to-the-majors infielders. Saggese’s underlying metrics are better than his .228/.298/.394 stats for Triple-A Memphis may indicate, but the margins at the back of the Top 100 are thin, and we had a number of players we wanted to add to the 100. Yanquiel Fernandez, OF, Rockies: As Fernandez has gotten more upper-level exposure, he’s yet to show that he can adjust to pitchers who feed him a steady diet of breaking balls and changeups. He’ll kill a fastball in the zone, but he has to show he can also handle soft stuff away to be enough of a hitter to get to his power. Cam Collier, 3B, Reds: We slid Collier back on when he showed signs of an improved approach and better ability to do damage by pulling the ball in the air. Given another month, some of the same issues from 2023 are still apparent. He struggles to put together competitive at-bats against lefties (.127/.143/.255 with a 34% strikeout rate) and he’s reverted to hitting way too many grounders that are pounded into the dirt just ahead of home plate. As one pro scouting director put it, his still-young age for the level is doing a lot of the heavy lifting for his prospect status. George Lombard Jr., SS, Yankees: We were probably a little hasty with adding Lombard. The reports out of spring training were excellent and Lombard has a chance to be a very well-rounded prospect. But he’s yet to make a lot of impact at the plate. He slides back into the “keep an eye on” category for now.

ARTICLEMINORS Toronto Blue Jays: 2024 Midseason Top 30 Update July 9, 2024 July 9, 2024 Geoff Pontes 0 Comments Disappointment has been the overarching theme for the Blue Jays this year. The organization seems like it’s on the verge of selling before the trade deadline and a reset looks to be in order. On the farm, injuries have devastated their pitching ranks as young starters Brandon Barriera and Landon Maroudis both underwent hybrid elbow surgeries that combine Tommy John surgery and an internal brace. Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann’s injury woes have continued, as he’s rehabbing yet another injury. Promising lefthander Kendry Rojas has dealt with shoulder soreness that put him on the injury list. In all, it’s been a disappointing season for the Blue Jays with few bright spots. Baseball America subscribers can see the full updated Blue Jays Top 30 here. Notable risers, fallers, new additions and injury updates are below. Notable Risers Josh Kasevich, SS The 2022 draft set up as a potential windfall for the Blue Jays, as they had five picks inside the top 100. So far, only Kasevich and Alan Roden have remained bright spots. Kasevich lacks over-the-fence power, but he’s been one of the most difficult outs in the Eastern League so far in 2024. He has an advanced hit tool with the ability to provide average-or-better defense across the infield. Spencer Horwitz, 2B After three seasons of showing advanced bat-to-ball skills and approach, Horwitz has broken through to the Blue Jays’ lineup. Since Horwitz was promoted on June 8th he’s been one of the top-performing hitters for Toronto. The advanced plate skills Horwitz has shown for years are passing the test at the game’s highest level. Notable Fallers Brandon Barriera, LHP With two lost seasons, Barriera faces a long recovery from Tommy John surgery. Even prior to the injury, Barriera was showing inconsistent and, at times, depleted stuff. Notable New Additions 15. Ryan Jennings, RHP BA Grade/Risk: 45/High Track Record: Jennings spent five years playing college baseball, beginning his career with two all-conference seasons at Wharton JC (TX). He then transferred to Louisiana Tech, where he played two seasons for the Bulldogs. The Blue Jays drafted Jennings in the 4th round as a senior-sign money-saver. Jennings was assigned to High-A Vancouver to begin 2024. Scouting Report: Jennings is an undersized righthanded starter who’s found success on the strength of his fastball. Jennings mixes a four-seamer with a curveball, slider and changeup, with his fastball seeing nearly 60% usage. Jennings’ fastball sits 94-96 mph and shows heavy armside run and more vertical break than you’d expect from his tilt arm slot. Of his three secondaries, Jennings relies most heavily on his mid-80s gyro slider and low-80s curveball. Both miss an above-average number of bats, and he shows average command for both. Jennings uses his changeup infrequently. The Future: Long term, Jennings will likely head into a relief role where his fastball and combination of breaking balls will play. Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 30 | Control: 45 22. Eric Pardinho, RHP BA Grade/Risk: 40/High Track Record: Signed out of Brazil for $1.4 million during the 2017 international signing period, many considered Pardinho the top pitcher available that year. He impressed in his pro debut in 2018 but missed all of 2019 and 2020 with an elbow injury and subsequent Tommy John surgery. He returned to pitch in 2022, making three appearances in the Florida Complex League. Pardinho spent all of 2023 with High-A Vancouver working in relief. He broke camp with Double-A New Hampshire to start 2024, seeing promotion to Triple-A on June 18th. Scouting Report: After five years of injuries and inconsistent performance, Pardinho has found success as a power reliever in 2024. He mixes four different pitches in a fastball, slider, curveball and changeup. Pardinho’s fastball sits 93-95 mph and has been up to 98 mph this year, showing above-average ride and run from a low release height. His primary secondary is a mid-80s cut-slider that’s seen nearly one-to-one usage with his fastball. Pardinho’s changeup has been his best swing-and-miss pitch, getting his highest rates of swings, whiffs and chase swings. Pardinho also throws a curveball, but it’s rarely used. Overall, Pardinho shows fringe-average command of his arsenal. The Future: Pardinho is a one-inning power reliever who could make his debut later in 2024. Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 45 29. Riley Tirotta, 3B BA Grade/Risk: 40/High Track Record: Tirotta was drafted in the 12th round in 2021 out of Dayton and signed for $125,000. He slowly progressed up the minor league ladder, breaking out in 2024 and hitting his way to Triple-A by late May. At the halfway point of the season, Tirotta was among the leaders in wRC+ among all qualified minor league hitters. Scouting Report: Behind Tirotta’s 2024 breakout are adjustments to his swing that have resulted in better angles and top-tier contact quality. His contact is below-average, but he limits swings and misses with above-average-to-plus swing decisions. His ability to get on-base and hit for power drives his profile. He’s a fringe-average runner and a below-average defender that’s seen time at third base, first and the outfield corners. His arm is above-average, allowing him to play multiple positions without a true home. The Future: The Blue Jays have had success with productive minor league hitters with a lack of position, and Tirotta figures to be another bat-first utility type. Scouting Grades: Hitting: 40 | Power: 55 | Speed: 45 | Fielder: 40 | Arm: 55 30. Connor O’Halloran, LHP BA Grade/Risk: 40/High Track Record: A three-year member of Canada’s U-18 national team, O’Halloran is an Ontario native that took home the Big 10 Conference pitcher of the year award in 2023. The Blue Jays selected O’Halloran in the fifth round and assigned him directly to Dunedin. He began 2024 back in Dunedin before receiving promotion to High-A Vancouver after seven starts. O’Halloran’s father, Greg O’Halloran, is a former big leaguer who saw 11 at bats with the Marlins in 1994. Scouting Report: O’Halloran is a deceptive lefthander with a trio of pitches: A four-seam fastball, slider and changeup. His primary pitch is a slider, which he uses over 50% of the time. It sits 79-82 mph with gyro shape, and he has an uncanny ability to land it where he wants. His fastball is his second-most used pitch. It sits 88-90 mph from a five-foot release and has below-average movement. He also mixes in a changeup in the low-to-mid-80s with heavy armside run. O’Halloran shows plus command of his slider but below-average feel for his fastball and changeup. The Future: O’Halloran looks likely to develop into a slider-first reliever that gives lefties fits. Scouting Grades: Fastball: 40 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 45 Significant Injuries Brandon Barriera, LHP The concerns around Barriera’s health escalated to red flag territory this season when he needed a hybrid elbow surgery. The procedure is a combination of Tommy John surgery and an internal brace procedure. Landon Maroudis, RHP One of Blue Jays’ bright spots from minor league spring training, Maroudis was injured on April 21st. An elbow injury was announced, and a few weeks later it was reported that Maroudis underwent a hybrid elbow surgery in the same fashion as teammate Brandon Barriera. Kendry Rojas, LHP Shut down in April with shoulder soreness, Rojas is still working his way back from injury. He’s made two rehab starts and is expected to rejoin the Vancouver rotation this month.

Blue Jays mid season top 30 by BA...

RA9 is boss!

Because of the money you dingleberry, fWAR for pitchers suxxxxxxx.

Didn't know about this, he's already served his time on house arrest, wild.

Why would they? Doesn't make any sense for them to do that.

Good for him, great news.

Thanks tips.

Sure is, lol.

Bird's just got lucky AF, lol

Kind of weird nobody talked about this, to be honest.