Nox
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Everything posted by Nox
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This seems contrived. http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=758665
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I thought that was Breaking Blue? Ziiiinnngg. (I actually like Breaking Blue)
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I might be misreading what you said here but did Mitchel actually do this for hockey?
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NJH just padding erryone's thank ratio ITT.
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The infamous Pavel Brendl!!
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Who on earth has said McDavid isn't likely to be really good? f***, keep up.
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This is true but that method tends to fall apart when you're at the tails of the distribution. If Crosby is his only comp, you obviously can't just regress to that sub-population mean to optimally project future performance.
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What? If Edmonton turned that down they might as well fold the franchise. McDavid is maybe the best prospect ever but that does not guarantee he's even going to become a top 10 guy in the league.
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Brgerun needz moar pointz amirite?
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I'm about the biggest McDavid fanboy around but I don't think you realize how good Bergeron is. Any rational mean projection for McDavid would have him have him being less valuable than Bergeron has been throughout his career.
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I feel like actually projecting individual pitchers should be pretty low on the priority list. What you have now seems good to me.
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Maybe not but Bergeron might be a top 5 player in the whole league. Their top 6 would be pretty legit and you would have to wonder when they're going to tire completely of the perpetual rebuild. Bergeron would probably have to be 27 instead of 30 for them to really be tempted.
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You'd probably project him to be a top 6 fwd in his prime at this point. Maybe that's a shade optimistic. I think he's pretty good though.
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Hypothetical and obviously just fireballing, EDM gets #1 overall. Boston offers Bergeron + Pasternak + their #1 for McDavid. Who says no?
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This seems like a good ratio to me.
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Nobody is saying you should not update your projections/lineups based on new information/observations. That's the whole underpinning of Bayesian inference after all. However you can't apply undisclosed information to such a decision making framework. "I had to pull the experience card but I played 2000+ FD games last season... if I relied on projections solely I would not have finished the season with a profit." - Not to be a complete dick but I really find this claim dubious. Did you log every time you overrode your projection system? Did you log what the change was? Did you log why you decided to make the change?
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If the reasons are undisclosed, how can you possibly know it's because of something tangible and not just natural random variation?
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Other than obvious injury I wouldn't let your brain apply narrative. Especially when it comes to hot/cold. Not falling for hot/cold should be one of your biggest advantages over the market in fact.
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PS - If you guys want to know how to combine platoon splits of opposing players correctly, here's a good jumping off point: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/the_odds_ratio_method/ You can take the worked example as your working method and basically trust it. The conversation below the main post is good as always. Or you can setup a complete Bayesian network and really start having some nerd fun. In R, this might help: http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/gRain/index.html
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Sounds pretty reasonable to me.
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What heuristic are you using to translate POP to probability the game will be cancelled? Another thing to add perhaps (if you do this for FanDuel): Dinging players in late games as they can get scratched late (after the initial games start) and your lineups are locked in place. DraftKings allows you to change your lineup up until each individual player starts so that's obv not an issue?
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Good thoughts. If I were to guess, scheduling effects would be less of a big deal in baseball than in basketball or hockey.
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Let me clarify. I created a small program that realistically simulated NJH as both morbidly obese and very ugly. I also created a machine that ends his stupid life. I think this is something we can all get behind.
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C+++. It's new.
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Be nice to the robots. When they become superintelligent they might afford you a painless death.