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Nox

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Everything posted by Nox

  1. Nox
    Just think how valuable Kimbrell/Gagne would be if they were consistently used in their team's highest leverage situations. 3 run, 1 inning saves for the f***ing loss.
  2. Nox

    NHL Thread

    Nox replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    I don't really want Nash and Staal too badly (though I'm pretty sure they'll be taken). A top line of Crosby/Stammer/Duchene would be the most entertaining thing ever on big ice.
  3. Nox

    NHL Thread

    Nox replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    USA USA USA Very pleased with the anti-knowledge they displayed today. The bad news is that Canada will probably be just as dumb. The good news is that our replacement level is so high it basically doesn't matter.
  4. Nox
    This.
  5. Nox

    NHL Thread

    Nox replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    I just skimmed it. A couple of comments/questions: A) Does he talk anywhere about how he determined replacement level? That's not a trivial problem. I'm not sure why he's so concerned with the predictive power of an economic framework. That's not really what WAR is intended for.
  6. Nox
    Plus, projection don't like Ellsbury as a top 5 guy next year. http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=0&players=0&sort=22,d (And that's just the hitters)
  7. Nox
    But that assumes the BBWAA is a fair mediator here. I can't let them control the fate of even $10 of mine. *******s that they are.
  8. Nox
    That's where I'd put him with the information I have available to me. As for connorp's fulmination - Perhaps it's because it's the holidays or perhaps it's because I've grown to like him a poster but I find myself with no desire to tear that spiel down piece by piece. I'll only remark sadly, borrowing a notion from Wolfgang Pauli, that what he's put forth is not even wrong (that one's for you kcjayfan).
  9. Nox
    They did just agree to take on a Prince Fielder FA deal sans the two best years of it. That could easily be a disaster. I'm just not sold on that regime to be honest. Daniels has said quite a few stupid things publicly and a couple of his most recent moves are at least questionable. GM performance is affected just as much by random variation as player performance is. AA had the wool pulled over our eyes for a while. If even 1 of his previous big moves, like the Beltre signing, blew up I think general perception of them would be different. I'm not saying I think they're bad on the whole but I'm not ready label them as a top 5 front office either.
  10. Nox
    I think it's pretty obvious that the Oliver projection for his D is off. Oliver also doesn't even try to project hitter playing time properly. 600 PAs for everybody.
  11. Nox
    These jokes write themselves.
  12. Nox
    One thing to note re: the Szymborski comments, his $/WAR is based off Cameron's method and is almost certainly low/wrong.
  13. Nox
    Yup. Any long term projection is to be taken with a grain of salt (large, large error bars). But even if you regressed him 100% to the mean across every category for every year in that contract, that's only ~14 wins. And I'd definitely be taking the under on 2 WAR for his age 38 season.
  14. Nox
    I'm guessing he has at least 2 of them on his DDL team.
  15. Nox
    That ages too. Drastically. If you want a narrative for that, try this: As a player ages, his bat slows down. This is noticed by pitchers/catchers across the league. They start challenging the hitter on the inner 3rd with velo. To compensate, the hitter cheats more and starts his swing before he's used to. Because of that, the time his former abilities afforded to recognize and take borderline pitches degrades significantly. That has a direct effect on OBP (and basically every other offensive skill). Bat speed does not just equal power. It's effect is wide ranging on a player's offensive profile. Once that goes, things can get ugly.
  16. Nox
    Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski12m In straight dollars, ZiPS evaluates Choo deal as 3rd worst in MLB history at time of signing, behind A-Rod 2, Howard, just ahead Werth. Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski10m This is as RF. as a CF, ZIPS picks the Choo deal as only a couple million worse than the Howard deal.
  17. Nox
    As an aside, #2975 why Oliver projections looks sketchy: It has Choo as a +2 defender. I can't fathom how they've come up with that number.
  18. Nox
    Don't really love this deal tbh. The Rangers are going to be good (obviously) but $130M for Choo's decline years is quite a bit. I can't imagine projections over the next year would look much different than: 3.2 2.5 2 2 1.5 1.5 1 13 Wins @ $8M = 104. With inflation and their position on the win curve up front I guess it's justifiable. But it's no steal (not that anyone has claimed that it was). FWIW, someone in the know's response to this: "Lol Rangers.". So there's that.
  19. Nox
    Too late, I've reported you.
  20. Nox
    Anxiously awaiting the opportunity to throw down an 80 bat flip on a DJKneePad meatball.
  21. Nox
    Having Harper painted as a disappointment is perhaps Trout's most telling accomplishment.
  22. Nox
    I'm more of a Trout guy myself.
  23. Nox
    Cosigned. Donate his "thanked" count to charity. It is Christmas after all.
  24. Nox

    NHL Thread

    Nox replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    11 regulation wins in 37 games (A cherry picked 1 in their last 16). All possession metrics equally gory. Leafs are a disaster.
  25. Nox
    Don't worry guys. Moh You is a financial magnate and doesn't have much time to post here anyways.
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