Jimcanuck
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Everything posted by Jimcanuck
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That Tulo WAR projection looks eerily like the Reyes projection when he arrived in Toronto.
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He had 428 PA, fool. Averaged over 600 PA it's over 2 WAR
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Goins provided $11.2M of surplus value this year.
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WTF man, he was a key part of a winning team this year. He won a bunch of games with his glove and his bat.
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I said potentially worse. Significant talent went the other way in both cases (and I don't mean Reyes). -
Go ahead, drunken fool
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Sure, based on past results the predictive value is somewhere closer to 1 WAR. Those that believe Goins' new approach at the plate will continue to pay dividends will predict a higher value. My post is in response to Spanky "f***ing heads checked", "stupid is as stupid does". He is the stupid one for refusing to consider the possibility of a breakthrough season from Goins.
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Well AA has certainly been unpredictable that is true. But moving significant prospect talent to acquire Dickey in the first unsuccessful 'all-in move' and follow that up with potentially even worse moves to get Tulo and Price for the second unsuccessful 'all-in move' has set the organization back many years. The Leafs have proven trading youth for veterans rarely works out.
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if there was a Pillar poll this time last year and someone predicted +4 WAR, some would have literally died laughing Goins at +2 WAR from a full season at SS is certainly possible
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It's the silly season
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Going 'all-in' isn't much of a plan.
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Yay, Gruber is here. Popcorn time!
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The question has been elevated to can he stick as a starter.
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Time for the annual Goins discussion. What would he deliver as a full time SS? I voted 1.5 - 2.0 WAR.
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Team needs more than 1 SP. Two, or three if you don't trust Hutchison. Sanchez, Osuna, or Hendriks as SP cannot be for a full season.
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I understand all that. Ultimately projections come down to a talent assessment. There is no denying Goins is an above average to elite defender. At the plate he is not far below Pillar. I see Goins as everyday SS having the potential to be 2016's Pillar.
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There is something called a budget.
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But $20M buys at least 2 WAR on the pitching side.
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Goins as starter (mostly at 2B) over the full 2015 season has a WAR of ~2, which puts him #6 in that list of AL SS. Accounting for positional adjustment, Goins at SS over a full season is probably a lock for 2 WAR or more. SS positional adjustment +7.5, 2B +2.5
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http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=200&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Over a full season Goins is likely an average AL SS. That's more a reflection of the quality of SS than the quality of Goins..... but Goins as starting SS is realistic.
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He could have a couple of elite seasons left in him. His career WAR max is 5.6 Realistically, we are looking at a guy that will be on the field at the frequency of Reyes, which limits his WAR total. 4 WAR is what can realistically be expected, and even that may be optimistic
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The $20M would come in handy with a deep FA pitching market. Goins @ SS, 'spects, and $20M for pitching > Tulo in my estimation
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I don't mind a barely replacement level, great glove at SS on a good offensive team
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More risk with the older Price. Plus sign Heyward and move Tulo and EE for the pitching.
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So Tulo is staying
