Who Is Shane Bieber and What Can He Bring to the Blue Jays?

It's not 2015 and he’s not David Price, but Shane Bieber has said goodbye to his friends in Cleveland and will bring the swag of a Cy Young pedigree north of the border.

Bieber was drafted by Cleveland in 2016 and made his debut with them in 2018, throwing over 100 innings in his rookie season. In 2020, he was the unanimous choice as the AL Cy Young winner in the pandemic-shortened season, as he led the league in ERA, FIP, strikeouts, wins and a number of other categories. Now, a lot has changed since 2020, but Owen Hill recently wrote about a number one starter being on the Jays' trade deadline wishlist, and the hope is that Bieber can step up and say, “I’m the One.” It doesn’t take much to envision a future in which Bieber adds more hardware to his cabinet with Toronto. ALCS MVP, maybe? Never say never.

Before we get to what could be, let's take a healthy look at the risks. First is the price that was paid. Back in February, Jays Centre had Khal Stephen as the #9 prospect in the organization, and he’s only moved up those rankings since. Depending on which source you look at, he was ranked as high as fifth system. That's a big price to pay considering the other big risk at play: Does anyone know if we’ll see that ace-level, Cy-worthy capability from Bieber, or will he be a ghost of his former self?

He is currently nearing the end of his rehab from Tommy John surgery and hasn’t pitched in the majors since April of last year. In 2024, he made two starts and pitched 12 innings before being sidelined with a right elbow injury that necessitated the TJ route - a heartbreaker for Cleveland. That wasn’t his first injury, though it has been his longest stretch of missed time to date. He also missed significant time in 2021 with a right shoulder strain, making 16 starts and throwing fewer than 100 innings. He still put up a 3.03 FIP and struck out 134 batters when healthy though. He also missed a chunk of time in 2023 with inflammation in that right elbow, a precursor to the injury in ‘24. Again, when he was healthy, he was generally serviceable with flashes of brilliance, and the Blue Jays will be hoping he can find that sweet spot when he completes his rehab and joins the rotation.

Bieber has a five-pitch mix and leans primarily on his fastball and slider. Speaking with MLB.com about his rehab performances, he sounded confident: “I had plenty of time to work and refine. I feel like my stuff is in a great spot, both from metrics and output, so I don't think I'll falter that much with a little bit of time off.” His four-seam fastball has been sitting between 92-94 mph in his rehab starts this year, and through 11 ⅓ innings, he has 21 strikeouts and a 1.59 ERA with only one walk. Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti also noted that Bieber’s changeup has had more depth to it than in the past. That changeup is a little atypical in that it is only about 3 mph slower than his fastball, but it comes with an additional 13 inches of vertical break on average; this strikeout of Seth Brown in 2024 is a great example.

Bieber also has five career starts against the Jays and has picked up three wins to go along with one loss and one no-decision. The most memorable of those wins came in 2019 when he went nine innings, shutting out the Jays and holding them to one hit (a seventh-inning ground rule double by Eric Sogard). All three of Bieber’s wins came at the Rogers Centre, so here’s hoping that there’s some magic in the building he can tap into. 

The reality of Bieber’s injury history means that whatever recent stats anyone is looking at are all subject to a small sample warning. So, the risk is high, but the potential reward is too. At the time of this writing, there are still five-plus hours left until the trade deadline, and I would hope Toronto isn’t done adding, but if Bieber can hop on that red eye, get a private landing at Pearson Airport and become a stabilizing presence as the Jays push for playoff glory, he might make us look back at this trade as a lot closer to the David Price deal than we realize.