Are the Blue Jays Still the Favourites To Win the AL Rookie of the Year?

Editor's Note: Bryan originally wrote this article the day before the news broke that Trey Yesavage would start the 2026 season on the injured list. I wasn't sure what to do with it at first, but given the encouraging news about Yesavage’s ramp-up (he'll throw a three-inning simulated game on Friday) and Kazuma Okamoto's red-hot start to the season (2 HR, .300 BA, .991 OPS), I decided to run the story today.

The last time the Toronto Blue Jays won the AL Rookie of the Year Award was in 2002, when Halle Berry won an Oscar for Best Actress for her role in Monster’s Ball, the New England Patriots won their first Super Bowl, and the “Rally Monkey” became famous, leading the then Anaheim Angels to a World Series title.

In that season, the Toronto Blue Jays finished 78-84 under manager Buck Martinez, but Eric Hinske took home the AL's top rookie prize. The third baseman hit 24 home runs, scored 99 times, knocked in 84 runs, and stole 13 bases. 

It’s hard to believe that Hinske was the last Blue Jay to win the Rookie of the Year Award, but the team hasn’t had many standout rookie performances since then. The only one that was worthy of serious consideration for the award was Marcus Stroman’s 2014 season, in which he had a record of 11-6, a 3.65 ERA, and struck out 111 batters. Yet, 2014 was a competitive year, and Stroman didn't even receive a single down-ballot vote. Only six Blue Jays have received ROY votes in the last 23 seasons, and none have finished higher than fourth. 

The wait may be over this year, as the Blue Jays have not one but two of the frontrunners for the award: Trey Yesavage and Kazuma Okamoto. Prior to the news of Yesavage's IL stint and Kevin McGonigle's promotion, many sources had Yesavage and Okamoto as the two favourites.

At the end of last season, Yesavage started three games, in which he posted a 3.21 ERA and had a 16:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In the postseason, he came up clutch in several big games. In Game 2 of the ALCS, he helped the Blue Jays take a 2-0 series lead. The rookie threw 5 1/3 innings against the New York Yankees, striking out 11 batters. 

In Game 6 of the ALDS, Yesavage helped the Blue Jays even the series 3-3 after throwing 5 2/3 strong innings while striking out seven Seattle Mariners batters. In Game 5 of the World Series, he threw seven innings and struck out 12 Los Angeles Dodgers hitters. He got the win to give the Jays a 3-2 series lead, though we all know how that ended. This success is why the righty was the frontrunner for the Rookie of the Year Award as recently as two weeks ago. If he continues to ramp up on schedule, he has plenty of time to get back in the race.

Yesavage’s teammate Okamoto also has a strong case to claim the award. He will be playing his first season in America and in MLB. In Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan, Okamoto hit at least 25 home runs in seven straight seasons before an elbow injury broke that streak in 2025. Though, he was on a good pace to extend the streak with 15 homers halfway through the season. 

Okamoto has begun his MLB career with a five-game hitting streak, two home runs, and four runs scored, including the game-winning run on Opening Day. His defense at third base has looked sharp, albeit in a tiny sample. 

Thanks to Yesavage and Okamoto, Toronto's chances of winning the Rookie of the Year Award look better than they have in a long time. That said, the Jays' rookies have stiff competition. In addition to McGonigle (Detroit Tigers), other top contenders include Carter Jensen (Kansas City Royals), Chase DeLauter (Cleveland Guardians), Samuel Basallo (Baltimore Orioles), and Okamoto's fellow NPB All-Stars Munetaka Murakami (Chicago White Sox) and Tatsuya Imai (Houston Astros). 

Perhaps neither Okamoto nor Yesavage is the favourite on his own, but together, they might give Toronto better odds than any other AL team. So, while the competition is fierce, the Blue Jays are still in a great position to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award for the first time since 2002.