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If this was actually true (which its not), you could rest all of your star offensive players when you knew a pitcher was going to put up zeros. Statistics do not work that way.

His stats do not suggest "he'll get on a "roll". they suggest his good games are very good and his bad games are bad. Statistics cant determine timing in that way.

ok. AA: hi guys i want shark Rick hahn/Ken williams: ok, propose something AA: max pentecost Rick hahn/Ken williams: not enough, already considering a better package AA: but max is worth slightly more than what you can get with your comp pick Rick hahn/Ken williams: i dont care. Someone is willing to give me more This dialogue represents something called demand.

Yes. I watch the games. Pitching is far bigger problem. Outside of Buehrle and maybe Sanchez nobody can be counted on for anything. Defense is correlated and offense is exponential but when you are putting guys out there like Hutch, Estrada - the value add of Pompey's D or Travis' isnt going to matter. Hutch looks good on fangraphs but every 3 starts he gets banged around. Estrada same thing (and the HR issue). Dickey is stuck on the team, but atleast he's gonna give you around 6 ip every start. Hutch in SD could be very good. Playoff push: Buehrle Cashner Kennedy Sanchez Dickey Osuna Estrada Delabar Loup Delabar Cecil Hendriks 2016 sub Norris and Stroman for Buehrle and Kennedy.

Yes, and Hutch is the only with value (yrs control) worth trading. Again, I think SD could get more by trading those guys individually. Would obviously depend on the additional prospect.

Its not great, but its better than bundling pitching prospects and getting screwed. I only suggest that because we have internal options at those positions. If we keep our pitching intact the offense is good enough to win with goins or pillar.

Last one: Hutch + non pitching prospect for Cashner and Kennedy That one takes balls but it could be our best deal for 2015/2016. if those guys turn it around you have added more value than adding shark, hamels, cueto

I think they could even beat pentecost/pompey. But i do that deal all day given our current situation.

I hope you are right but i dont think you are.

Sure. The way I see us having a chance at a guy like Shark is to use Position players for pitching and take on CWS excess salary. So like Travis or Pompey for Carl Edwards Jr, flip Edwards, Pentecost, Collabello for Shark and Laroche. You can justify taking on deadweight when the future value of discount from minors pitching potentially far outweighs cash outlay for a guy like Laroche. If you can make a deal for Shark without touching upper minors pitching, trading roster offense makes a ton of sense to me. Paying Laroche in 2016 seems ok when you maintain ability to pay Hoffman, Norris, Castro peanuts long term. Pompey has Pillar and half of Travis has Goins. Our pitching sucks and injuries happen

Way to be descriptive. I'm obviously just brainstorming. Cashner/Kennedy Gray Carl Edwards Jr. These are the types of guys we will realistally add. Not Hamels/Shark/Cueto

Main point is that i forsee us getting a 2/3 rental from a seller and a controllable guy. My package of non pitchers and castro doesnt change outlook much and eliminates risk of hoffman/norris coming back to hanut us

Flip travis for something else in 3 way then

Gray is good

Obv i was referring to 2017

Stroman Gray Sanchez Norris Hoffman/Harris Hutch to BP

jon gray and jorge de la rosa for: Devon travis, dalton pompey, castro Pretty much 2 for 1 then de la rosa for castro since theyd have no pitching left

PS - 1. Pompey and Pillar have enhanced external value due to each other's existence. 2. Saunders cost in 2016 can also likely be recouped (traded for something cheap or 2017 IFA $ if that is allowed. Worst case scenario, non tender if knee is dead). I'd rather take my chances with a lack of depth in the OF for the next year and a half than miss out on addressing a clear pitching need in a year where we have a shot. 3. Collabello has value and Id consider using him in trade since smoak is a thing. (Three way deal where third party wants a cheap bat now - maybe it softens blow to farm). Maybe we just trade him straight up for a lot of cash (see 2020 free agency). 4. If you still cant get beyond the supposed fixed annual budget - Dont count out a deferral of salary by Joey or EE. If it gets past the union, playoffs mean more FA $ or atleast extension leverage for those two. Its not bad business by them with free agency in 2017. there are more than enough options to make the Hamels money work. Heres the aggregate of the above: Hamels and Papelbon and $10M-20M (or IFA $ for 2017 if allowed) for: Pompey One of Castro, Norris, Sanchez or Hoffman Boyd Another mid tier prospect depending on who of 4 above included Third team that pays phillies cash they flip to us and also gives us 2017 IFA $ Saunders Collabello $ contribution is directly correlated with 4th prospect that could also come from third party. Bautista and EE defer some money So a third team (probably AL) Effectively signs collabello mid year and gets saunders for 2015 and the right to keep him beyond that or nontender. The phillies get a boatload of prospects dependant on how much $ we need and how much collabello goes for. And we get hamels and pappelbon and a lot of money (via shedding and cash and deferral) Some of this may not be allowed. Just makes sense to me since we need $, another team prob needs bats and has $ but not prospects and the phillies prob dont want to spend as they begin rebuild. Maybe im overstating collabellos $ value but i think he is the key to making the making $ work. If anything - collabello at 10M + another 10m of real salary for 4 and a half years aint bad. Hes a DH so it only works for AL team rolling the dice.

One of Hoffman, Castro and Norris + Pompey is at least what it takes to get Hamels IMO. Similar to the Dickey and Miami trades, the inherent value includes prevention. Prevention is the opposite of opportunity cost. Or the conservative assumption that a division rival has the ability to make a similar trade. Prevention is a world where value and dollars do not exist. Value is a sunk assumption. In this case, Hamels carries the most prevention risk. Hamels on another AL East roster for three years carries consideration just like his prospect and monetary cost. For Samardijiza and Cueto, the only prevention assumption is 2015. The Dickey trade sucked. But in my world of prevention I don't view the Miami trade as a major loss. Maybe just a minor one. Consider my model.

Good to know.

Hoffman, Norris and Castro are potential near term cost savers. Maybe 2/3 amount to something. We dont know, but you cant part with two of these three. Alford I'd be afraid because we havent seen enough. Pompey is the guy with valuation power I'd take my chances on. The rest to me are either too far off or depth deal guys at this point. I'm not going to suggest I can predict the future. Just my gut.

Yes, I wrote that in my post.

Group 1: Hoffman, Norris, Castro, Alford Group 2: Pompey, Pentecost, Reid Foley, Urena, Labourt, Boyd, Tellez, Lugo, Tirado Group 3: 2015 Draft: Harris, Singer, Maese, Wise I'm sure I am forgetting other notables. Is it possible to get a front line starter without tapping into group #1 and possibly using group #3 as PTBNL? My first choice is Hamels we will overpay no matter what so I'd rather lock in yrs if we are depleting the farm. Realistically, I'd consider utilizing one group #1 guy but anymore would be tough. The Dickey trade used two clear group #1s.

No. I am expecting them not to say anything positive in a headline when the team loses. I dont read the articles nor do most people.

One more thing. I hate the yankees as much as the last guy, but when the yanks are sucking, Michael Kay won't suggest otherwise.