I take xFIP with a grain of salt. If he's limiting batters to an average exit velo of 84.4, that's going to reduce the home run rate. Whether that's sustainable or not I guess is the question, but I kinda feel like xFIP is gonna go the way of the dinosaur with all the statcast info.
The evolution of DIPS has been very interesting. First, there was the widely accepted theory that pitchers had no control over their BABIP. Pretty sure this is now a thing of the past; some pitchers are able to suppress BABIP to a degree, and what's interesting about that is that it's, in some cases, made ERA a better measuring stick for some pitchers. Guy that immediately comes to mind is Darren O'Day.
Then now the working theory with xFIP is that, in theory, every pitcher should have the same number of fly balls being converted to home runs, but I think this is also going by the way side as we have access to more information. Some guys appear to have a legitimate skill when it comes to limiting hard contact. I'd really like to have seen the statcast numbers for a guy like Mariano Rivera, who had one of the nastiest cut fastballs of all time and was surely excellent at inducing weak contact because he was consistently able to keep the ball off the barrel of the bat.
All this to say, Dolis has some command issues that I think might iron out in time. If not, I don't really think he's going to regress to his xFIP as the stats so far and watching him pitch, indicate that he's good at inducing soft contact. If I'm not wrong, these numbers should stabilize fairly quickly as they are per at bat based data points. If you all remember, JFaS (autocorrect tried to change that to Judas, accurate) invented TIPS, which got him some widespread acclaim as one of the first DIPS metrics to incorporate per pitch events which resulted in a far superior ERA estimator for relievers, who typically had much fewer innings pitched per year and FIP and xFIP tended to do a poor job of capturing their performance.
All this to say, Dolis might actually be really good. He turns your average hitter into Danny Jansen, which is a good thing for the Jays since Danny Jansen f***ing sucks *******s.
I might be really dumb for writing this