4) Chris Paddack, RHP
Age: 22
37.2 IP, 1.91 ERA, 2.31 FIP, 27% K, 3% BB, .176 BAA (AA)
Highest Level: AA
Paddack made the biggest leap into relevance in 2018 compared to nearly any other pitching prospect. He was traded for Fernando Rodney in 2016, flashing his dominant, plus-plus changeup before needing Tommy John surgery. He returned in 2018 and posted a 1.79 FIP over 52 1/3 innings with Lake Elsinore before hopping to San Antonio and producing nearly identical peripheral results. His post-surgery progress vaulted him to a projected 2019 debut with the chance to immediately post an above-average ERA and a K/9 above 9 upon his debut despite a small downtick in swing-and-miss stuff in Double-A. There may be a chance he hit a high right after Tommy John and the future may not be as dominant, but that’s an unlikely, setback-laden outcome that I have no right to project.
His primary offspeed pitch is a buggs-bunny changuep that is truly plus-plus, completely buckling nearly all left-handed hitters who see it and naturally giving him inverted splits. He throws the pitch to right-handed hitters with success as well, but will mix in a curveball to vary his offerings. The pitch projects to be average long term, while his fastball has plus life and run, generating a substantial amount of swing and miss when elevated. It lands as a future above average offering. The bow tying this all together is Paddack’s plus command, a trait he shares with Gore.
On top of the command are quiet mechanics. He often uses a slight hesitation during his windup, sitting on his back leg with a high, active glove arm that allows him to rotate exceptionally well. Because he is more of a rotator than a driver off his back foot, his finish can appear slightly upright, but how he sits on his back leg fools the eye and allows his trunk to fly towards the plate and over his hips with an active front leg. His arm speed is exceptionally quick, creating the plus-plus action on his changeup from a high three-quarters arm slot.
Once upon a time, Paddack was below the majority of the Padres international starting pitchers—Baez, Morejon, etc. Now he is squarely above with a high enough floor to garner support as a top-three asset on this list to the right analyst. Paddack grades out as a 60 grade future value starter with a small band of outcomes, most of which project him to be a solid number-three starter with seasons of number-two ceiling.
ETA: 2019
The Padres' system is laughably deep:
https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/2019/1/5/san-diego-padres-top-30-prospects