Aaron Hill's career HR/FB is 8.5%. In 2007 it was 8.6% and he had 17 home runs over a full season that year. When he hit 36 homers his HR/FB was 14.9%. He never came close to 14.9% again. Closest was 11.2% and he never came close to hitting 36 again (26 twice). Hill hit 36 homers because he was lucky. Brett is hitting homeruns at a good rate this year because he's getting lucky too. Brett has a career low 10.7% line drive rate and a career high 19.4% strikeout rate.