I'm using Fangraphs payroll chart...
TORONTO BLUE JAYS PLAYER PAYROLL▼
Estimated 2026 Payroll:
$233M
Legend:
FREE AGENT
Club Option
Player Option
Mutual Option
Vesting Option
Estimated Final 2025 Payroll:
$258M
Estimated Value|Money Owed to Team
Players With Guaranteed Salaries▼
Player
Age
Service Time
Contract
AAV
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
26.7
6.157
14 yr, $500M (2026-39)
$35,714,286
$40,214,286
$40,214,286
$39,214,286
$38,214,286
$37,714,286
$37,714,286
$37,714,286
George Springer
36.2
11.166
6 yr, $150M (2021-26)
$25,000,000
$24,166,667
FREE AGENT
Kevin Gausman
34.9
11.151
5 yr, $110M (2022-26)
$22,000,000
$23,000,000
FREE AGENT
Andrés Giménez
27.2
5.106
7 yr, $106.5M (2023-29), 2030 club option
$19,371,429
$15,571,429
$23,571,429
$23,571,429
$23,571,429
$23,000,000
José Berríos
31.5
9.044
7 yr, $131M (2022-28); can opt out after 2026
$18,714,286
$18,714,286
$24,714,286
$24,714,286
FREE AGENT
Shane Bieber
30.5
7.097
2 yr, $26M (2025-26)
$14,555,102
$16,000,000
FREE AGENT
Anthony Santander
31.1
7.162
5 yr, $92.5M (2025-29), 2030 club option; can opt out after 2027; can void by picking up option; deferrals lower AAV
$14,314,441
$21,000,000
$21,000,000
$14,750,000
$12,750,000
$15,000,000
Alejandro Kirk
27.0
5.047
5 yr, $58M (2026-30)
$11,600,000
$8,700,000
$12,325,000
$12,325,000
$12,325,000
$12,325,000
FREE AGENT
Jeff Hoffman
32.9
7.084
3 yr, $33M (2025-27)
$11,000,000
$12,666,667
$12,666,667
FREE AGENT
Myles Straw
31.1
5.125
5 yr, $25M (2022-26), 2027-28 club options
$7,775,000
$7,400,000
$8,000,000
$8,500,000
Yimi García
35.2
10.149
2 yr, $15M (2025-26)
$7,500,000
$7,500,000
FREE AGENT
Yariel Rodríguez
28.7
2.000
5 yr, $32M (2024-27), 2028 player option; team has $10M club option if player option declined
$6,400,000
$7,000,000
$8,000,000
$6,000,000
Service time is updated through 2025.
Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2026 are courtesy of MLBTradeRumors,
which uses a model created by Matt Swartz.
Legend:
Estimated Arb
Players Eligible For Arbitration▼
Player
Age
Service Time
Contract
AAV
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Daulton Varsho
29.4
5.128
1 yr, TBD (2026)
$9,700,000
FREE AGENT
Eric Lauer
30.5
5.091
1 yr, TBD (2026)
$4,400,000
FREE AGENT
Ernie Clement
29.7
3.168
1 yr, TBD (2026)
$4,300,000
ARB 2
ARB 3
FREE AGENT
Tyler Heineman
34.4
3.066
1 yr, TBD (2026)
$1,000,000
ARB 2
ARB 3
FREE AGENT
Notable Players Not Yet Eligible For Arbitration▼
Player
Age
Service Time
Contract
AAV
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Bowden Francis
29.6
2.098
1 yr, TBD (2026)
TBD
ARB 1
ARB 2
ARB 3
FREE AGENT
Davis Schneider
26.8
2.029
1 yr, TBD (2026)
TBD
ARB 1
ARB 2
ARB 3
FREE AGENT
Louis Varland
27.9
1.163
1 yr, TBD (2026)
TBD
ARB 1
ARB 2
ARB 3
ARB 4
FREE AGENT
Brendon Little
29.3
1.135
1 yr, TBD (2026)
TBD
ARB 1
ARB 2
ARB 3
ARB 4
FREE AGENT
Addison Barger
26.0
1.103
1 yr, TBD (2026)
TBD
Pre-ARB
ARB 1
ARB 2
ARB 3
FREE AGENT
Nathan Lukes
31.3
1.145
1 yr, TBD (2026)
TBD
ARB 1
ARB 2
ARB 3
ARB 4
FREE AGENT
Braydon Fisher
25.3
0.145
1 yr, TBD (2026)
TBD
Pre-ARB
ARB 1
ARB 2
ARB 3
ARB 4
FREE AGENT
Trey Yesavage
22.3
0.014
1 yr, TBD (2026)
TBD
Pre-ARB
Pre-ARB
ARB 1
ARB 2
ARB 3
FREE AGENT
Estimated salaries for other pre-arbitration players
$14,040,000
Other Payments▼
Description
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Myles Straw signing bonus
-$400,000
Andrés Giménez signing bonus
-$571,429
-$571,429
-$571,429
-$571,429
$ owed from CLE (Myles Straw trade)
-$1,000,000
-$1,750,000
$ due for potential buyout of Myles Straw
$1,750,000
$ due for potential buyout of Anthony Santander
$5,000,000
$ due for potential buyout of Andrés Giménez
$2,500,000
Estimated Payroll
$233,401,904
$141,920,238
$114,003,571
$86,289,285
$57,539,286
$37,714,286
$37,714,286
Totals for estimated payrolls include potential buyouts and not option total
Other Payments (Luxury Tax)▼
Description
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Shane Bieber AAV adjustment (credited for unpaid buyout, prorated to time with team)
-$1,268,816
Luxury Tax Payroll Estimate▼
Description
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts (does not include players no longer on 40-man roster)
$193,944,543
$117,114,441
$99,714,441
$81,000,156
$47,314,286
$35,714,286
$35,714,286
Salaries for players eligible for arbitration
$19,400,000
AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts no longer on the 40-man roster
Sum of Other Payments (does not include potential buyouts)
-$1,971,429
-$2,321,429
-$571,429
-$571,429
Sum of Other Payments (Luxury Tax Only)
-$1,268,816
Estimated salaries for players not yet eligible for arbitration and other players with non-guaranteed contracts
$14,040,000
Estimated salaries for 40-man roster players in minor leagues
$2,500,000
$2,500,000
$2,500,000
$2,500,000
$2,500,000
$2,500,000
$2,500,000
Estimated player benefits to be paid
$18,000,000
$18,500,000
$19,000,000
$19,500,000
$20,000,000
$20,500,000
$21,000,000
Payment into $50M pre-arbitration bonus pool
$1,666,667
$1,666,667
$1,666,667
$1,666,667
$1,666,667
$1,666,667
$1,666,667
Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll
$246,310,965
$137,459,679
$122,309,679
$104,095,394
$71,480,953
$60,380,953
$60,880,953
Totals for estimated luxury tax payrolls include potential buyouts and not option total
LUXURY TAX EXPLANATION AND OTHER PAYROLL NOTES
The luxury tax thresholds for 2026 are $244M, $264M, $284M, $304M, with increasingly sharp penalties for surpassing each threshold.